Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 23, 2021

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DAY 115 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/24/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.62°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.66°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.14°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.239 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -4 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 41 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.82 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.83 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 114 in SWE DAY: 23 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 364.84 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 41.73 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -169 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 1.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-01-24 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	115	-169	27.62006	18.66002	23.14004	114.38625416667	0	0.01	6.82	6.83	T	T	-4.37994	40.62006	23	364.83937649731	41.73260965003	0.23933806919552	90	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-01-24 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	115	-169	27.62006	18.66002	23.14004	114.38625416667	0	0.01	6.82	6.83	T	T	-4.37994	40.62006	23	364.83937649731	41.73260965003	0.23933806919552	90	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2021-01-23 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	31.12	20.06	25.59	115.0488380044	0.0134	0.0234	6.82	6.8434	T	T	-0.88	44.12	23	365.23127902006	42.01943425412	0.3784793936248	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-23 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	31.37	21.05	26.21	115.39941483543	0.0172	0.0272	6.82	6.8472	T	T	-0.63	44.37	23	365.43837019036	42.171374078382	0.38936228880099	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	32.02	21.86	26.94	115.38522002856	0.0136	0.0236	6.82	6.8436	T	T	0.020000000000003	45.02	23	365.42998867949	42.165219648816	0.41804639619114	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-22 22:56:08	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	31.24	21.18	26.21	115.01759759764	0.0053	0.0253	6.82	6.8453	T	T	-0.76	49.24	23	365.21281587721	42.005900694067	0.38369175457743	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-22 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	31.16	23.43	27.295	115.00472518719	0.0019	0.0219	6.82	6.8419	T	T	-0.84	49.16	23	365.20520783068	42.000324563499	0.38021444529555	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-22 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	31.16	23.43	27.295	115.00478985705	0.0019	0.0219	6.82	6.8419	T	T	-0.84	49.16	23	365.20524605346	42.00035257707	0.38021444529555	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-22 10:56:13	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	31.13	22.12	26.625	115.01613625442	0.0014	0.0214	6.82	6.8414	T	T	-0.87	49.13	23	365.21195218457	42.005267654202	0.37891292854569	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-22 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	31.09	22.38	26.735	115.11990641667	0.0014	0.0314	6.82	6.8514	T	T	-0.91	49.09	23	365.27327513683	42.050225250261	0.37717970797481	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-22 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	31.09	22.38	26.735	115.11990641667	0.0014	0.0314	6.82	6.8514	T	T	-0.91	49.09	23	365.27327513683	42.050225250261	0.37717970797481	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-21 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	30.44	22.33	26.385	111.994096	0.0021	0.0821	6.82	6.9021	T	T	-1.56	47.44	23	363.41897021539	40.700779038523	0.34938371129973	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-21 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	30.63	22.28	26.455	111.99551733333	0.0021	0.0821	6.82	6.9021	T	T	-1.37	47.63	23	363.41981673415	40.701390384326	0.35743324633683	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-21 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	30.66	23.28	26.97	111.99502533333	0.0042	0.0842	6.82	6.9042	T	T	-1.34	47.66	23	363.41952370877	40.701178764392	0.35871015152184	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-21 11:02:05	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	30.66	23.35	27.005	111.99644666667	0.0036	0.0836	6.82	6.9036	T	T	-1.34	47.66	23	363.42037022553	40.701790111544	0.35871015152184	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-21 07:02:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	30.74	24.15	27.445	112.28073033333	0.0168	0.1468	6.82	6.9668	T	T	-1.26	50.74	23	363.5896222828	40.824108331534	0.36212292326886	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-21 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	30.73	23.98	27.355	112.29773166667	0.0103	0.2703	6.82	7.0903	T	T	-1.27	49.73	23	363.59974037998	40.83142607926	0.36169572062128	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-20 23:02:04	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	30.46	22.83	26.645	119.97266666667	0.0108	0.3008	6.89	7.1908	T	T	-1.54	53.46	23	368.12303554503	44.164702235765	0.3502279244358	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-20 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	31.47	22.85	27.16	119.980976	0.0048	0.2348	6.89	7.1248	T	T	-0.53	54.47	23	368.12788509906	44.168342947001	0.39374039221708	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-20 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	31.02	21.08	26.05	120.00671269681	0.0128	0.2828	6.89	7.1728	T	T	-0.98	54.02	23	368.14290508927	44.179619842419	0.37415253467086	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-20 10:56:07	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	32.03	22.42	27.225	119.90712133333	0.0042	0.3342	6.89	7.2242	T	T	0.030000000000001	55.03	23	368.08477790882	44.135986125666	0.41849153781376	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-20 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	32.16	22.42	27.29	119.99641428986	0.0045	0.3445	6.9	7.2445	T	T	0.16	55.16	23	368.13689503522	44.175107372027	0.42428767641965	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-20 02:59:20	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	31.56	21.38	26.47	119.99995314328	0.0055	0.4055	6.93	7.3355	T	T	-0.44	55.56	23	368.13896029474	44.176657985585	0.39769221692336	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-19 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	31.74	23.83	27.785	110.72863466667	0.003	0.563	7	7.563	T	T	-0.26	57.74	23	362.66407188258	40.157297522211	0.40562704866451	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-19 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	32.37	23.56	27.965	110.75367784665	0.0029	0.6429	6.95	7.5929	T	T	0.37	58.37	23	362.67903468812	40.168036969582	0.43368481994536	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-19 15:02:02	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	32.34	24.17	28.255	110.61946533333	0.0026	0.6226	6.95	7.5726	T	T	0.34	60.34	23	362.59883424252	40.110489174397	0.43233994460484	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-19 10:56:11	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	33.23	23.04	28.135	110.3535605505	0.0051	0.5951	6.92	7.5151	T	T	1.23	61.23	23	362.43985859096	39.996528880932	0.47250392216328	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-19 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	33.24	21.49	27.365	110.9990696026	0.0051	0.5251	6.94	7.4651	T	T	1.24	60.24	23	362.82560107204	40.273304147001	0.47295757661055	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-19 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	28.71	24.61	26.66	110.99662546131	0.0057	0.4257	6.93	7.3557	T	T	-3.29	55.71	23	362.8241416977	40.272255364341	0.27954887847965	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-18 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	35.22	23.89	29.555	112.63071908319	0.0005	0.2705	6.81	7.0805	T	T	3.22	65.22	23	363.79782495627	40.974810625725	0.56271032706371	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-18 19:02:01	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	35.3	24.21	29.755	112.82797977259	0.0009	0.1709	6.74	6.9109	T	T	3.3	64.3	23	363.91509063365	41.059804484954	0.56630039690992	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-18 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	35.84	24.64	30.24	112.89542969619	0.001	0.221	6.74	6.961	T	T	3.84	64.84	23	363.95517415115	41.088875775945	0.59037612259581	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-18 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	30.95	21.45	26.2	112.62040876451	0.0002	0.1502	6.74	6.8902	T	T	-1.05	57.95	23	363.7916941592	40.970369301344	0.37113309855035	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-18 06:56:28	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	30.95	21.45	26.2	112.70697163672	0.0002	0.1302	6.74	6.8702	T	T	-1.05	56.95	23	363.8431618228	41.007660919779	0.37113309855035	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-18 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	30.86	20.6	25.73	112.83392606444	0.0002	0.1302	6.74	6.8702	T	T	-1.14	58.86	23	363.91862461705	41.062367183512	0.36726261152433	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-17 22:59:20	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	32.84	21.93	27.385	112.40929372074	0.0179	0.1679	6.65	6.8179	T	T	0.84	65.84	23	363.66612408035	40.879452158033	0.45484499657657	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-17 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	32.84	21.81	27.325	112.58969650723	0.0179	0.2479	6.65	6.8979	T	T	0.84	66.84	23	363.77343086077	40.957140178007	0.45484499657657	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-17 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	31.31	21.23	26.27	112.62519418752	0.0491	0.2291	6.64	6.8691	T	T	-0.69	63.31	23	363.79453972238	40.972430680592	0.38674211090095	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-17 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	29.65	22.24	25.945	112.40774227757	0.0436	0.3136	6.65	6.9636	T	T	-2.35	63.65	23	363.66520104114	40.878784193954	0.31666947466088	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-17 07:00:09	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	29.65	22.24	25.945	112.48940236105	0.0436	0.3136	6.67	6.9836	T	T	-2.35	60.65	23	363.71378019133	40.913945764201	0.31666947466088	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-17 02:59:23	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	31.41	23.71	27.56	112.5611183141	0.0163	0.1163	6.79	6.9063	T	T	-0.59	60.41	23	363.75643532159	40.94483115375	0.39111188007653	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-16 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	29.64	21.77	25.705	114.12986323456	0.0502	0.4502	6.96	7.4102	T	T	-2.36	73.64	23	364.6875503041	41.621740239553	0.31626375155753	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-16 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	29.69	22.01	25.85	113.95013467838	0.0305	0.2805	6.93	7.2105	T	T	-2.31	74.69	23	364.58106205981	41.544061122903	0.31829456794355	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-16 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	31.06	25.36	28.21	114.26801531791	0.0251	0.1451	6.97	7.1151	T	T	-0.94	79.06	23	364.76937166335	41.681472148732	0.37588141165158	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-16 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	29.44	27.6	28.52	115.67847755893	0.0699	0.4099	6.99	7.3999	T	T	-2.56	73.44	23	365.60308510073	42.292408275299	0.30819621261684	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-16 07:00:09	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	29.44	28.14	28.79	115.27923411696	0.0489	0.3889	7	7.3889	T	T	-2.56	72.44	23	365.36739834806	42.119273852871	0.30819621261684	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-16 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	115	-169	27.02	26.62	26.82	116.41376781246	0.0234	0.6334	6.99	7.6234	T	T	-4.98	68.02	23	366.03652658894	42.611691217204	0.21862474484081	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L