Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 22, 2021

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DAY 234 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/23/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.90°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.84°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.87°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.470 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 18 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 267 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.09 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.28 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.29 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.57 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 139 in SWE DAY: 141 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.00 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 63.56 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -51 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-23 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	234	-51	49.89992	33.83996	41.86994	138.77760958333	0.090000000000032	0.28000000000003	2.29	2.57	F	F	17.89992	266.89992	141	457.99766616873	63.559821305641	0.46996056807397	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-23 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	234	-50	34.85	34.85	34.85	139.98442	0.0018	0.1918	2.29	2.4818	F	F	2.85	251.85	142	458.95484801645	64.246528205771	0.08365754274024	90	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-22 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	234	-50	52.64	39	45.82	139.954828	0.0177	0.2077	2.29	2.4977	F	F	20.64	269.64	142	458.94440399501	64.231485122684	0.56442391211564	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-22 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	234	-50	53.17	37.8	45.485	139.682588	0.0171	0.2071	2.29	2.4971	F	F	21.17	270.17	142	458.84828441649	64.093115866656	0.58244253360002	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-22 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	234	-50	53.99	33.72	43.855	139.39514433333	0.0158	0.2058	2.29	2.4958	F	F	21.99	270.99	142	458.74672472743	63.947065905824	0.60996969553092	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-22 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	54.27	33.96	44.115	138.47851733333	0.0657	0.2557	2.29	2.5457	F	F	22.27	262.27	141	457.89134277954	63.408114247879	0.61925172286622	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-21 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	53.06	35.46	44.26	139.51273866667	0.0756	0.2956	2.29	2.5856	F	F	21.06	275.06	141	458.25865196996	63.932919554024	0.57871571938054	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-21 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	54.63	37.36	45.995	139.339992	0.0094	0.2294	2.29	2.5194	F	F	22.63	276.63	141	458.19736717918	63.845217477168	0.63108498619573	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-21 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	53.76	37.63	45.695	138.58899581862	0.0124	0.2324	2.29	2.5224	F	F	21.76	275.76	141	457.93062584628	63.464145590626	0.60229773254658	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-21 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	54.69	37.9	46.295	138.57695654707	0.011	0.241	2.29	2.531	F	F	22.69	272.69	141	457.9263455524	63.458039289373	0.63304551998637	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-21 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	54.58	38	46.29	138.33893883333	0.0259	0.2459	2.29	2.5359	F	F	22.58	276.58	141	457.84169679574	63.337334488375	0.62944859707319	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-20 23:59:55	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	55.01	37.84	46.425	137.47642123347	0.0294	0.1594	2.29	2.4494	F	F	23.01	284.01	141	457.53452145067	62.900208599807	0.64344209197701	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-20 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	55.22	38.01	46.615	137.40951965149	0.0193	0.1493	2.29	2.4393	F	F	23.22	285.22	141	457.51066711562	62.866321003791	0.65020795706964	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-20 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	55.03	37.95	46.49	137.45306369238	0.0731	0.2131	2.29	2.5031	F	F	23.03	285.03	141	457.52619357886	62.888377026927	0.64408844755047	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-20 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	54.44	37.48	45.96	137.45435866952	0.0397	0.1997	2.29	2.4897	F	F	22.44	283.44	141	457.52665530151	62.889032978679	0.62485432263372	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-20 08:00:14	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	54.28	37.14	45.71	137.88866656339	0.0381	0.2681	2.29	2.5581	F	F	22.28	280.28	141	457.68142166047	63.109080943597	0.61958199346599	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-20 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	54.05	36.95	45.5	138.15336204516	0.0233	0.2633	2.29	2.5533	F	F	22.05	279.05	141	457.7756626459	63.243246856982	0.61196418661158	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-20 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	51.93	37.15	44.54	137.71990416909	0.0639	0.2539	1.94	2.1939	F	F	19.93	269.93	141	457.62130317387	63.02356201884	0.54008122262584	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	52.21	37.18	44.695	138.27884701316	0.0888	0.4388	2.03	2.4688	F	F	20.21	281.21	141	457.82031761393	63.306865658851	0.54970428831196	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	55.41	37.58	46.495	137.65382759105	0.0409	0.3109	2.03	2.3409	F	F	23.41	285.41	141	457.59775759195	62.990082829614	0.65628871171528	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	53.97	37.7	45.835	137.89070254466	0.0603	0.3903	2.03	2.4203	F	F	21.97	283.97	141	457.68214678389	63.110112762181	0.60930421860843	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 08:00:02	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	51.11	36.88	43.995	138.23600072965	0.0788	0.4588	2.04	2.4988	F	F	19.11	275.11	141	457.80507197414	63.285142263454	0.5117848717526	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-19 03:59:53	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	52.81	35.03	43.92	138.44874826597	0.0344	0.3544	2.08	2.4344	F	F	20.81	280.81	141	457.88075584433	63.393017501725	0.57021992923259	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 23:59:53	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	56.31	34.62	45.465	139.41464691386	0.0131	0.2931	1.82	2.1131	F	F	24.31	286.31	141	458.22385556726	63.883117031417	0.68452415629756	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	57.56	35.2	46.38	138.55203469946	0.0085	0.4085	1.86	2.2685	F	F	25.56	287.56	141	457.91748473066	63.445399233893	0.72199238100826	90	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-05-18 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	57.62	37.92	47.77	137.58732579848	0.0085	0.2585	1.79	2.0485	F	F	25.62	291.62	141	457.57405649969	62.956390788555	0.7237349289236	90	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-05-18 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	58.78	38.28	48.53	138.22595776375	0	0.19	1.8	1.99	F	F	26.78	289.78	141	457.80149822836	63.280050558293	0.75633443635118	90	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-05-18 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	60.18	38.8	49.49	138.21892210996	0	0.14	1.93	2.07	F	F	28.18	299.18	141	457.79899456722	63.276483572103	0.7927421902393	90	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-05-18 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	54.79	38.81	46.8	138.42626253051	0.0002	0.2402	1.93	2.1702	F	F	22.79	288.79	141	457.87275858932	63.381614686055	0.63630535917279	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-18 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	58.24	38.56	48.4	140.10679642877	0.0018	0.1618	2	2.1618	F	F	26.24	280.24	141	458.46919885005	64.234650712145	0.74142145793107	90	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-05-17 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	56.99	35.43	46.21	140.9098563056	0.0022	0.1322	2.16	2.2922	F	F	24.99	295.99	141	458.75331604066	64.642863843006	0.70517634503488	90	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-05-17 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	57.06	35.43	46.245	140.65254158239	0.0022	0.0922	2.15	2.2422	F	F	25.06	295.06	141	458.66234290902	64.512024258289	0.70726650233658	90	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-05-17 11:59:57	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	57.7	37.01	47.355	139.75695639581	0.004	0.074	2.14	2.214	F	F	25.7	295.7	141	458.34524645733	64.056936623362	0.7260499674966	90	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-17 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	57.57	36.3	46.935	140.2055147084	0.0046	0.1046	2.12	2.2246	F	F	25.57	284.57	141	458.50415596401	64.284811182874	0.72228317728844	90	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-05-17 04:00:00	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	53.35	36.3	44.825	140.66574409406	0.0046	0.1046	2.14	2.2446	F	F	21.35	279.35	141	458.66701207919	64.51873654552	0.58852486989449	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-17 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	48.12	34.52	41.32	141.43863216806	0.0604	0.1704	2.14	2.3104	F	F	16.12	265.12	141	458.94007720985	64.911856767666	0.40916725113549	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-16 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	48.37	34.53	41.45	143.54089914502	0.1093	0.2293	2.09	2.3193	F	F	16.37	277.37	141	459.68011202428	65.982896599048	0.41760953947877	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-16 16:00:10	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	48.41	34.57	41.49	143.34369091879	0.1093	0.2193	2.04	2.2593	F	F	16.41	281.41	141	459.61085910973	65.882316931147	0.41896394398352	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-16 12:00:00	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	51.66	36.37	44.015	140.31911051681	0.1677	0.2277	2.04	2.2677	F	F	19.66	297.66	141	458.54437051244	64.342538202796	0.53077948362639	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-16 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	52.36	36.09	44.225	140.36356096098	0.017	0.087	2.01	2.097	F	F	20.36	290.36	141	458.56010345012	64.365129034892	0.55484787222643	90	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-16 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	52.43	36.09	44.26	140.32897986886	0.017	0.087	1.97	2.057	F	F	20.43	294.43	141	458.54786385706	64.347553956104	0.55724510907748	90	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-16 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	51.26	34.71	42.985	141.56886868384	0.0905	0.2605	1.94	2.2005	F	F	19.26	278.26	141	458.98603765424	64.978134092389	0.51696969204922	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	51.33	35.05	43.19	143.31400074005	0.221	0.381	1.97	2.351	F	F	19.33	299.33	141	459.60042991004	65.867176352252	0.51938834652297	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	51.39	35.04	43.215	143.43371954956	0.209	0.369	1.86	2.229	F	F	19.39	299.39	141	459.64247844865	65.928230346869	0.52146091437201	90	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-15 12:00:07	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	36.26	31.22	33.74	145.13371425696	0.0569	0.4569	2.03	2.4869	F	F	4.26	276.26	141	460.23818551495	66.796077306668	0.10412255674322	90	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-15 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	31.95	31.22	31.585	145.2274334815	0.0511	0.4511	2.14	2.5911	F	F	-0.050000000000001	263.95	141	460.27095157346	66.843969003102	0.051233133693803	90	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-15 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	234	-51	32.1	31.14	31.62	145.68435089582	0.0996	0.7196	2.11	2.8296	F	F	0.1	263.1	141	460.43058709814	67.077531213972	0.052620046799329	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L