Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, June 15, 2021

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DAY 258 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/16/2021 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.28°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.63°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.46°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.198 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 340 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.33 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.24 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.22 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.46 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 96 in SWE DAY: 165 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.67 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 43.91 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -27 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-16 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2021	258	-27	43.28006	35.63006	39.45506	96.371198333333	0.32999999999993	1.2399999999999	2.22	3.4599999999999	T	F	11.28006	340.28006	165	455.66838103444	43.913307922899	0.19798885234735	92	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-06-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	258	-26	38.74	38.74	38.74	96.963154666667	0.0022	0.9122	2.22	3.1322	F	F	6.74	335.74	166	456.42071944908	44.255992813012	0.10388283191693	92	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-06-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	258	-26	48.01	39.18	43.595	97.204381333333	0.1477	1.0577	2.22	3.2777	T	F	16.01	345.01	166	456.50737947852	44.374517396311	0.33685356426829	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	258	-26	47.99	39.67	43.83	96.982270666667	0.2129	1.1229	2.22	3.3429	T	F	15.99	344.99	166	456.42758875784	44.265383952647	0.33619353998015	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-15 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	258	-26	47.2	39.48	43.34	96.856557166667	0.1786	1.0886	2.22	3.3086	T	F	15.2	344.2	166	456.38240766518	44.203628757884	0.31054358405491	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-15 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	48.21	39.05	43.63	97.606601333333	0.2096	0.8696	2.22	3.0896	F	F	16.21	341.21	165	456.11399347655	44.51973672382	0.34348114856078	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	47.87	39.17	43.52	98.601353333333	0.1757	1.1257	2.22	3.3457	T	F	15.87	350.87	165	456.47178773263	45.008736028923	0.33224404500486	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	47.84	39.32	43.58	98.558822666667	0.1517	1.1017	2.22	3.3217	T	F	15.84	350.84	165	456.45650871553	44.98781609754	0.33125955209694	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-14 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	48.05	39.41	43.73	97.442310666667	0.1659	1.1159	2.22	3.3359	T	F	16.05	351.05	165	456.05481407113	44.439034873748	0.33817511848329	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-14 08:00:04	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	48.08	39.51	43.795	97.121417333333	0.1686	1.1486	2.22	3.3686	T	F	16.08	352.08	165	455.93915331848	44.281456788051	0.33916759457506	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-14 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	48.16	39.51	43.835	97.270351428571	0.1707	1.2407	2.22	3.4607	T	F	16.16	351.16	165	455.99284590015	44.354584369622	0.34181963963199	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-14 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	47.84	39.41	43.625	97.475585333333	0.1891	0.6991	2.22	2.9191	F	F	15.84	345.84	165	456.06680198678	44.455378474763	0.33125955209694	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-13 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	47.72	39.87	43.795	98.641936	0.1794	1.0294	2.22	3.2494	T	F	15.72	351.72	165	456.48636539763	45.028698840426	0.32733327966927	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-13 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	48.03	39.59	43.81	98.406596	1.0925	1.8925	2.22	4.1125	T	F	16.03	358.03	165	456.40180820423	44.912948353623	0.33751409102792	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-06-13 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	48.82	39.47	44.145	97.032713333333	1.1018	1.8618	2.22	4.0818	T	F	16.82	357.82	165	455.90716477782	44.237909226499	0.36398668125366	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-06-13 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	47.93	39.34	43.635	96.598714666667	0.1817	0.9717	2.22	3.1917	F	F	15.93	359.93	165	455.75055173101	44.02491750584	0.33421649963195	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-13 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	48.06	39.37	43.715	96.24460325	0.1863	1.1163	2.22	3.3363	T	F	16.06	356.06	165	455.62263888852	43.851220111543	0.3385058194157	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-13 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	49.13	39.4	44.265	96.752638666667	0.1997	1.2397	2.06	3.2997	T	F	17.13	355.13	165	455.80611660594	44.100444502031	0.37456313853539	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-12 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	48.31	40.29	44.3	97.847813333333	0.2865	1.2365	2.14	3.3765	T	F	16.31	367.31	165	456.20083610549	44.638254253761	0.34681322237459	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-12 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	50.86	40.59	45.725	97.724649333333	0.3081	1.3981	2.14	3.5381	T	F	18.86	368.86	165	456.15650049196	44.577734051698	0.43511683150239	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-12 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	48.85	40.48	44.665	96.378154666667	0.3709	1.6609	2.14	3.8009	T	F	16.85	366.85	165	455.67089411504	43.916719910117	0.36500584290546	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2021-06-12 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	48.69	39.68	44.185	96.172772	0.3861	1.8461	2.14	3.9861	T	F	16.69	360.69	165	455.59667782011	43.815995419951	0.35958150007359	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2021-06-12 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	49.05	39.64	44.345	95.804426916667	0.3785	1.7285	2.16	3.8885	T	F	17.05	366.05	165	455.46347702689	43.635417398034	0.3718243172077	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2021-06-12 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	50.15	40.66	45.405	102.621896	0.3894	1.9994	1.79	3.7894	T	F	18.15	364.15	165	457.90872822897	46.991461885806	0.40999372665593	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2021-06-11 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	49.41	39.51	44.46	103.493976	0.5327	2.4827	2.24	4.7227	T	F	17.41	373.41	165	458.21847735652	47.422852098293	0.38419809580776	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-06-11 16:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	49.08	40.72	44.9	103.45068	0.5155	2.2955	2.35	4.6455	T	F	17.08	371.08	165	458.20311547779	47.401423874296	0.3728506240051	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-06-11 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	49.57	40.92	45.245	102.72820533333	0.4663	2.0863	2.39	4.4763	T	F	17.57	373.57	165	457.94652436786	47.044024586948	0.38973650987098	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-06-11 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	50.39	40.7	45.545	102.78429333333	0.4767	1.9767	2.23	4.2067	T	F	18.39	371.39	165	457.96646121247	47.071759086091	0.41845017992463	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-06-11 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	50.41	40.69	45.55	102.82605108333	0.4767	2.0467	2.26	4.3067	T	F	18.41	373.41	165	457.9813024321	47.092408799095	0.41915664582026	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-06-11 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	51.02	40.65	45.835	95.155298666667	0.3961	1.6061	2.48	4.0861	T	F	19.02	374.02	165	455.22843600393	43.317397789513	0.4408185472884	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-06-10 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	50.88	40.58	45.73	96.474333333333	0.457	1.427	2.61	4.037	T	F	18.88	377.88	165	455.70563556195	43.963897387082	0.43582883377806	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-06-10 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	50.01	40.32	45.165	96.500956	0.4755	1.3255	2.51	3.8355	T	F	18.01	376.01	165	455.71525064349	43.976957350877	0.40507978804604	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-10 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	49.09	40.09	44.59	95.921926666667	0.5671	1.4271	2.46	3.8871	T	F	17.09	374.09	165	455.5059807738	43.693011284013	0.37319292725848	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-10 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	48.1	40.23	44.165	96.007425333333	0.3238	1.1938	2.5	3.6938	T	F	16.1	362.1	165	455.53690064322	43.734924975082	0.33982986597058	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-10 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	48.11	40.25	44.18	96.147477166667	0.3238	1.0938	2.53	3.6238	T	F	16.11	372.11	165	455.5875346978	43.803592089774	0.3401611871971	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-10 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	49.08	38.86	43.97	96.620221333333	0.205	1.415	2.42	3.835	T	F	17.08	370.08	165	455.75831670735	44.035469434772	0.3728506240051	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-09 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	48.57	38.09	43.33	97.409481333333	0.2326	0.7926	2.26	3.0526	F	F	16.57	389.57	165	456.04298560343	44.422910693335	0.35553165069981	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	48.97	38.08	43.525	97.671717333333	0.2326	0.8226	2.42	3.2426	F	F	16.97	387.97	165	456.13744218286	44.551727318034	0.36909196469152	92	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2021-06-09 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	53.86	43.08	48.47	96.238193333333	0.1324	0.8424	2.23	3.0724	F	F	21.86	389.86	165	455.62032242515	43.848076676147	0.54296372030223	92	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-06-09 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	47.22	39.44	43.33	96.775512	0.2445	1.0345	2.26	3.2945	T	F	15.22	382.22	165	455.81437177446	44.111669205432	0.31118239326595	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	47.21	39.43	43.32	97.3239285	0.2445	1.0345	2.23	3.2645	T	F	15.21	379.21	165	456.01215612931	44.38089447826	0.31086291746727	92	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2021-06-09 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	49.93	41.64	45.785	98.605116	0.3042	2.0242	2.31	4.3342	T	F	17.93	370.93	165	456.47313938011	45.010586859459	0.40227847310897	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-06-08 19:58:55	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	52.3	44.12	48.21	99.847672	0.1567	1.8467	2.41	4.2567	T	F	20.3	384.3	165	456.91879196717	45.622277670975	0.4867756580868	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-06-08 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	52.32	44.12	48.22	100.145824	0.1281	1.8181	2.36	4.1781	T	F	20.32	383.32	165	457.02551747614	45.769197036675	0.48749674279009	92	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2021-06-08 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	42.48	41.14	41.81	101.20695866667	0.1988	1.4888	2.34	3.8288	T	F	10.48	363.48	165	457.40470270554	46.292538840659	0.17847176790086	92	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-06-08 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	42.08	41.15	41.615	101.58503333333	0.1517	1.4417	2.55	3.9917	T	F	10.08	356.08	165	457.53955693451	46.479171142511	0.16918391073411	92	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-06-08 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	258	-27	44.54	42.88	43.71	101.18085475	0.0358	1.2058	2.57	3.7758	T	F	12.54	367.54	165	457.39538700378	46.279656215749	0.23121125476629	92	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L