MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, June 28, 2021

[ Sunday, June 27, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, June 29, 2021 ]

DAY 271 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/29/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 88.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 73.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 80.90°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.998
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 56
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 569

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.77 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.77 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 37 in
SWE DAY: 178
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 440.49 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 16.30 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -14

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 1
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-29 04:00:08OBSERVATION2021271-1488.1999673.5999880.8999736.994676666667001.771.77FF56.19996569.19996178440.48695457295 16.2956724603110.9979774269993294 51411110DRYL
2021-06-29 00:00:02FORECAST2021271-1373.7473.7473.7440.7718213333330.00170.00171.771.7717FF41.74554.74179442.5812796819518.0448448606710.934635222478479451411110DRYL
2021-06-28 12:00:05FORECAST2021271-1391.8776.3284.09541.2614560.00090.00091.771.7709FF59.87572.87179442.7743251662518.2695133357770.999360873071279451411110DRYL
2021-06-28 08:00:02FORECAST2021271-1393.9973.4283.70540.2142613333330.01360.01361.771.7836FF61.99574.99179442.3611611080417.7892273365150.999687550263429451411110DRYL
2021-06-28 04:00:07FORECAST2021271-1393.6773.0783.3739.68475050.0210.0211.771.791FF61.67574.67179442.1518272365117.5466849470.999651087118979451411110DRYL
2021-06-28 00:00:04FORECAST2021271-1494.1973.6683.92540.2906506666670.00250.00251.771.7725FF62.19565.19178441.7992800966117.8003804591570.999708502372299451411110DRYL
2021-06-27 20:00:02FORECAST2021271-1494.1972.4583.3244.52385866666700.011.771.78FF62.19579.19178443.4687380291919.7449394150970.999708502372299451411110DRYL
2021-06-27 16:00:02FORECAST2021271-1494.0572.783.37544.476900.011.771.78FF62.05579.05178443.450317139819.7232954103950.999693978786989451411110DRYL
2021-06-27 12:00:05FORECAST2021271-1493.7275.4984.60540.8975453333330.00060.01061.771.7806FF61.72578.72178442.0397259275818.0783397302570.999657034183299451411110DRYL
2021-06-27 08:00:05FORECAST2021271-1493.7275.5484.6340.0353973333330.00120.00121.771.7712FF61.72574.72178441.6980403992117.6835565487370.999657034183299451411110DRYL
2021-06-27 04:00:07FORECAST2021271-1493.9775.6184.7939.6367703333330.00020.01021.771.7802FF61.97580.97178441.5398038553717.501211798440.999685379609189451411110DRYL
2021-06-27 00:00:05FORECAST2021271-1494.1873.7583.96541.139393333333001.771.77FF62.18566.18178442.1354405448418.1891837951810.999707486675149451411110DRYL
2021-06-26 20:00:05FORECAST2021271-1494.5975.3384.9644.13037333333300.011.771.78FF62.59582.59178443.314314123419.5636261862760.999746534573169451411110DRYL
2021-06-26 16:00:05FORECAST2021271-1493.9475.0384.48544.27901200.011.771.78FF61.94580.94178443.372665729619.6321035863130.999682097269219451411110DRYL
2021-06-26 12:00:05FORECAST2021271-1493.3975.3184.3541.00136266666700.011.771.78FF61.39580.39178442.0808202441218.1259160388070.999615971454339451411110DRYL
2021-06-26 08:00:05FORECAST2021271-1493.3275.0884.240.28156666666700.011.771.78FF61.32577.32178441.7956782869517.7962220679610.999606693031999451411110DRYL
2021-06-26 04:00:07FORECAST2021271-1493.3375.0584.1939.84039058333300.011.771.78FF61.33582.33178441.6206517261517.5943392544360.999608031159769451411110DRYL
2021-06-26 00:00:06FORECAST2021271-1492.5774.5583.5640.86198266666700.011.771.78FF60.57569.57178442.0256465619818.0620443080380.999493327946059451411110DRYL
2021-06-25 20:00:05FORECAST2021271-1493.4874.0483.7643.996790666667001.781.78FF61.48581.48178443.26185430519.5020990143750.999627601873599451411110DRYL
2021-06-25 16:00:05FORECAST2021271-1494.4573.9284.18543.88948001.781.78FF62.45581.45178443.2196989809719.4526821140310.999733784066749451411110DRYL
2021-06-25 12:00:06FORECAST2021271-1496.2373.6584.9441.2590840.00030.00031.781.7803FF64.23583.23178442.182787999818.2440567934380.999859057071299451411110DRYL
2021-06-25 08:00:06FORECAST2021271-1493.9973.6883.83540.7173920.00030.00031.791.7903FF61.99580.99178441.9683895877517.9958001704530.999687550263429451411110DRYL
2021-06-25 04:00:07FORECAST2021271-1496.4171.7184.0640.0779413333330.00080.00081.781.7808FF64.41584.41178441.714918945917.7030246075720.999868026228679451411110DRYL
2021-06-25 00:00:05FORECAST2021271-1495.6474.7485.1941.342252001.781.78FF63.64575.64178442.2156792758718.2821920509740.999825483720199451411110DRYL
2021-06-24 20:00:06FORECAST2021271-1495.9972.5284.25543.540801333333001.781.78FF63.99586.99178443.0826466485119.292173491970.999846206291689451411110DRYL
2021-06-24 16:00:06FORECAST2021271-1496.0573.5484.79543.315192001.781.78FF64.05588.05178442.9939034946219.1883659846990.999849518219379451411110DRYL
2021-06-24 12:00:05FORECAST2021271-1496.7775.6586.2141.026353333333001.781.78FF64.77590.77178442.0907107541718.1373697047850.999884380474959451411110DRYL
2021-06-24 08:00:05FORECAST2021271-1493.1675.1984.17540.682226666667001.781.78FF61.16582.16178441.9544611625917.9796915653610.999584697160699451411110DRYL
2021-06-24 04:00:08FORECAST2021271-1497.1875.1586.16539.966998166667001.781.78FF65.18591.18178441.6709004686917.6522600693020.999900680580819451411110DRYL
2021-06-24 00:00:06FORECAST2021271-1496.1268.1982.15541.8084346666670.05380.05381.781.8338FF64.12576.12178442.3999165990318.4960480096690.999853297557199451411110DRYL
2021-06-23 20:00:05FORECAST2021271-1496.1268.0982.10543.8333626666670.05380.05381.781.8338FF64.12594.12178443.197649584719.426843307260.999853297557199451411110DRYL
2021-06-23 16:00:01FORECAST2021271-1496.9169.5383.2243.6006466666670.05450.05451.781.8345FF64.91595.91178443.1061782041219.3197159116950.99989021001389451411110DRYL
2021-06-23 12:00:05FORECAST2021271-1498.0373.4385.7341.4920986666670.01790.01791.781.7979FF66.03595.03178442.2749230930918.3509147467710.999927837872659451411110DRYL
2021-06-23 08:00:06FORECAST2021271-1496.3673.6985.02541.1293853333330.01820.01821.771.7882FF64.36590.36178442.1314809095718.1845960463270.999865590088389451411110DRYL
2021-06-23 04:00:07FORECAST2021271-1496.4273.7285.0741.10375050.01890.01891.771.7889FF64.42593.42178442.121338105318.1728451722060.999868508454889451411110DRYL
2021-06-23 00:00:05FORECAST2021271-1492.7464.8778.80543.5859440.05290.06291.771.8329FF60.74581.74178443.1003973559919.3129491055360.999521403261459451411110DRYL
2021-06-22 20:00:06FORECAST2021271-1492.7565.1678.95545.6609466666670.05290.06291.791.8529FF60.75597.75178443.9141234521320.2695391155280.999523008947999451411110DRYL
2021-06-22 16:00:06FORECAST2021271-1492.264.5178.35545.6414853333330.05330.06331.781.8433FF60.2596.2178443.90651146720.2605525324920.999426866814659451411110DRYL
2021-06-22 12:00:05FORECAST2021271-1493.1570.3481.74543.2747466666670.02150.02151.781.8015FF61.15599.15178442.9779889962619.1697602527230.999583285165559451511111DRYL
2021-06-22 08:00:06FORECAST2021271-1494.8170.9482.87542.6285320.02160.02161.781.8016FF62.81596.81178442.7234934865318.8726526092420.999765424500679451411110DRYL
2021-06-22 04:00:07FORECAST2021271-1494.8170.9782.8942.2547850.02160.02161.771.7916FF62.81597.81178442.5761117869918.7009584496950.999765424500679451411110DRYL
2021-06-22 00:00:05FORECAST2021271-1494.5271.1882.8544.9906266666670.00380.03381.781.8138FF62.52577.52178443.6517218068919.9601689858380.999740232338519451411110DRYL
2021-06-21 20:00:05FORECAST2021271-1497.7771.2184.4949.1097080.00310.03311.781.8131FF65.77596.77178445.2571263733521.8664474611140.999920381272529451411110DRYL
2021-06-21 16:00:06FORECAST2021271-1497.7671.2284.4950.2696253333330.00250.03251.791.8225FF65.76596.76178445.7061794625922.4054826503360.999920080460719451411110DRYL
2021-06-21 12:00:06FORECAST2021271-1486.571.8179.15548.4473666666670.00110.00111.791.7911FF54.5592.5178445.0001119617821.559083590920.996677711079479451411110DRYL
2021-06-21 08:00:06FORECAST2021271-1474.1671.8172.98548.7039173333330.00110.00111.791.7911FF42.16577.16178445.0997149889121.678099723910.93951584928779451411110DRYL
2021-06-21 04:00:07FORECAST2021271-1472.3971.6972.0448.9717339166670.00030.00031.781.7803FF40.39581.39178445.2036226667621.8023933479730.916874282701339451411110DRYL