Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, January 22, 2021

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DAY 114 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/23/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.10°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.77°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.94°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.264 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -4 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 43 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.39 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.41 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 115 in SWE DAY: 22 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 364.51 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 42.04 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -170 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-01-23 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	114	-170	28.09994	21.77006	24.935	115.33277458333	0	0.02	7.39	7.41	T	T	-3.90006	43.09994	22	364.51383444055	42.040391900039	0.26405520259427	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-23 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	114	-170	28.09994	21.77006	24.935	115.33277458333	0	0.02	7.39	7.41	T	T	-3.90006	43.09994	22	364.51383444055	42.040391900039	0.26405520259427	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-22 10:56:09	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	33.48	24.28	28.88	115.01242468171	0.009	0.029	7.39	7.419	T	T	1.48	48.48	22	364.323853461	41.901769755934	0.48578204133	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-22 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	33.45	23.23	28.34	115.11990641667	0.0152	0.0352	7.39	7.4252	T	T	1.45	48.45	22	364.38761188792	41.94826777993	0.48445884136103	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-22 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	33.45	23.91	28.68	115.11990641667	0.0171	0.0371	7.39	7.4271	T	T	1.45	48.45	22	364.38761188792	41.94826777993	0.48445884136103	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-21 23:00:04	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	32.9	24.37	28.635	111.994096	0.0214	0.0914	7.39	7.4814	T	T	0.9	46.9	22	362.52624720273	40.600799331742	0.46024536812752	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-21 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	32.72	24.43	28.575	111.99551733333	0.0231	0.0931	7.39	7.4831	T	T	0.72	46.72	22	362.52709694438	40.601409769637	0.45234848923448	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-21 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	32.86	24.4	28.63	111.99502533333	0.0185	0.0885	7.39	7.4785	T	T	0.86	46.86	22	362.52680280338	40.601198463977	0.45848903912395	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2021-01-21 11:02:05	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	32.65	24.24	28.445	111.99644666667	0.0202	0.0902	7.39	7.4802	T	T	0.65	46.65	22	362.52765254303	40.601808903227	0.44928238980005	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-21 07:02:06	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	32.28	24.08	28.18	112.28073033333	0.0341	0.1441	7.39	7.5341	T	T	0.28	50.28	22	362.69754898167	40.723945689772	0.43313039259859	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-21 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	32.44	24.09	28.265	112.29773166667	0.0157	0.2657	7.39	7.6557	T	T	0.44	49.44	22	362.70770560076	40.731252596986	0.44010296443695	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-20 23:02:04	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	32.3	23.65	27.975	119.97266666667	0.0134	0.3734	7.39	7.7634	T	T	0.3	53.3	22	367.24822198703	44.059748520376	0.43400087264215	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-20 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	32.2	23.41	27.805	119.980976	0.0145	0.3145	7.39	7.7045	T	T	0.2	53.2	22	367.25309000443	44.063384177747	0.42965175660523	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-20 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	32.09	23.1	27.595	119.978352	0.0175	0.3475	7.39	7.7375	T	T	0.090000000000003	53.09	22	367.25155274688	44.062236068011	0.42487758910458	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-20 10:56:06	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	32.22	23.28	27.75	119.90728533333	0.0265	0.4065	7.39	7.7965	T	T	0.22	53.22	22	367.20991479152	44.031144030136	0.43052091471285	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-20 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	32.18	23.64	27.91	119.99728895652	0.0378	0.4278	7.39	7.8178	T	T	0.18	53.18	22	367.26264664029	44.070521931832	0.42878293929888	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-20 02:59:20	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	31.91	23.37	27.64	119.99264228986	0.0376	0.5176	7.39	7.9076	T	T	-0.09	53.91	22	367.25992451918	44.068488750229	0.41708933532741	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-19 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	31.33	23.8	27.565	110.72863466667	0.0516	0.7516	7.39	8.1416	T	T	-0.67	56.33	22	361.76847479897	40.058129279933	0.39222889830044	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-19 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	31.32	23.8	27.56	110.75570051331	0.1183	0.7783	7.39	8.1683	T	T	-0.68	56.32	22	361.78470763409	40.069718729019	0.39180379121255	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-19 15:02:02	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	31.91	23.32	27.615	110.621324	0.0986	0.7586	7.39	8.1486	T	T	-0.09	57.91	22	361.70410387088	40.01218686643	0.41708933532741	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-19 10:56:11	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	32.56	22.76	27.66	110.36088588383	0.0891	0.6991	7.39	8.0891	T	T	0.56	57.56	22	361.54780556776	39.900736111813	0.4453447324929	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-19 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	32.85	22.76	27.805	111.0064496026	0.0526	0.6526	7.39	8.0426	T	T	0.85	56.85	22	361.93504221886	40.177124023483	0.45805008210628	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-19 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	33.44	22.25	27.845	110.99662546131	0.0412	0.5412	7.39	7.9312	T	T	1.44	57.44	22	361.92915403656	40.172914754125	0.48401781201224	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-18 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	33.83	22.83	28.33	112.66772841652	0.0175	0.3475	7.31	7.6575	T	T	1.83	59.83	22	362.92863354804	40.890344719171	0.50122711449243	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-18 19:02:01	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	33.89	22.97	28.43	112.86548110593	0.0194	0.1794	7.31	7.4894	T	T	1.89	58.89	22	363.04662810962	40.975432345476	0.50387529883684	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-18 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	33.52	21.62	27.57	112.94501236285	0.0167	0.2267	7.31	7.5367	T	T	1.52	58.52	22	363.09406590502	41.009663762521	0.48754654897914	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-18 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	31.19	21.46	26.325	112.61977681519	0.0293	0.1593	7.31	7.4693	T	T	-0.81	57.19	22	362.90001298178	40.869718468238	0.38628932198744	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-18 06:56:28	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	26.86	21.33	24.095	112.70632846668	0.0305	0.1405	7.31	7.4505	T	T	-5.14	55.86	22	362.95166998132	40.906950134444	0.22121279745969	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-18 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	26.86	21.33	24.095	112.83320255585	0.0305	0.1405	7.31	7.4505	T	T	-5.14	57.86	22	363.02737227539	40.961541029268	0.22121279745969	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-17 22:59:20	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	32.01	23.13	27.57	112.41481505408	0.0883	0.1583	7.22	7.3783	T	T	0.009999999999998	63.01	22	362.77763946208	40.781581245885	0.42141233247566	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-17 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	32.05	22.55	27.3	112.59543650723	0.0723	0.2423	7.22	7.4623	T	T	0.049999999999997	64.05	22	362.88548380363	40.859249451006	0.42314421768618	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-17 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	30.07	18.87	24.47	112.62278926032	0.0304	0.1904	7.21	7.4004	T	T	-1.93	62.07	22	362.90181110329	40.871014194073	0.33983342442839	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-17 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	31.15	23.37	27.26	112.40670265363	0.1228	0.2928	7.21	7.5028	T	T	-0.85	64.15	22	362.77279459904	40.778093653321	0.38459711429351	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-17 07:00:09	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	30.71	23.37	27.04	112.4883340768	0.1228	0.2928	7.23	7.5228	T	T	-1.29	60.71	22	362.82154171691	40.813190794912	0.36613429395853	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-17 02:59:23	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	32.56	24.36	28.46	112.5611183141	0.0222	0.1122	7.36	7.4722	T	T	0.56	58.56	22	362.86499711592	40.844489872411	0.4453447324929	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-16 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	34.44	25.38	29.91	114.05934877285	0.1507	0.4507	7.49	7.9407	T	T	2.44	74.44	22	363.75772436388	41.489969152036	0.52812757965031	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-16 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	34.48	25.38	29.93	113.8965176698	0.1507	0.2607	7.5	7.7607	T	T	2.48	75.48	22	363.66086519689	41.419706158714	0.52988840460757	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-16 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	35.01	26.09	30.55	114.07423345424	0.1043	0.1443	7.53	7.6743	T	T	3.01	78.01	22	363.7665764348	41.496393363074	0.55315101453917	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-16 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	34.24	25.76	30	115.25599339688	0.123	0.353	7.56	7.913	T	T	2.24	74.24	22	364.46831404851	42.007157597345	0.51931589288098	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-16 07:00:09	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	34.26	25.76	30.01	114.98636455294	0.123	0.353	7.57	7.923	T	T	2.26	73.26	22	364.30839190716	41.890497561531	0.52019755779833	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-16 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	33.18	25.91	29.545	116.1942244992	0.2479	0.6179	7.56	8.1779	T	T	1.18	71.18	22	365.02394440704	42.413674144014	0.4725594865867	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-15 22:59:19	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	25.45	17.01	21.23	117.99124547963	0.1486	0.3886	7.18	7.5686	T	T	-6.55	66.45	22	366.08446943856	43.194762499805	0.17769998939272	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-15 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	25.11	17.01	21.06	117.89011567085	0.0861	0.4061	7.18	7.5861	T	T	-6.89	65.11	22	366.02491540097	43.150719615035	0.16807376146202	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-15 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	27.73	18.66	23.195	116.46728000618	0.0433	0.1533	7.2	7.3533	T	T	-4.27	70.73	22	365.1854021573	42.532150487225	0.25084652750058	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-15 10:59:22	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	24.89	20.12	22.505	116.80050075952	0.0034	0.2734	7.22	7.4934	T	T	-7.11	62.89	22	365.38228397442	42.676833736869	0.16202688793133	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-15 06:56:39	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	24.89	21.2	23.045	116.73534263979	0.0027	0.2727	7.3	7.5727	T	T	-7.11	56.89	22	365.34379873019	42.648533526092	0.16202688793133	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-15 03:00:10	FORECAST	2021	114	-170	20.29	19.17	19.73	116.17179665103	0.0003	0.1303	7.53	7.6603	T	T	-11.71	47.29	22	365.01067784077	42.403946241572	0.06733912308513	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L