Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 17, 2021

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DAY 109 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/18/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.97°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.20°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.59°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.376 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 39 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.11 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.50 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 13.62 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 14.12 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 113 in SWE DAY: 17 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.76 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 40.62 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -175 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-01-18 06:56:28	OBSERVATION	2021	109	-175	30.97004	26.20004	28.58504	113.22483916667	0.11000000000001	0.50000000000001	13.62	14.12	T	T	-1.02996	38.97004	17	358.76013247434	40.62055829882	0.37562667530927	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-18 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	109	-175	30.97004	26.20004	28.58504	113.22483916667	0.11000000000001	0.50000000000001	13.62	14.12	T	T	-1.02996	38.97004	17	358.76013247434	40.62055829882	0.37562667530927	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-17 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	34.95	27.45	31.2	112.96195923384	0.0198	0.4098	13.62	14.0298	T	T	2.95	42.95	17	358.60040186934	40.508203977203	0.55459511248532	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-17 07:00:09	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	33.23	27.17	30.2	113.15799088044	0.0267	0.4167	13.62	14.0367	T	T	1.23	41.23	17	358.71952435753	40.591980665886	0.47646076630794	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-17 02:59:23	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	33.53	28.06	30.795	113.16343564744	0.155	0.545	13.62	14.165	T	T	1.53	41.53	17	358.72283213083	40.594308129103	0.49010849173918	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-16 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	39.28	27.7	33.49	114.86836077285	0.2507	0.6607	13.62	14.2807	T	T	7.28	48.28	17	359.75635175606	41.324622403838	0.73614867736736	90	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-01-16 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	37.24	27.43	32.335	114.9464456698	0.2783	0.6883	13.62	14.3083	T	T	5.24	46.24	17	359.80357944491	41.358142596466	0.65492753039258	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-16 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.03	27.61	32.82	114.929946008	0.3113	0.7213	13.62	14.3413	T	T	6.03	47.03	17	359.79360081936	41.351059116195	0.68751931424995	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-16 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.14	27.45	32.795	114.58038428033	0.347	0.757	13.62	14.377	T	T	6.14	47.14	17	359.58209541079	41.201054672496	0.69195056223426	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-16 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	37.03	27.65	32.34	114.26241548248	0.3513	0.7713	13.62	14.3913	T	T	5.03	43.03	17	359.38954241405	41.064717215372	0.64605404683716	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-16 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	37.44	27.65	32.545	114.24769518288	0.3371	0.7571	13.62	14.3771	T	T	5.44	43.44	17	359.38062444604	41.058408036345	0.66330012206132	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-15 22:59:19	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.77	27.03	32.9	116.56136836036	0.3376	0.3776	13.62	13.9976	T	T	6.77	47.77	17	360.77822769445	42.05280389469	0.71677903027946	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-15 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.1	26.92	32.51	116.62510000511	0.3514	0.3814	13.62	14.0014	T	T	6.1	46.1	17	360.81660947558	42.080273163593	0.69034238659128	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-15 15:00:04	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	42.12	27.07	34.595	116.47453257921	0.3675	0.3975	13.62	14.0175	T	T	10.12	52.12	17	360.72592166429	42.015383115054	0.830408985004	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-15 10:59:22	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	37.66	27.09	32.375	116.32957804929	0.3671	0.3971	13.62	14.0171	T	T	5.66	47.66	17	360.63858176581	41.95293404511	0.67241729980985	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-15 06:56:39	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.39	27.09	32.74	116.06692083514	0.3899	0.4799	13.62	14.0999	T	T	6.39	48.39	17	360.48024015816	41.83983149707	0.70191744204379	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-15 03:00:09	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	37.99	27.38	32.685	116.13953364649	0.4218	0.7118	13.62	14.3318	T	T	5.99	45.99	17	360.5240249995	41.871092131797	0.6859011651607	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-14 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.76	27.07	32.915	117.61982815816	0.4055	0.9455	13.64	14.5855	T	T	6.76	53.76	17	361.41487052016	42.509554964386	0.71639252534415	90	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-01-14 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.82	26.92	32.87	117.55581128036	0.3328	0.8528	13.64	14.4928	T	T	6.82	49.82	17	361.37641423302	42.481897552749	0.7187077596979	90	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-01-14 14:56:38	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	41.18	26.08	33.63	118.04875523814	0.427	0.857	13.64	14.497	T	T	9.18	54.18	17	361.67237480764	42.694973650065	0.80190250615953	90	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-01-14 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	41.42	24.72	33.07	117.53561766695	0.46	0.89	13.64	14.53	T	T	9.42	54.42	17	361.36428220662	42.473174111929	0.80944196015181	90	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-01-14 07:00:11	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	40.7	26.21	33.455	116.55436358699	0.4045	0.7845	13.64	14.4245	T	T	8.7	53.7	17	360.77400875686	42.049784989384	0.78629445742718	90	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-01-14 03:00:09	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	39.8	25.66	32.73	117.246612371	0.4431	0.8031	13.64	14.4431	T	T	7.8	48.8	17	361.19058386994	42.348372379052	0.75517909560521	90	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-01-13 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.71	25.85	32.28	122.95073677557	0.4188	0.8488	13.47	14.3188	T	T	6.71	39.71	17	364.59541757536	44.827275215885	0.71445622396782	90	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-01-13 19:01:52	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.46	25.66	32.06	123.19140202225	0.3532	0.7032	13.48	14.1832	T	T	6.46	37.46	17	364.73799068858	44.932584443703	0.70468163760812	90	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-01-13 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.03	25.63	31.83	123.23579344198	0.2967	0.6867	13.49	14.1767	T	T	6.03	38.03	17	364.76427920373	44.952015366964	0.68751931424995	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-13 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	37.36	27.31	32.335	123.7657541138	0.2594	0.6394	13.49	14.1294	T	T	5.36	34.36	17	365.07789209778	45.184140625759	0.65996049936965	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-13 07:00:09	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	37.14	28.58	32.86	123.52771094066	0.2574	0.6374	13.52	14.1574	T	T	5.14	40.14	17	364.9370783801	45.079841929665	0.65071231763403	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-13 02:56:35	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.05	28.58	33.315	124.05468503775	0.2574	0.6174	13.69	14.3074	T	T	6.05	42.05	17	365.24869396284	45.31081169001	0.68832703871977	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-12 22:59:21	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	37.05	28.17	32.61	125.40395623492	0.165	0.545	13.46	14.005	T	T	5.05	44.05	17	366.04465989071	45.903448508959	0.6469026566291	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-12 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.23	28.16	33.195	125.11212306736	0.1977	0.6077	13.5	14.1077	T	T	6.23	46.23	17	365.87273195832	45.775114267759	0.69555548636621	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-12 14:56:50	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	39.15	29.2	34.175	124.72331439696	0.1943	0.6043	13.51	14.1143	T	T	7.15	47.15	17	365.64347467018	45.604266048487	0.73127606101775	90	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-01-12 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	36.17	29.44	32.805	126.07933779254	0.4432	0.8532	13.49	14.3432	T	T	4.17	43.17	17	366.44205961446	46.200772215527	0.60892900530553	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-12 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.63	29.39	34.01	126.6233385058	0.4432	1.0832	14.13	15.2132	T	T	6.63	44.63	17	366.76165850188	46.44058563543	0.71134513209908	90	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-01-12 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.91	28.91	33.91	126.4136485812	0.4293	1.0693	14.77	15.8393	T	T	6.91	43.91	17	366.6385185631	46.348112841967	0.7221634276661	90	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2021-01-11 23:00:07	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.13	29.63	33.88	126.69451024249	0.0991	0.7891	15.51	16.2991	T	T	6.13	37.13	17	366.80343903894	46.471982064298	0.69154886178585	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-11 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.09	29.64	33.865	127.32166897952	0.0991	0.5191	15.99	16.5091	T	T	6.09	43.09	17	367.17127891713	46.748860033075	0.68993977155265	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-11 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	34.8	28.98	31.89	127.68203083682	0.118	0.518	15.83	16.348	T	T	2.8	41.8	17	367.38237270268	46.908127440328	0.54782134837117	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-11 10:56:49	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	40.4	34.2	37.3	127.54209531301	0.035	0.505	15.97	16.475	T	T	8.4	47.4	17	367.30042382324	46.846265663774	0.77618669246926	90	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-01-11 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	40.4	34.2	37.3	128.51675606866	0.035	0.525	15.74	16.265	T	T	8.4	49.4	17	367.8705989056	47.277536024383	0.77618669246926	90	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-01-11 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	41.91	32.92	37.415	126.53778673128	0.0493	0.5393	15.78	16.3193	T	T	9.91	47.91	17	366.71142633431	46.402852257414	0.82427978091195	90	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-01-10 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.23	29.83	34.03	134.57905245618	0.0597	0.5097	15.51	16.0197	T	T	6.23	45.23	17	371.38551398945	49.980710568651	0.69555548636621	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-10 19:00:07	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.34	29.88	34.11	133.34886126189	0.0594	0.4194	14.93	15.3494	T	T	6.34	43.34	17	370.67662047133	49.429305236259	0.69993583524424	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-10 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	38.84	32.18	35.51	136.53985554101	0.0484	0.4384	14.55	14.9884	T	T	6.84	41.84	17	372.51085109587	50.86257779609	0.71947747409963	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-10 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	34.17	31.29	32.73	132.29551855943	0.0024	0.5624	14.32	14.8824	T	T	2.17	44.17	17	370.06787249958	48.958321094517	0.51924216986142	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-10 07:01:49	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	34.17	31.6	32.885	131.50566800354	0.0013	0.5613	14.3	14.8613	T	T	2.17	39.17	17	369.61033222503	48.605853640261	0.51924216986142	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-10 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	109	-175	37.29	34.93	36.11	134.45714549113	0	0.44	14.65	15.09	T	T	5.29	38.29	17	371.31536434775	49.926003967199	0.65702799330218	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L