Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 18, 2021

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DAY 110 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/19/2021 07:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.24°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.62°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.93°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.490 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 42 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.08 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.19 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 12.89 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.08 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 111 in SWE DAY: 18 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.52 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 39.91 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -174 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-01-19 07:00:08	OBSERVATION	2021	110	-174	33.24002	22.62002	27.93002	111.33179833333	0.080000000000041	0.19000000000004	12.89	13.08	T	T	1.24002	42.24002	18	358.5188804647	39.914551698588	0.49012510239253	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-19 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	110	-174	33.24002	22.62002	27.93002	111.33179833333	0.080000000000041	0.19000000000004	12.89	13.08	T	T	1.24002	42.24002	18	358.5188804647	39.914551698588	0.49012510239253	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-18 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.1	28.78	32.94	112.886184	0.007	0.117	12.89	13.007	T	T	5.1	46.1	18	359.46212728032	40.578307841198	0.66151620260075	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-18 06:56:28	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	36.96	23.71	30.335	113.13223383333	0.0084	0.1184	12.89	13.0084	T	T	4.96	45.96	18	359.61109642616	40.683606649946	0.65564134606019	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-18 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.18	25.63	31.405	113.1242525	0.0084	0.1184	12.89	13.0084	T	T	5.18	46.18	18	359.60626564475	40.680189995378	0.66485582136932	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-17 22:59:16	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.49	27.08	32.285	112.887168	0.0059	0.0259	12.89	12.9159	T	T	5.49	50.49	18	359.46272322166	40.578728826061	0.67767227685886	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2021-01-17 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.59	27.17	32.38	112.88766	0.0069	0.0269	12.89	12.9169	T	T	5.59	50.59	18	359.46302119177	40.578939318869	0.68176292397446	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2021-01-17 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.62	28.79	33.205	112.88869866667	0.0024	0.0224	12.89	12.9124	T	T	5.62	50.62	18	359.46365023855	40.5793836934	0.68298584097454	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2021-01-17 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.37	28.93	33.15	112.85973256717	0.0031	0.0231	12.89	12.9131	T	T	5.37	50.37	18	359.44610690278	40.566991497358	0.67273500844898	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2021-01-17 07:00:09	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.36	28.93	33.145	113.05691221377	0.0011	0.0311	12.89	12.9211	T	T	5.36	48.36	18	359.56550336734	40.651365549304	0.67232218754817	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2021-01-17 02:59:23	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	32.89	28.97	30.93	113.1505343141	0.0002	0.1602	12.89	13.0502	T	T	0.89	44.89	18	359.62217260454	40.691440981401	0.47417570281777	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-16 23:00:04	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.83	28.85	33.34	114.74650877285	0	0.27	12.89	13.16	T	T	5.83	55.83	18	360.58614215614	41.376000924286	0.6914898155002	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-16 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.85	27.95	32.9	114.81322300314	0.0002	0.3002	12.89	13.1902	T	T	5.85	53.85	18	360.626352566	41.404673837968	0.69229448590276	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-16 15:00:04	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.89	29.81	33.85	114.74320467467	0	0.33	12.89	13.22	T	T	5.89	54.89	18	360.58415051274	41.374580984726	0.6939010541856	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-16 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	38.3	30.03	34.165	114.37177628033	0	0.37	12.89	13.26	T	T	6.3	55.3	18	360.36015442114	41.215030961801	0.71014971680573	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-16 07:00:09	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.72	29.89	33.805	114.13575281581	0	0.38	12.89	13.27	T	T	5.72	50.72	18	360.21770668434	41.113719130002	0.68704776847376	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-16 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	38.57	29.95	34.26	114.06849784955	0.0006	0.3706	12.89	13.2606	T	T	6.57	51.57	18	360.17710051698	41.084860815778	0.72062438596101	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-15 22:59:19	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.55	28.94	33.245	116.43929769369	0.0002	0.3602	12.52	12.8802	T	T	5.55	55.55	18	361.60432621681	42.104953787686	0.68012928557551	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-15 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	38.23	28.49	33.36	116.46015539331	0.0013	0.3613	12.52	12.8813	T	T	6.23	54.23	18	361.61684448904	42.113953902033	0.70740432515652	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-15 15:00:04	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.96	28.75	33.355	116.35006722679	0.0012	0.3812	12.52	12.9012	T	T	5.96	59.96	18	361.55076482314	42.066455793068	0.69670358853658	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-15 10:59:22	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	38.04	26.9	32.47	116.13401736288	0.0012	0.3812	12.52	12.9012	T	T	6.04	56.04	18	361.42102864991	41.97327601654	0.69989237476728	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-15 06:56:39	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	38.18	28.57	33.375	115.88045110098	0.0013	0.3913	12.59	12.9813	T	T	6.18	56.18	18	361.26867334682	41.863976836083	0.70543597175982	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-15 03:00:10	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	38.06	28.44	33.25	115.965286568	0.001	0.421	12.79	13.211	T	T	6.06	54.06	18	361.31965766545	41.900537643826	0.70068719806223	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-14 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.06	26.31	31.685	117.53625107618	0.0029	0.4129	13.06	13.4729	T	T	5.06	61.06	18	362.26179141656	42.578892871242	0.65984160003915	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-14 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	36.53	27.49	32.01	117.48291073628	0.0006	0.3306	13.04	13.3706	T	T	4.53	56.53	18	362.22986393754	42.555818770988	0.63736652307324	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-14 14:56:38	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	36.54	27.42	31.98	117.97693101034	0.0007	0.4307	12.95	13.3807	T	T	4.54	60.54	18	362.52540007371	42.769634113993	0.63779528513199	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-14 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	33.49	27.77	30.63	117.52772796012	0.0034	0.4634	12.95	13.4134	T	T	1.49	57.49	18	362.25669009697	42.575205725449	0.50152713487763	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-14 07:00:11	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	32.94	26.05	29.495	116.56156386724	0.0034	0.4034	12.9	13.3034	T	T	0.94	56.94	18	361.67769788158	42.15771808098	0.47645212319268	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-14 03:00:09	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	35.41	26.87	31.14	117.20433012423	0.0016	0.4416	12.88	13.3216	T	T	3.41	54.41	18	362.06304597265	42.435356765964	0.58837411243351	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-13 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	36.46	28.1	32.28	122.83495277557	0.0012	0.4312	12.77	13.2012	T	T	4.46	46.46	18	365.41192998134	44.885357162886	0.63436039326372	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-13 19:01:52	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	36.43	29.11	32.77	123.07402097437	0.0013	0.3613	12.7	13.0613	T	T	4.43	43.43	18	365.55306160762	44.990085171539	0.63306951008973	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-13 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.4	27.91	32.655	123.1008242795	0.0013	0.3113	12.75	13.0613	T	T	5.4	45.4	18	365.56887934052	45.001830377751	0.67397220328583	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-13 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	36.83	29.84	33.335	123.63250566876	0.0032	0.2632	12.75	13.0132	T	T	4.83	40.83	18	365.88242395429	45.23496085363	0.65015227303762	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-13 07:00:09	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	36.83	29.84	33.335	123.39469461282	0.0032	0.2732	12.77	13.0432	T	T	4.83	46.83	18	365.7422337026	45.130651234745	0.65015227303762	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-13 02:56:35	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.04	30.56	33.8	123.91304457996	0.0032	0.2732	12.92	13.1932	T	T	5.04	49.04	18	366.04769355804	45.358084170251	0.65900311310614	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-12 22:59:22	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	40.08	29.99	35.035	125.07186316758	0.0037	0.1737	12.72	12.8937	T	T	8.08	54.08	18	366.72912410122	45.867494829156	0.77559029383139	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-12 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	40.05	29.99	35.02	124.78052088051	0.0037	0.2037	12.79	12.9937	T	T	8.05	56.05	18	366.55799216612	45.739297195404	0.77456143347382	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-12 14:56:50	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	40.22	31.67	35.945	124.34180117243	0.0037	0.2037	12.79	12.9937	T	T	8.22	57.22	18	366.3000529585	45.546408354414	0.78035631649284	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-12 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	40.73	32.01	36.37	125.77817912588	0.007	0.477	12.75	13.227	T	T	8.73	53.73	18	367.14348268562	46.17863873013	0.79721973515002	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-12 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	40.76	31.59	36.175	126.32480383913	0.007	0.467	13.63	14.097	T	T	8.76	55.76	18	367.46364889689	46.419773364911	0.79818705229498	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-12 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	41.61	31.7	36.655	125.94504591453	0.007	0.457	14.27	14.727	T	T	9.61	55.61	18	367.24126618327	46.252218131163	0.82443533829656	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-11 23:00:07	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	44.46	34.07	39.265	125.95798624249	0.0009	0.1109	15.07	15.1809	T	T	12.46	51.46	18	367.24884744982	46.257925274654	0.89591598338072	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-01-11 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	44.47	34.08	39.275	126.71459564619	0.0009	0.1109	15.28	15.3909	T	T	12.47	57.47	18	367.69168438492	46.591903109301	0.89612276874076	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-01-11 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	45.56	32.33	38.945	127.33025083682	0.0007	0.1407	15.09	15.2307	T	T	13.56	57.56	18	368.05139457952	46.864076392652	0.91691765777383	91	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-01-11 10:56:49	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	38.22	34.49	36.355	127.29412731301	0.0016	0.0416	15.32	15.3616	T	T	6.22	55.22	18	368.03030414039	46.848096390294	0.70701114318322	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-11 07:00:09	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	37.36	34.49	35.925	128.34477473533	0.0006	0.0406	15.11	15.1506	T	T	5.36	56.36	18	368.64292682944	47.313393401696	0.67232218754817	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2021-01-11 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	110	-174	39.66	37.48	38.57	126.39718406461	0.0006	0.0506	15.15	15.2006	T	T	7.66	57.66	18	367.50600975187	46.451724759458	0.76094614641661	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L