MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 22, 2021

[ Wednesday, July 21, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, July 23, 2021 ]

DAY 295 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/23/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 58.84°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.99°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.289
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 27
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 558

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 202
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 440.05 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 10

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-07-23 04:00:07OBSERVATION20212951058.8399835.1546.994990000.030.03FF26.83998557.83998202440.0508718017 00.2893743842284194 22415220DRYL
2021-07-23 00:00:04FORECAST20212951044.6744.6744.670000.030.03FF12.67543.67203440.6495602603600.0203442376137689412415217.5DRYL
2021-07-22 12:00:02FORECAST20212951063.1447.3255.237.2564613333333000.030.03FF31.14562.14203443.521360899283.2183956058730.458747764895369422413212DRYL
2021-07-22 08:00:03FORECAST20212951063.7337.5150.626.9541000.030.03FF31.73562.73203443.402752906633.0834670839880.483399405853889422413212DRYL
2021-07-22 04:00:07FORECAST20212951062.7737.8650.3156.7600531666667000.030.03FF30.77561.77203443.326585695612.99691128949910.443362806293229422413212DRYL
2021-07-22 00:00:05FORECAST20212951063.7637.5450.654.48352933333330.00010.00010.030.0301FF31.76547.76202441.838286636281.98099491872350.484655379277829422414216DRYL
2021-07-21 20:00:02FORECAST20212951063.941.7352.8155.49757866666670.00020.00020.030.0302FF31.9565.9202442.23973527372.4312477341930.490518400470489422414216DRYL
2021-07-21 16:00:02FORECAST20212951063.7842.2152.9955.45991333333330.00130.00130.030.0313FF31.78565.78202442.22484255212.41450931418140.485492780249369422414216DRYL
2021-07-21 12:00:06FORECAST20212951062.9539.3751.164.3339440.00130.00130.030.0313FF30.95564.95202441.778980230081.91464536069430.450838182000329422414216DRYL
2021-07-21 08:00:06FORECAST20212951063.6942.1352.913.9586573333333000.030.03FF31.69562.69202441.630090330091.74826219570590.481725032980439422414216DRYL
2021-07-21 04:00:07FORECAST20212951063.1241.9352.5253.4032732500.010.030.04FF31.12567.12202441.409488623791.50223710492950.457914352439939422414216DRYL
2021-07-21 00:00:06FORECAST20212951059.2642.6450.950000.030.03FF27.26548.26202440.050871801700.304641570151669422415220DRYL
2021-07-20 20:00:05FORECAST20212951064.4242.2853.351.22645200.020.030.05FF32.42571.42202440.541836403720.540303416341010.512303236852039432414218DRYL
2021-07-20 16:00:05FORECAST20212951064.8142.2153.511.19086400.020.030.05FF32.81571.81202440.527611602510.524608473663410.528621350919489432414218DRYL
2021-07-20 12:00:03FORECAST20212951064.0441.7652.9000.020.030.05FF32.04571.04202440.050871801700.496383471061879422415220DRYL
2021-07-20 08:00:02FORECAST20212951064.8142.0753.44000.010.030.04FF32.81571.81202440.050871801700.528621350919489432415222.5DRYL
2021-07-20 04:00:08FORECAST20212951064.8542.1953.520000.030.03FF32.85571.85202440.050871801700.530292754300549432415222.5DRYL
2021-07-20 00:00:06FORECAST20212951065.0442.1453.59000.010.030.04FF33.04555.04202440.050871801700.538224133635189432415222.5DRYL
2021-07-19 20:00:06FORECAST20212951067.1942.6854.935000.010.030.04FF35.19574.19202440.050871801700.626185661017959432415222.5DRYL
2021-07-19 16:00:06FORECAST20212951066.7543.0654.905000.010.030.04FF34.75574.75202440.050871801700.608555383916859432415222.5DRYL
2021-07-19 12:00:06FORECAST20212951064.1942.3153.25000.020.030.05FF32.19571.19202440.050871801700.502668309344729432415222.5DRYL
2021-07-19 08:00:06FORECAST20212951069.4642.2155.835000.010.030.04FF37.46575.46202440.050871801700.712323903330769442415150DRYMH
2021-07-19 04:00:07FORECAST20212951069.4739.6454.555000.010.030.04FF37.47576.47202440.050871801700.712681979450839442415150DRYMH
2021-07-19 00:00:06FORECAST20212951069.9142.8656.385000.010.030.04FF37.91567.91202440.050871801700.728224912061699442415150DRYMH
2021-07-18 20:00:05FORECAST20212951070.1743.6656.915000.020.040.06FF38.17581.17202440.050871801700.737208695994659442415150DRYMH
2021-07-18 16:00:05FORECAST20212951068.7342.9855.855000.030.040.07FF36.73581.73202440.050871801700.685633974971749432415145DRYM
2021-07-18 12:00:06FORECAST20212951066.5742.0254.295000.040.040.08FF34.57579.57202440.050871801700.601275913453369432415222.5DRYL
2021-07-18 08:00:05FORECAST20212951066.2442.6654.450000.030.03FF34.24578.24202440.050871801700.587840056078679432415222.5DRYL
2021-07-18 04:00:07FORECAST20212951063.6242.6653.140000.030.03FF31.62575.62202440.050871801700.478795673722289422415220DRYL
2021-07-18 00:00:06FORECAST20212951067.5343.2355.380000.030.03FF35.53562.53202440.050871801700.639632651597349432415222.5DRYL
2021-07-17 20:00:05FORECAST20212951068.0640.8554.455000.010.030.04FF36.06584.06202440.050871801700.660248742739719432415145DRYM
2021-07-17 16:00:06FORECAST20212951068.140.8454.470000.030.03FF36.1584.1202440.050871801700.661786321508399432415145DRYM
2021-07-17 12:00:06FORECAST20212951069.0746.157.5850000.030.03FF37.07582.07202440.050871801700.698197456321799432415145DRYM
2021-07-17 08:00:06FORECAST20212951068.5745.8157.190000.030.03FF36.57588.57202440.050871801700.679645346477249432415145DRYM
2021-07-17 04:00:07FORECAST20212951068.5945.8157.20000.030.03FF36.59590.59202440.050871801700.680396528823029432415145DRYM
2021-07-17 00:00:06FORECAST20212951068.1146.2557.180000.040.04FF36.11589.11202440.050871801700.662170296476669432415145DRYM
2021-07-16 20:00:06FORECAST20212951067.8346.6557.240000.050.05FF35.83604.83202440.050871801700.651356558544289432515225DRYL
2021-07-16 16:00:06FORECAST20212951068.0546.6357.340000.040.04FF36.05605.05202440.050871801700.659863930075129432515150DRYMH
2021-07-16 12:00:06FORECAST20212951067.4145.2656.3350000.050.05FF35.41597.41202440.050871801700.634905352805989432415222.5DRYL
2021-07-16 08:00:05FORECAST20212951063.7744.9254.3450000.060.06FF31.77572.77202440.050871801700.485074071535459422415220DRYL
2021-07-16 04:00:07FORECAST20212951063.7944.9254.3550000.060.06FF31.79575.79202440.050871801700.485911504958319422415220DRYL
2021-07-16 00:00:06FORECAST20212951062.4244.3453.380000.010.01FF30.42567.42202440.050871801700.428887242604129422415220DRYL
2021-07-15 20:00:06FORECAST20212951062.1444.653.370000.030.03FF30.14580.14202440.050871801700.417374306176179422415220DRYL
2021-07-15 16:00:06FORECAST20212951062.1444.653.370000.020.02FF30.14582.14202440.050871801700.417374306176179422415220DRYL
2021-07-15 12:00:06FORECAST20212951054.2243.6248.920000.010.01FF22.22572.22202440.050871801700.149026689368899412415217.5DRYL
2021-07-15 08:00:06FORECAST20212951045.8643.4744.66500000FF13.86560.86202440.050871801700.0273629431723819412415217.5DRYL
2021-07-15 04:00:07FORECAST20212951045.8643.8744.8650000.010.01FF13.86571.86202440.050871801700.0273629431723819412415217.5DRYL