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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, July 28, 2021

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DAY 301 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/29/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 70.80°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 52.11°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 61.46°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.711 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 39 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 568 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.03 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.03 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 208 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 443.61 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 16 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 4 D₁: 2 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 1 HS_dry: 50.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-07-29 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	301	16	70.80008	52.10996	61.45502	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	38.80008	567.80008	208	443.60911382386	0.71053136903652	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-29 00:00:02	FORECAST	2021	301	16	56.66	56.66	56.66	0.0001	0.0001	0.03	0.0301	F	F	24.66	553.66	209	444.19430662083	0.15655980249727	95	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2021-07-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	301	16	69.12	58.62	63.87	0.0003	0.0003	0.03	0.0303	F	F	37.12	566.12	209	444.19430662083	0.64399735443141	95	3	2	4	1	5	1	45	DRY	M
2021-07-28 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	301	16	72.56	56.09	64.325	0.0023	0.0023	0.03	0.0323	F	F	40.56	569.56	209	444.19430662083	0.77324085435083	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	301	16	72.08	52.58	62.33	0.0006	0.0006	0.03	0.0306	F	F	40.08	569.08	209	444.19430662083	0.75693488391233	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-28 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	72.78	51.31	62.045	0.0006	0.0006	0.03	0.0306	F	F	40.78	556.78	208	443.60911382386	0.78050340636506	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-27 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	301	16	72.36	52.01	62.185	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	40.36	573.36	208	443.60911382386	0.76652269930144	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	301	16	72.78	53.07	62.925	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	40.78	573.78	208	443.60911382386	0.78050340636506	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	301	16	72.91	54.66	63.785	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	40.91	573.91	208	443.60911382386	0.7847314598579	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	301	16	72.85	54.71	63.78	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	40.85	573.85	208	443.60911382386	0.78278594044141	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-27 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	301	16	72.04	54.78	63.41	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	40.04	573.04	208	443.60911382386	0.75554804938315	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-27 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	73.27	55.3	64.285	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	41.27	558.27	208	443.60911382386	0.79619073938555	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-26 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	73.74	55.6	64.67	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	41.74	577.74	208	443.60911382386	0.81059244628592	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	301	16	73.86	55.41	64.635	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	41.86	578.86	208	443.60911382386	0.81416683103212	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	301	16	72.71	55.23	63.97	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	40.71	577.71	208	443.60911382386	0.77820718059153	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-26 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	74.93	55.71	65.32	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	42.93	583.93	208	443.60911382386	0.84416899494509	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-26 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	301	16	74.51	55.5	65.005	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	42.51	582.51	208	443.60911382386	0.83279474740777	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-26 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	74.56	55.76	65.16	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	42.56	567.56	208	443.60911382386	0.83417614517381	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-25 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	301	16	75.69	55.76	65.725	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	43.69	585.69	208	443.60911382386	0.86342761853595	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-25 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	75.63	55.6	65.615	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	43.63	586.63	208	443.60911382386	0.86196898290988	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-25 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	76.69	55.88	66.285	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	44.69	584.69	208	443.60911382386	0.88619783071173	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-25 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	301	16	77.04	55.29	66.165	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	45.04	587.04	208	443.60911382386	0.89349107820284	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-25 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	301	16	77.12	55.26	66.19	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	45.12	585.12	208	443.60911382386	0.89510979925648	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-25 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	77.33	53.96	65.645	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	45.33	576.33	208	443.60911382386	0.89927430024285	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-24 20:00:04	FORECAST	2021	301	16	77.5	53.95	65.725	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	45.5	591.5	208	443.60911382386	0.90255649677422	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-24 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	78.06	55.99	67.025	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	46.06	595.06	208	443.60911382386	0.91281483247756	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-24 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	301	16	78.97	55.61	67.29	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	46.97	589.97	208	443.60911382386	0.92773712497459	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-24 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	77.84	55.27	66.555	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	45.84	591.84	208	443.60911382386	0.90888502371722	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-24 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	301	16	78.86	55.38	67.12	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	46.86	592.86	208	443.60911382386	0.92604452003267	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-24 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	301	16	76.35	54.98	65.665	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	44.35	587.35	208	443.60911382386	0.87877982402886	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-23 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	76.33	53.76	65.045	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	44.33	597.33	208	443.60911382386	0.87833315088652	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-23 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	301	16	76.68	56.18	66.43	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	44.68	596.68	208	443.60911382386	0.8859843632878	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-23 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	71.54	51.85	61.695	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	39.54	580.54	208	443.60911382386	0.73785917273634	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-23 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	76.44	55.06	65.75	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	44.44	589.44	208	443.60911382386	0.88077562051696	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-23 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	301	16	76.57	55.14	65.855	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	44.57	599.57	208	443.60911382386	0.88361743822275	95	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-23 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	76.14	53.59	64.865	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	44.14	584.14	208	443.60911382386	0.87403220212792	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-22 20:07:04	FORECAST	2021	301	16	76.02	53.6	64.81	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	44.02	605.02	208	443.60911382386	0.87126196973938	95	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-22 20:04:00	FORECAST	2021	301	16	76.02	53.6	64.81	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	44.02	605.02	208	443.60911382386	0.87126196973938	95	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-22 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	76.05	54.26	65.155	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	44.05	605.05	208	443.60911382386	0.87195844664647	95	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-22 16:00:07	FORECAST	2021	301	16	76.23	54.29	65.26	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	44.23	603.23	208	443.60911382386	0.87608249250765	95	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-22 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	73.54	51.15	62.345	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	41.54	598.54	208	443.60911382386	0.80454208100428	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-22 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	73.53	51.18	62.355	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	41.53	593.53	208	443.60911382386	0.80423651949881	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-22 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	301	16	72.56	50.64	61.6	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	40.56	596.56	208	443.60911382386	0.77324085435083	95	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2021-07-22 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	75.2	51.55	63.375	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	43.2	585.2	208	443.60911382386	0.85120583537705	95	5	2	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2021-07-21 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	75.63	52.61	64.12	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	43.63	605.63	208	443.60911382386	0.86196898290988	95	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-21 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	75.66	52.66	64.16	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	43.66	609.66	208	443.60911382386	0.86269961977044	95	5	2	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2021-07-21 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	64.53	50.69	57.61	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	32.53	590.53	208	443.60911382386	0.4449820074169	95	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2021-07-21 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	301	16	53.28	50.97	52.125	0	0	0.03	0.03	F	F	21.28	573.28	208	443.60911382386	0.083340427244348	95	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2021-07-21 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	301	16	51.75	50.97	51.36	0	0	0.04	0.04	F	F	19.75	577.75	208	443.60911382386	0.060264588869911	95	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L