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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, June 11, 2021

[ Thursday, June 10, 2021 | Index | Today | Saturday, June 12, 2021 ]

DAY 254 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 06/12/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.04°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.23°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.64°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.138
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 323

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.35 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.38 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.99 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.37 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 104 in
SWE DAY: 161
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.17 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 47.32 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -31

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-06-12 04:00:07OBSERVATION2021254-3140.0400633.2299436.635103.738309583330.350000000000020.380000000000022.993.37FF8.04006323.04006161456.16708791568 47.3220025879240.1375050038425692 1122124DRYL
2021-06-12 00:00:02FORECAST2021254-3037.8637.8637.86110.967965333330.00140.03142.993.0214FF5.86320.86162459.2738058242250.964679763210.098072978211129921121122DRYL
2021-06-11 12:00:03FORECAST2021254-3047.1237.1442.13111.256369333330.38410.41412.993.4041FF15.12330.12162459.3753187244551.1084301226260.33016904058602922122125DRYL
2021-06-11 08:00:02FORECAST2021254-3044.3536.4540.4111.258610666670.33770.36772.993.3577FF12.35327.35162459.3761073413751.1095474762630.24367489172111921122124DRYL
2021-06-11 04:00:07FORECAST2021254-3046.4738.6942.58111.199727083330.38210.41212.993.4021FF14.47329.47162459.3553875626751.0801937312280.30878391944113922122125DRYL
2021-06-11 00:00:05FORECAST2021254-3147.0537.7942.42103.8305160.47180.49182.993.4818FF15.05326.05161456.2002784860647.3675103145520.32783756464425922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-10 20:00:02FORECAST2021254-3146.8435.9741.405104.954390666670.44590.48592.993.4759FF14.84333.84161456.6042036083347.922615965550.32088356289222922122125DRYL
2021-06-10 16:00:03FORECAST2021254-3146.4537.0441.745104.907377333330.43030.47032.993.4603FF14.45333.45161456.5873299234847.8993793059020.30813559966403922122125DRYL
2021-06-10 12:00:04FORECAST2021254-3146.837.7442.27104.253837333330.41680.45682.993.4468FF14.8333.8161456.3525572717747.5765052724620.31956598486654922122125DRYL
2021-06-10 08:00:05FORECAST2021254-3146.3837.942.14104.258374666670.43210.47212.993.4621FF14.38329.38161456.3541885721247.5787459728540.30587119696237922122125DRYL
2021-06-10 04:00:06FORECAST2021254-3146.4937.6742.08104.572485166670.43840.49842.993.4884TF14.49333.49161456.4670745386547.7338963812640.3094328351322922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-10 00:00:05FORECAST2021254-3145.737.5441.62105.0141240.54690.58692.993.5769TF13.7324.7161456.6256397571347.9521415550340.28426892544715922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-09 20:00:05FORECAST2021254-3146.3937.0941.74106.017786666670.41430.51432.993.5043TF14.39337.39161456.9853322545948.4485734647630.30619423223613922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-09 16:00:05FORECAST2021254-314635.940.95106.105034666670.4860.5762.993.566TF14336161457.0165568828748.4917576112970.29370943524451922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-09 12:00:05FORECAST2021254-3146.2137.3241.765105.314773333330.41630.50632.993.4963TF14.21336.21161456.7334826420648.1007831981930.30040283670676922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-09 08:00:06FORECAST2021254-3146.5937.6642.125105.2080640.42220.51222.993.5022TF14.59336.59161456.6952154425148.0480194547690.31268629434189922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-09 04:00:08FORECAST2021254-314737.6542.325105.66332850.39840.48842.993.4784FF15337161456.8584063047948.2731798633690.32617631396606922122125DRYL
2021-06-09 00:00:06FORECAST2021254-3144.4936.9640.725107.3971560.40490.52492.993.5149TF12.49322.49161457.4781767490449.1318551149120.24773436056488921123126DRYL
2021-06-08 19:58:55FORECAST2021254-3147.1637.2142.185108.247642666670.36960.49963.133.6296TF15.16340.16161457.7811936336849.5537350679790.33150428477765922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-08 16:00:06FORECAST2021254-3145.8737.4241.645108.225393333330.35020.49023.133.6202TF13.87338.87161457.7732748328549.5426927262740.28960076435043922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-08 12:00:06FORECAST2021254-3146.4537.441.925107.647949333330.37410.49413.133.6241TF14.45339.45161457.5675990814349.2562137224930.30813559966403922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-08 08:00:06FORECAST2021254-3146.3937.5841.985107.779149333330.56740.69743.143.8374TF14.39334.39161457.6143567819849.3212860966830.30619423223613922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-08 04:00:08FORECAST2021254-3146.3937.1241.755108.039061416670.58040.71043.153.8604TF14.39334.39161457.7069395299649.4502281507120.30619423223613922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-08 00:00:06FORECAST2021254-3147.9537.0342.49103.7616560.48390.63392.793.4239TF15.95325.95161456.1754924137647.3335245194670.35829526795254922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-07 20:00:04FORECAST2021254-3147.7435.1941.465103.581693333330.50940.66942.843.5094TF15.74341.74161456.1106945995747.2447180940670.35109862605838922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-07 16:00:06FORECAST2021254-3147.7636.4542.105103.5279560.4820.6522.843.492TF15.76340.76161456.0913400556447.2182041852610.35178177378493922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-07 11:58:54FORECAST2021254-3145.1935.9140.55103.57999523910.34440.51442.883.3944FF13.19334.19161456.1100830383847.243880229620.26856079339115922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-07 08:00:06FORECAST2021254-3141.4136.4138.91103.744663039710.25220.40222.973.3722FF9.41326.41161456.1693751516647.3251381141450.16718470113589921122124DRYL
2021-06-07 04:00:08FORECAST2021254-3144.4536.4140.43103.845974149450.25670.39673.023.4167FF12.45337.45161456.2058420321447.3751400784980.24657084556497921122124DRYL
2021-06-07 00:00:06FORECAST2021254-3145.537.6341.565105.240190666670.46370.58372.883.4637TF13.5333.5161456.7067375275648.0639041361520.27805683387491922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-06 20:00:06FORECAST2021254-3145.4834.8740.175104.474899351350.50050.70053.293.9905TF13.48349.48161456.4320135013247.6856886712840.27743928182436922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-06 16:00:06FORECAST2021254-3145.5137.5341.52105.244848499850.4950.6653.323.985TF13.51349.51161456.7084079605248.0662072044110.27836586088692922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-06 12:00:05FORECAST2021254-3152.3837.3844.88105.926872465180.25470.35473.263.6147TF20.38360.38161456.9527881901548.4035797172270.51790285241705923122126DRYL
2021-06-06 07:59:06FORECAST2021254-3152.3837.3744.875105.844607784750.25470.37473.223.5947TF20.38357.38161456.9233338705448.3628710612280.51790285241705923122126DRYL
2021-06-06 04:00:08FORECAST2021254-3150.7336.5643.645106.470827263590.21850.31853.213.5285FF18.73349.73161457.1473927589148.6728610884320.45737898775503922122125DRYL
2021-06-06 00:00:06FORECAST2021254-3152.7436.1544.445108.261106054520.3380.4582.52.958FF20.74342.74161457.785985195349.56041709350.53110157304118923122126DRYL
2021-06-05 20:00:07FORECAST2021254-3150.4935.0642.775107.061110652220.35850.51852.673.1885FF18.49350.49161457.3582678067848.9652841173690.44862423224855922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-05 16:00:06FORECAST2021254-3150.5335.0742.8107.033525318860.35850.51852.713.2285FF18.53349.53161457.3484201598348.9516137087180.45008173919216922123127.5DRYL
2021-06-05 12:00:06FORECAST2021254-3157.4337.9247.675106.717935533670.02320.26322.672.9332FF25.43351.43161457.2357091184548.7952509293960.69493746526136923122126DRYL
2021-06-05 08:00:42FORECAST2021254-3153.9438.7346.335106.745552845650.05710.28712.783.0671FF21.94351.94161457.2455760871748.8089318056530.57477087865903923122126DRYL
2021-06-05 04:00:09FORECAST2021254-3153.9738.7346.35105.910787270930.05710.30712.733.0371FF21.97358.97161456.9470294777748.3956196331020.5758532073488923122126DRYL
2021-06-04 23:59:01FORECAST2021254-3152.1335.2543.69107.115402666030.04540.13542.62.7354FF20.13370.13161457.3776474164148.9921908734490.50872464275589923122126DRYL
2021-06-04 20:00:06FORECAST2021254-3148.5532.2940.42109.117799584420.01370.26372.592.8537FF16.55363.55161458.0905420326749.9858319570380.37912818452506922122125DRYL
2021-06-04 16:00:06FORECAST2021254-3148.5832.2940.435109.457662160080.00660.26662.62.8666FF16.58362.58161458.2111806008250.1547246041760.38017968523574922122125DRYL
2021-06-04 12:00:06FORECAST2021254-3157.6941.9149.8107.658769042820.00060.28062.532.8106FF25.69374.69161457.5714556521949.2615796646460.70327284930052924122127DRYL
2021-06-04 08:00:06FORECAST2021254-3145.742.4844.09107.054493576430.00020.29022.442.7302FF13.7371.7161457.3559056496848.9620048635170.28426892544715922122125DRYL
2021-06-04 04:00:09FORECAST2021254-3144.5242.5743.545107.244178290290.00020.28022.392.6702FF12.52364.52161457.4236033684849.0560184738370.24860891410949921122124DRYL