Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 24, 2021

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DAY 116 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/25/2021 07:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.76°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.43°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.60°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.121 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -7 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 34 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.03 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.03 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 116 in SWE DAY: 24 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 366.40 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 42.33 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -168 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 1.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-01-25 07:00:08	OBSERVATION	2021	116	-168	24.76004	18.42998	21.59501	115.53946708333	0	0	6.03	6.03	T	F	-7.23996	33.76004	24	366.40241404738	42.333939657081	0.1209833455436	90	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-01-25 03:00:08	OBSERVATION	2021	116	-168	24.76004	18.42998	21.59501	115.53946708333	0	0	6.03	6.03	T	F	-7.23996	33.76004	24	366.40241404738	42.333939657081	0.1209833455436	90	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-01-24 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.05	20.27	24.16	115.34892268297	0.311	0.311	6.03	6.341	T	F	-3.95	37.05	24	366.29034608558	42.251196810142	0.23078094090469	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-24 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.45	21.55	25	115.68278340329	0.321	0.321	6.03	6.351	T	F	-3.55	37.45	24	366.48666926154	42.396197980378	0.24712699172373	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-24 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	27.61	21.08	24.345	116.05852393866	0.4144	0.4144	6.03	6.4444	T	F	-4.39	36.61	24	366.70742038116	42.55952192679	0.2135184697754	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-23 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.1	21.39	24.745	116.6457137033	0.408	0.418	6.03	6.448	T	F	-3.9	40.1	24	367.05197831744	42.815039977047	0.23279064709611	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-23 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.28	21.18	24.73	116.79836846619	0.4321	0.4421	6.03	6.4721	T	F	-3.72	40.28	24	367.14147069333	42.881524773256	0.24010536522352	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-23 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	29.21	21.07	25.14	116.84819413235	0.439	0.449	6.03	6.479	T	F	-2.79	41.21	24	367.17067299692	42.903230078049	0.27981200271005	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-23 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	27.7	20.29	23.995	117.2760995147	0.4756	0.4856	6.03	6.5156	T	T	-4.3	39.7	24	367.4213117802	43.089738324155	0.21698703287975	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-23 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.2	19.89	24.045	117.50055388529	0.4491	0.4691	6.03	6.4991	T	T	-3.8	40.2	24	367.55267348127	43.18764271607	0.23683903088452	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.06	19.86	23.96	117.62100810616	0.4756	0.4856	6.03	6.5156	T	T	-3.94	41.06	24	367.6231383229	43.240204132689	0.2311821065249	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-22 22:56:11	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.57	21.28	24.925	116.96884854731	0.4517	0.4717	6.03	6.5017	T	T	-3.43	45.57	24	367.24137198347	42.95580041984	0.25214868803984	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-22 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.41	21.37	24.89	116.95894398982	0.4411	0.4511	6.03	6.4811	T	F	-3.59	45.41	24	367.23556909851	42.951484357263	0.24546504099384	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-22 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.41	21.37	24.89	116.98755895124	0.4411	0.4511	6.03	6.4811	T	F	-3.59	45.41	24	367.25233364189	42.96395403191	0.24546504099384	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-22 10:56:13	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	26.59	21.91	24.25	117.24399511226	0.4758	0.4858	6.03	6.5158	T	T	-5.41	43.59	24	367.40251658727	43.07573885899	0.1765128940324	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-22 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.6	22.1	25.35	115.11990641667	0.4826	0.5026	6.03	6.5326	T	T	-3.4	45.6	24	366.15557925178	42.151796017406	0.25341245704764	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-22 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.6	22.1	25.35	115.11990641667	0.4826	0.5026	6.03	6.5326	T	T	-3.4	45.6	24	366.15557925178	42.151796017406	0.25341245704764	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-21 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.18	21.83	25.005	111.994096	0.4666	0.4866	6.08	6.5666	T	T	-3.82	43.18	24	364.30830731791	40.800379543359	0.23602627533388	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-21 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	27.49	21.82	24.655	111.99551733333	0.4906	0.5106	6.08	6.5906	T	T	-4.51	43.49	24	364.309150626	40.800991793626	0.20894425296016	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2021-01-21 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	29.16	23.04	26.1	111.99502533333	0.5335	0.5535	6.08	6.6335	T	T	-2.84	45.16	24	364.308858712	40.800779860609	0.27759894365171	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-21 11:02:05	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	27.28	22.5	24.89	111.99644666667	0.5347	0.5547	6.08	6.6347	T	T	-4.72	43.28	24	364.30970201811	40.80139211222	0.20107946008187	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2021-01-21 07:02:06	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	29.45	22.44	25.945	112.28073033333	0.4764	0.5264	6.12	6.6464	T	T	-2.55	48.45	24	364.47831213801	40.923891077517	0.29055205934115	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-21 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	29.53	22.44	25.985	112.29773166667	0.4212	0.4512	6.26	6.7112	T	T	-2.47	47.53	24	364.48839185938	40.931219624639	0.2941744189538	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-20 23:02:04	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	27.82	20.44	24.13	120.42774891108	0.4043	0.4243	6.37	6.7943	T	T	-4.18	48.82	24	369.25897212429	44.469026778146	0.22166196752704	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-20 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.46	22.06	25.26	119.980976	0.4087	0.4187	6.31	6.7287	T	T	-3.54	50.46	24	368.99936228036	44.272903629776	0.24754341639915	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-20 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.46	22.06	25.26	120.00671269681	0.4203	0.4503	6.34	6.7903	T	T	-3.54	50.46	24	369.01432530292	44.284196117636	0.24754341639915	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-20 10:56:07	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	29.96	21.97	25.965	119.90712133333	0.4489	0.4789	6.39	6.8689	T	T	-2.04	52.96	24	368.95641858661	44.240502050177	0.31399203935194	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-20 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	29.96	21.96	25.96	119.99641428986	0.4489	0.4889	6.4	6.8889	T	T	-2.04	52.96	24	369.00833804374	44.279677408307	0.31399203935194	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-20 02:59:20	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	29.63	21.34	25.485	120.45375410876	0.4877	0.5377	6.49	7.0277	T	T	-2.37	53.63	24	369.27407409754	44.480448520086	0.29873145317317	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-19 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.82	16.27	22.545	115.33458824377	0.8024	0.8524	6.71	7.5624	T	T	-3.18	54.82	24	366.28191314603	42.244973633836	0.26278069932664	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-19 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	26.68	16.25	21.465	114.82162150342	0.8225	0.9425	6.67	7.6125	T	T	-5.32	52.68	24	365.97993302589	42.022409347745	0.1796052886024	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2021-01-19 15:02:02	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	25.91	17.91	21.91	114.88847004585	0.7366	0.8366	6.67	7.5066	T	T	-6.09	53.91	24	366.01930861973	42.051398374561	0.15424385031183	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2021-01-19 10:56:11	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	26.78	15.69	21.235	112.90288714373	0.555	0.655	6.62	7.275	T	T	-5.22	55.78	24	364.84689205959	41.192267478945	0.1830808587465	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2021-01-19 07:00:09	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.11	15.69	21.9	114.4216169659	0.555	0.615	6.61	7.225	T	T	-3.89	56.11	24	365.74417982118	41.849040451006	0.23319375014765	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2021-01-19 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	27.81	15.69	21.75	115.1371241834	0.7025	0.7525	6.51	7.2625	T	T	-4.19	51.81	24	366.16571393847	42.159267277436	0.22127020882121	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2021-01-18 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.3	18.45	23.375	115.33177527381	0.5406	0.5606	6.26	6.8206	T	T	-3.7	61.3	24	366.28025824193	42.243752430792	0.240925762874	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2021-01-18 19:02:01	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.38	18.42	23.4	115.6171604499	0.5406	0.5606	6.09	6.6506	T	T	-3.62	60.38	24	366.44809354009	42.367688027385	0.24422252394842	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2021-01-18 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.82	21.12	24.97	114.77763232775	0.4952	0.5152	6.14	6.6552	T	T	-3.18	61.82	24	365.95401856785	42.003335792044	0.26278069932664	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-18 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.14	23.17	25.655	115.27118518712	0.7763	0.8063	6.06	6.8663	T	T	-3.86	54.14	24	366.24460949386	42.21745020475	0.23440537705932	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2021-01-18 06:56:28	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	28.14	23.17	25.655	115.4451203111	0.7763	0.8063	6.04	6.8463	T	T	-3.86	53.14	24	366.34693113262	42.292965540206	0.23440537705932	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2021-01-18 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	27.88	22.52	25.2	113.45016004395	0.4208	0.4508	6.04	6.4908	T	F	-4.12	54.88	24	365.17062787096	41.42866617531	0.22402081163103	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-17 22:59:20	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	29.9	22.16	26.03	112.40929372074	0.1778	0.2878	5.91	6.1978	T	F	-2.1	63.9	24	364.55452378038	40.979316540854	0.31119258927984	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-17 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	30.1	22.3	26.2	112.58969650723	0.1256	0.2156	6.01	6.2256	T	F	-1.9	65.1	24	364.6614235688	41.057119007505	0.32056561098207	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-17 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	29.07	24.14	26.605	113.00393226978	0.376	0.456	5.99	6.446	T	F	-2.93	60.07	24	364.90669854135	41.235891846754	0.27363709165928	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-17 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	25.83	21.33	23.58	112.54759440405	0.0498	0.2098	6	6.2098	T	F	-6.17	57.83	24	364.63647985519	41.038958639662	0.15175146523079	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-17 07:00:09	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	25.95	22.83	24.39	112.48940236105	0.0197	0.1797	6.02	6.1997	T	F	-6.05	54.95	24	364.60199914177	41.013860983102	0.15550011104351	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-17 02:59:23	FORECAST	2021	116	-168	27.52	27.03	27.275	112.5611183141	0.0261	0.0661	6.07	6.1361	T	F	-4.48	55.52	24	364.64449249012	41.044791861766	0.21008237334285	90	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L