MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 2, 2021

[ Friday, January 1, 2021 | Index | Today | Sunday, January 3, 2021 ]

DAY 94 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/03/2021 07:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.58°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.54°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.430
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 23

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.55 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.10 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.81 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.91 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 106 in
SWE DAY: 2
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 340.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 36.10 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -190

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-01-03 07:00:08OBSERVATION202194-19030.5000628.5829.54003106.146441251.554.19.8113.91TT-1.4999422.500062340.14030626781 36.1046830360130.4295409852568888 21151210WETL
2021-01-03 03:00:07OBSERVATION202194-19030.5000628.5829.54003106.146441251.554.19.8113.91TT-1.4999422.500062340.14030626781 36.1046830360130.4295409852568888 21151210WETL
2021-01-02 11:00:02FORECAST202194-19030.4325.9328.18110.214607023862.04264.59269.8114.4026TT-1.5722.432342.7900598285237.7804717356860.42590587772888821151210WETL
2021-01-02 07:00:07FORECAST202194-19030.1225.627.86111.197080993942.28424.83429.8114.6442TT-1.8822.122343.4258888923138.1879563825740.409900854191578821151210WETL
2021-01-02 03:00:07FORECAST202194-19029.9625.5927.775112.441235618272.53325.08329.8114.8932TT-2.0421.962344.2287966295338.7055112284140.401696786983458821151210WETL
2021-01-01 23:00:02FORECAST202194-19029.6925.5427.615113.462724633792.73684.84689.8114.6568TT-2.3126.692344.8861142918639.1317182159140.387951901193968821151210WETL
2021-01-01 19:00:03FORECAST202194-19033.4125.6129.51111.728194181052.52314.63319.8114.4431TT1.4130.412343.7689500135638.408684000530.582093326816438831151212.5WETL
2021-01-01 15:00:02FORECAST202194-19032.3127.8530.08111.257245002752.59154.70159.8114.5115TT0.3129.312343.4647737850738.212944486820.524636408674098831151212.5WETL
2021-01-01 11:01:30FORECAST202194-19033.4427.930.67113.681978774582.66014.77019.8114.5801TT1.4430.442345.0269798927939.2233498048290.583641679940228831151212.5WETL
2021-01-01 07:00:07FORECAST202194-19033.3528.9631.155112.791101548492.70794.86799.8114.6779TT1.3530.352344.4541238104438.85136005750.578992823919478831151212.5WETL
2021-01-01 02:57:22FORECAST202194-19036.0328.6432.335113.183476161072.67985.06989.8114.8798TT4.0328.032344.7065901293939.0150901264740.7101131927518841151215WETL
2020-12-31 23:00:03FORECAST202194-19031.6627.9229.79105.754990831052.62614.01619.8113.8261TT-0.3433.662339.8838924589935.9444179306210.490362972603968821151210WETL
2020-12-31 19:00:06FORECAST202194-19033.1227.7430.43106.151264959072.55064.03069.8113.8406TT1.1235.122340.143464377236.1066590111990.567063759700448831151212.5WETL
2020-12-31 15:00:06FORECAST202194-19032.9827.7930.385105.824688611022.70234.10239.8113.9123TT0.9834.982339.9295656167935.9729404310750.559771828065678831151212.5WETL
2020-12-31 11:00:05FORECAST202194-19031.9327.4429.685108.141984192082.73144.13149.8113.9414TT-0.0733.932341.4435019029536.9243777852770.504605493445228831151212.5WETL
2020-12-31 07:00:07FORECAST202194-19031.9728.7430.355100.39409516682.43744.27749.8114.0874TT-0.03000000000000136.972336.3465421624733.7672067628820.506715435698258831151212.5WETL
2020-12-31 03:00:07FORECAST202194-19031.4928.7730.13101.833634945372.45114.76119.8114.5711TT-0.5136.492337.3011480548334.348601977670.481400610396218821151210WETL
2020-12-30 23:00:04FORECAST202194-19036.0927.9632.02590.8171436364692.71415.36418.8614.2241TT4.0941.092329.9061192637429.9611314197250.712822809099738841151215WETL
2020-12-30 19:00:05FORECAST202194-19038.2127.6432.92590.4876649518842.77855.80858.8614.6685TT6.2142.212329.6817477821929.8321315340670.80011978349828841151215WETL
2020-12-30 15:00:06FORECAST202194-19034.2627.9331.09590.5342285516162.89065.35068.8614.2106TT2.2640.262329.7134684929629.8503545130880.625383737148218831151212.5WETL
2020-12-30 11:00:06FORECAST202194-19036.8828.1732.52591.6272084598392.44484.70488.8613.5648TT4.8840.882330.4569671026730.2788494117220.747335556661548841151215WETL
2020-12-30 07:00:07FORECAST202194-19036.8830.6733.77587.4713760823282.41654.60659.0913.6965TT4.8842.882327.6189356136328.6572791287520.747335556661548841151215WETL
2020-12-30 03:01:29FORECAST202194-19037.2428.5832.9189.0235537241382.26444.34449.4313.7744TT5.2444.242328.6824293393529.2604779064720.762306731047038841151215WETL
2020-12-29 22:57:19FORECAST202194-19035.3130.4432.875114.45800328012.42154.54159.6114.1515TT3.3150.312345.5249275560839.548093291570.67670367446078831151212.5WETL
2020-12-29 19:00:05FORECAST202194-19035.3130.5632.935113.282930154072.40524.52529.514.0252TT3.3149.312344.7705420343639.0566172324590.67670367446078831151212.5WETL
2020-12-29 15:00:06FORECAST202194-19034.9530.6932.82113.399091019062.38044.80049.5914.3904TT2.9547.952344.8452165089839.105134094390.659425185060018831151212.5WETL
2020-12-29 11:00:05FORECAST202194-19033.9529.831.875116.7782809272.51494.98499.614.5849TT1.9540.952347.0079270386540.5229891876150.609746543746088831151212.5WETL
2020-12-29 07:00:07FORECAST202194-19033.9529.831.875116.287631355322.51494.94499.8514.7949TT1.9536.952346.6950578987140.3163470856380.609746543746088831151212.5WETL
2020-12-29 02:57:37FORECAST202194-19034.0128.4831.245116.923073756642.58974.55979.8114.3697TT2.0147.012347.1001816010740.5840201342860.612787866497538831151212.5WETL
2020-12-28 22:57:31FORECAST202194-19037.5928.2932.9493.8092218265212.64414.87419.9514.8241TT5.5954.592331.935120376631.1385753394220.776383438717248841151215WETL
2020-12-28 19:00:06FORECAST202194-19037.5928.2932.9493.6249109022812.68875.17879.8715.0487TT5.5951.592331.8105798358131.0657359735620.776383438717248841151215WETL
2020-12-28 15:00:06FORECAST202194-19036.9928.1532.5795.5472663995962.47964.87969.7414.6196TT4.9951.992333.10666988531.8274317269840.751962054346678841151215WETL
2020-12-28 10:59:33FORECAST202194-19031.4729.0830.275100.31002250282.26693.88699.8313.7169TT-0.5345.472336.2906828786733.7333259670430.4803467449148821151210WETL
2020-12-28 07:00:07FORECAST202194-19031.4729.0830.27598.8015909091182.26693.73699.6413.3769TT-0.5347.472335.28642605633.1268323045650.4803467449148821151210WETL
2020-12-28 03:00:07FORECAST202194-19037.6629.8233.7494.1601644920552.0033.7739.5713.343TT5.6653.662332.1720943387231.2773790426040.779140885994368841151215WETL
2020-12-27 23:00:05FORECAST202194-19038.4130.2134.3195.4043913899493.07984.89989.0713.9698TT6.4155.412333.0105582785131.7706696389880.80744170199188841151215WETL
2020-12-27 19:00:06FORECAST202194-19038.2631.4134.83591.5996248149542.33354.07358.7312.8035TT6.2651.262330.4382287299830.2680177761840.801965752052848841151215WETL
2020-12-27 15:00:06FORECAST202194-19039.3130.3934.8592.9717201779042.75274.44278.8813.3227TT7.3158.312331.3687432722530.8079220752110.838322664822528841151215WETL
2020-12-27 11:00:05FORECAST202194-19034.5132.1233.31588.5893699385131.86653.49658.7312.2265TT2.5153.512328.3853652081929.0914526008220.637847265913048831151212.5WETL
2020-12-27 07:00:07FORECAST202194-19034.5132.1233.31587.9263510784991.86653.49658.5112.0065TT2.5150.512327.9311018641628.8337851920670.637847265913048831151212.5WETL
2020-12-27 03:00:08FORECAST202194-19038.3833.7236.0585.0243770784751.82693.37698.2411.6169TT6.3852.382325.9338053427.712318767850.806353964123578841151215WETL
2020-12-26 23:00:06FORECAST202194-19036.6229.0232.8287.9738322550712.63765.15767.812.9576TT4.6258.622327.9636587408528.8522198998270.736222377264018841151215WETL
2020-12-26 19:00:06FORECAST202194-19036.6231.434.0186.0459922284222.00224.52227.8512.3722TT4.6259.622326.6386162399728.1059438344870.736222377264018841151215WETL
2020-12-26 14:59:35FORECAST202194-19039.0431.1735.10587.6027421509071.53364.37368.0412.4136TT7.0458.042327.7091052018928.7082162435050.82941605072598841151215WETL
2020-12-26 11:00:06FORECAST202194-19038.3632.3635.3684.4218773738090.43262.24268.6910.9326TT6.3657.362325.5172834473227.4807801862450.805626732764978841151215WETL
2020-12-26 06:57:34FORECAST202194-19038.3634.3436.3584.0401751289950.36212.17218.8611.0321TT6.3663.362325.2530738896427.3343252909290.805626732764978841151215WETL
2020-12-26 03:00:07FORECAST202194-19032.2731.2531.7686.9571311761660.14342.01348.9810.9934TT0.2754.272327.2656686704728.4580836800340.52252994203928831151212.5WETL