MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, May 15, 2021

[ Friday, May 14, 2021 | Index | Today | Sunday, May 16, 2021 ]

DAY 227 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/16/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.80°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.83°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.81°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.799
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 275

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.71 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.71 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 145 in
SWE DAY: 134
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 66.44 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -58

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-16 04:00:07OBSERVATION2021227-5859.7999239.8349.81496145.48363291667001.711.71FF27.79992274.79992134456.65283989052 66.4355141289860.7989791292290192 4121123.5DRYL
2021-05-16 00:00:03FORECAST2021227-5745.9445.9445.94146.92379466667001.711.71FF13.94260.94135457.702344270367.2473652480220.34868764934333922121122.5DRYL
2021-05-15 12:00:03FORECAST2021227-5762.5847.7655.17147.301506666670.00410.00411.711.7141FF30.58277.58135457.8367837859667.4400480590930.86086550410488925121124DRYL
2021-05-15 08:00:03FORECAST2021227-5760.7242.9451.83147.012374666670.01240.01241.711.7224FF28.72275.72135457.7338842412367.29254528770.82107185464317924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-15 04:00:08FORECAST2021227-5760.3342.8451.585146.641810083330.00660.00661.711.7166FF28.33275.33135457.6018930140167.1035698891350.81190003547791924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-15 00:00:03FORECAST2021227-5862.4541.8552.15148.527426666670.00310.00311.711.7131FF30.45263.45134457.740644581567.9870400204320.85829674436395925121124DRYL
2021-05-14 20:00:03FORECAST2021227-5859.5142.1950.85149.688201333330.00520.01521.711.7252FF27.51273.51134458.1532772959468.5801400134010.79169286932744924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-14 16:00:03FORECAST2021227-5859.6340.2849.955149.731497333330.00140.01141.711.7214FF27.63273.63134458.1686446551768.6022771954020.79472738227092924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-14 12:00:06FORECAST2021227-5859.6242.6551.135148.37592800.011.711.72FF27.62273.62134457.6866999561667.9096888392520.79447551166864924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-14 08:00:06FORECAST2021227-5859.8743.6951.78147.9610626666700.011.711.72FF27.87274.87134457.5388712028267.6979375944770.80071720708462924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-14 03:55:12FORECAST2021227-5859.9643.8651.91147.4611416666700.011.711.72FF27.96274.96134457.3605275277467.4429055425090.80293603277075924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-14 00:00:06FORECAST2021227-5860.0543.9852.015149.467969333330.00060.00061.711.7106FF28.05264.05134458.0750826087568.4675523997290.80513987278739924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-13 20:00:04FORECAST2021227-5860.0443.7651.9150.597420.00020.01021.711.7202FF28.04273.04134458.4756381554769.0452482390680.80489574288614924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-13 15:54:43FORECAST2021227-5860.2843.9152.095150.4849160.00050.01051.711.7205FF28.28273.28134458.4357905343768.9876714299580.8107035736901924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-13 11:59:25FORECAST2021227-5860.3143.8252.065149.2137520.00240.01241.711.7224FF28.31273.31134457.9847668221168.3376254163710.81142201068128924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-13 08:00:06FORECAST2021227-5859.8443.5951.715149.023074666670.00240.01241.711.7224FF27.84272.84134457.9169866043368.2401972858720.79997427513235924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-13 04:00:07FORECAST2021227-5859.7843.6551.715148.809877250.00020.02021.711.7302FF27.78273.78134457.8411622731768.1312871578680.79848343519157924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-12 23:55:12FORECAST2021227-5859.9143.3451.625150.7233373333300.021.731.75FF27.91272.91134458.5202231226669.1096982638710.80170519944031924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-12 19:55:02FORECAST2021227-5861.6542.9652.305151.6522160.00020.01021.731.7402FF29.65273.65134458.8486814252669.5854193468190.84178664138509924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-12 15:59:26FORECAST2021227-5860.6842.4351.555151.9420040.00410.00411.731.7341FF28.68267.68134458.9509940913469.7339337800310.82014428914185924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-12 12:00:06FORECAST2021227-5855.8742.3849.125150.923181333330.00320.00321.731.7332FF23.87266.87134458.590954868169.2120058393840.68795734099602923121123DRYL
2021-05-12 08:00:06FORECAST2021227-5855.3942.1548.77150.848014666670.00360.00361.731.7336FF23.39262.39134458.5643549816569.1735225458820.67277213327409923121123DRYL
2021-05-12 04:00:08FORECAST2021227-5862.240.4251.31150.31657166667001.721.72FF30.2269.2134458.3761436391468.9015304456230.85326728393693925121124DRYL
2021-05-12 00:00:06FORECAST2021227-5862.3942.4352.41151.048460.00110.00111.741.7411FF30.39260.39134458.6352770425269.2761522989460.85710042622516925121124DRYL
2021-05-11 20:00:07FORECAST2021227-5861.4440.4250.93152.1432520.00150.00151.751.7515FF29.44271.44134459.0220024933569.8371001988910.83725206270847924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-11 16:00:06FORECAST2021227-5861.2941.751.495152.039440.00160.00161.731.7316FF29.29271.29134458.9853779701469.7838798347690.8339619666165924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-11 12:00:05FORECAST2021227-5862.4942.2652.375150.868261333330.00050.00051.751.7505FF30.49272.49134458.571520346669.1838879716740.85909052110128925121124DRYL
2021-05-11 08:00:06FORECAST2021227-5856.5841.7849.18151.2237040.0010.0011.751.751FF24.58257.58134458.6972527282669.3658975721910.70983975666702924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-11 04:00:07FORECAST2021227-5861.9442.4952.215151.254725333330.00040.00041.731.7304FF29.94272.94134458.708220663469.3817859245840.84791140647384924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-11 00:00:06FORECAST2021227-5858.4241.2349.825153.167561333330.00070.01071.751.7607FF26.42252.42134459.382858096370.3625520929470.76294352032119924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-10 20:00:06FORECAST2021227-5858.438.8348.615154.549626666670.00180.02181.761.7818FF26.4262.4134459.8682625441271.0724682920430.76239643532724924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-10 16:00:06FORECAST2021227-5858.5138.8448.675154.3914760.00260.02261.741.7626FF26.51263.51134459.8128036851870.9911774446530.76539682952834924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-10 12:00:06FORECAST2021227-5854.6340.2347.43154.184781333330.00050.00051.731.7305FF22.63258.63134459.7402882583770.8849558152410.64814219439714923121123DRYL
2021-05-10 07:54:56FORECAST2021227-5854.640.247.4153.921424833330.00050.00051.731.7305FF22.6262.6134459.6478387852870.7496502673920.64715624369527923121123DRYL
2021-05-10 03:55:13FORECAST2021227-5855.3940.0647.725153.916504833330.00050.00051.731.7305FF23.39260.39134459.6461110648770.7471228753390.67277213327409923121123DRYL
2021-05-10 00:00:06FORECAST2021227-5846.1835.1840.68153.5528520.07680.07681.611.6868FF14.18246.18134459.5183499660770.5603531836240.35657733193917922121122.5DRYL
2021-05-09 20:00:06FORECAST2021227-5848.2436.6642.45153.751182666670.02330.02331.641.6633FF16.24252.24134459.5880435354570.6622052330340.42650239304073922121122.5DRYL
2021-05-09 16:00:06FORECAST2021227-5847.9136.6742.29153.362338666670.02330.02331.631.6533FF15.91258.91134459.45137034670.4625366598680.41508051838383922121122.5DRYL
2021-05-09 12:00:07FORECAST2021227-5841.830.1135.955154.252871376460.16130.16131.631.7913FF9.8245.8134459.7641807360870.9199450345890.22501999435313921122124DRYL
2021-05-09 07:55:15FORECAST2021227-5841.7330.1135.92154.893232110110.16130.16131.631.7913FF9.73237.73134459.9886782687571.2491331111050.22316552492289921122124DRYL
2021-05-09 04:00:08FORECAST2021227-5839.7330.3335.03154.946841152380.16660.16661.621.7866FF7.73248.73134460.0074559567171.2767022070370.1739561708807921122124DRYL
2021-05-09 00:00:07FORECAST2021227-5854.438.4246.41150.650584427420.03430.03431.391.4243FF22.4261.4134458.4944644218969.0724590218930.64055826075112923121123DRYL
2021-05-08 20:00:06FORECAST2021227-5853.3838.3145.845150.8261680.02980.02981.491.5198FF21.38263.38134458.5566229578769.1623382517560.60629213082675923121123DRYL
2021-05-08 16:02:36FORECAST2021227-5861.0440.7650.9150.9848383945500.041.521.56FF29.04274.04134458.6127702010869.2435749944850.82838390950118924121123.5DRYL
2021-05-08 12:00:06FORECAST2021227-5841.0132.0336.52151.730880781130.1370.1371.521.657FF9.01258.01134458.8764622912669.6257297931830.20460185808565921122124DRYL
2021-05-08 08:02:35FORECAST2021227-5840.1635.5637.86152.551032814120.01660.02661.581.6066FF8.16239.16134459.1657727530570.0462128663710.18390988776059921121122DRYL
2021-05-08 04:00:08FORECAST2021227-5840.1637.8739.015152.7121379662100.011.61.61FF8.16250.16134459.2225321679970.1288546896310.18390988776059921121122DRYL