Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 12, 2021

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DAY 224 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/13/2021 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.20°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.87°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.54°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.686 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 22 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 214 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.24 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.24 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 155 in SWE DAY: 131 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.42 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 71.03 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -61 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-13 04:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	224	-61	54.19994	38.87006	46.535	154.93899458333	0	0	2.24	2.24	F	F	22.19994	214.19994	131	458.42370677624	71.027708221076	0.68583262205757	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-12 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	224	-60	53.06	40.81	46.935	156.93815466667	0.0183	0.0183	2.24	2.2583	F	F	21.06	213.06	132	459.656478415	72.137639503028	0.6483410451056	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	224	-60	49.78	40.98	45.38	156.73594266667	0.0193	0.0193	2.24	2.2593	F	F	17.78	209.78	132	459.58545574986	72.033559642843	0.53340638013799	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-12 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	224	-60	50.32	41.26	45.79	156.421581	0.0072	0.0072	2.24	2.2472	F	F	18.32	210.32	132	459.47497043738	71.871801305744	0.55279781744667	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-12 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	50.5	41.08	45.79	157.28658266667	0.0271	0.0271	2.24	2.2671	F	F	18.5	199.5	131	459.25291162247	72.234321048816	0.5592359975222	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-11 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	50.5	41.26	45.88	158.34830133333	0.0254	0.0354	2.24	2.2754	F	F	18.5	209.5	131	459.62630658946	72.781044896555	0.5592359975222	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-11 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	51.21	41.19	46.2	158.317196	0.0108	0.0208	2.24	2.2608	F	F	19.21	210.21	131	459.6153814926	72.765018436378	0.58446288112253	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-11 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	51.14	41.31	46.225	157.27207866667	0.0259	0.0359	2.24	2.2759	F	F	19.14	210.14	131	459.24780374747	72.226856718466	0.58198937528776	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-11 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	51.41	41.81	46.61	157.16974266667	0.0275	0.0375	2.24	2.2775	F	F	19.41	208.41	131	459.21175872068	72.174193947637	0.59151130461569	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-11 04:00:07	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	52.04	41.52	46.78	157.50820933333	0.0154	0.0154	2.24	2.2554	F	F	20.04	211.04	131	459.33093850429	72.34839361521	0.61351107930296	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-11 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	52.15	41.95	47.05	158.940744	0.0268	0.0368	2.24	2.2768	F	F	20.15	196.15	131	459.83422497054	73.086393833481	0.61731733914404	95	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-10 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	51.95	41.88	46.915	159.95965866667	0.0295	0.0495	2.24	2.2895	F	F	19.95	206.95	131	460.19108318669	73.612008587986	0.61038870683482	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-10 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	51.59	41.7	46.645	159.94079866667	0.0191	0.0291	2.24	2.2691	F	F	19.59	207.59	131	460.18448616564	73.602274251342	0.59782974765287	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-10 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	51.94	41.14	46.54	159.352804	0.0067	0.0167	2.24	2.2567	F	F	19.94	206.94	131	459.97865348905	73.298888213625	0.61004133235841	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-10 07:54:56	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	52.67	41.06	46.865	159.23956216667	0.0066	0.0166	2.24	2.2566	F	F	20.67	208.67	131	459.93897687917	73.240481301623	0.63515197044917	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-10 03:55:13	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	52.31	41.07	46.69	159.3269195	0.007	0.017	2.24	2.257	F	F	20.31	208.31	131	459.96958532721	73.285537093878	0.62283346297904	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-10 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	51.12	40.86	45.99	158.33946533333	0.0126	0.0126	2.13	2.1426	F	F	19.12	200.12	131	459.62320321729	72.77649225222	0.581282058817	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-09 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	54.03	41.58	47.805	158.287532	0.0231	0.0231	2.15	2.1731	F	F	22.03	206.03	131	459.60496182975	72.749735102986	0.68035187983309	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-09 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	54.41	42.14	48.275	158.04568666667	0.0069	0.0069	2.15	2.1569	F	F	22.41	212.41	131	459.51998286729	72.625151229316	0.6925510022844	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-09 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	49.11	41.71	45.41	157.93979733333	0.0018	0.0118	2.15	2.1618	F	F	17.11	206.11	131	459.4827593236	72.57061388573	0.50924109384662	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-09 07:55:15	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	48.24	41.42	44.83	158.53638030467	0.0034	0.0134	2.15	2.1634	F	F	16.24	202.24	131	459.69234700378	72.877960747737	0.47782480160852	95	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	53.92	40.88	47.4	158.39199088521	0.0018	0.0018	2.15	2.1518	F	F	21.92	212.92	131	459.64165017198	72.803556064504	0.67678306722819	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-09 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	56.51	41.68	49.095	155.88628442742	0.0007	0.0007	1.92	1.9207	F	F	24.51	208.51	131	458.75889952737	71.514220295333	0.75593137644599	95	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-08 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	56.03	40.53	48.28	155.79465733333	0.0013	0.0113	2.01	2.0213	F	F	24.03	213.03	131	458.72651305827	71.467139911628	0.74209003064021	95	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-08 16:02:36	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	56.14	40.79	48.465	155.98754906121	0.0015	0.0015	2.05	2.0515	F	F	24.14	216.14	131	458.79468370947	71.566258234156	0.74529752584812	95	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-08 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	55.09	39.69	47.39	156.25416478113	0.0008	0.0008	2.05	2.0508	F	F	23.09	215.09	131	458.88885448615	71.703294685104	0.71385214567057	95	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-08 08:02:35	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	49.59	39.72	44.655	156.72483281412	0.0013	0.0113	2.1	2.1113	F	F	17.59	198.59	131	459.05494256763	71.945309126407	0.52656215438312	95	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-08 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	49.61	39.72	44.665	156.81683929955	0.0013	0.0013	2.13	2.1313	F	F	17.61	209.61	131	459.0873863767	71.992632893883	0.52728300388188	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-07 23:55:02	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	54.75	38.7	46.725	156.52728537092	0.0017	0.0017	1.61	1.6117	F	F	22.75	214.75	131	458.98525673126	71.84371626142	0.70328901622815	95	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-07 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	55.18	36.87	46.025	155.6727645143	0.0021	0.0021	1.67	1.6721	F	F	23.18	218.18	131	458.68341719562	71.404515591709	0.71661810303912	95	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-07 15:55:18	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	54.96	36.87	45.915	155.66916308967	0.0022	0.0022	1.72	1.7222	F	F	22.96	216.96	131	458.68214368959	71.402665432335	0.70983440631706	95	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-07 12:00:07	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	50.23	39.38	44.805	157.43630142221	0	0.01	1.7	1.71	F	F	18.23	206.23	131	459.30562709498	72.311379152243	0.54957339377008	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-07 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	44.69	39.25	41.97	158.59414462831	0.0014	0.0114	1.86	1.8714	F	F	12.69	199.69	131	459.7126235341	72.907730304227	0.35305988825779	95	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-07 03:55:07	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	44.69	39.25	41.97	159.08220885536	0.0014	0.0014	1.96	1.9614	F	F	12.69	200.69	131	459.88382595411	73.159334849632	0.35305988825779	95	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-07 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	47.56	38.9	43.23	162.45562932783	0.0119	0.0219	1.88	1.9019	F	F	15.56	183.56	131	461.06136382124	74.902014018329	0.45335531217902	95	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2021-05-06 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	51.1	39.24	45.17	162.37663233252	0.0002	0.0102	2.15	2.1602	F	F	19.1	204.1	131	461.03390407	74.861132733999	0.58057447951693	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-06 16:02:33	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	48.24	37.89	43.065	162.24739543517	0.0061	0.0161	2.08	2.0961	F	F	16.24	204.24	131	460.98896879518	74.794259511365	0.47782480160852	95	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-06 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	55.1	40.95	48.025	161.2748549057	0.0018	0.0118	2	2.0118	F	F	23.1	211.1	131	460.65034584719	74.291317688766	0.71416010593894	95	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-05-06 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	53.01	39.51	46.26	161.43767955723	0.0059	0.0059	2.03	2.0359	F	F	21.01	202.01	131	460.7070970838	74.375484708758	0.64665968530225	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-06 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	53.03	39.51	46.27	161.17190219042	0.0059	0.0059	2	2.0059	F	F	21.03	210.03	131	460.61445038366	74.238107144728	0.64733257476382	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-06 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	49.79	38.12	43.955	162.27651495029	0.0069	0.0069	1.97	1.9769	F	F	17.79	198.79	131	460.99909484912	74.809326507353	0.53376634688003	95	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-05 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	49.76	40.81	45.285	163.37493278921	0.0633	0.0633	1.93	1.9933	F	F	17.76	208.76	131	461.38051349307	75.378010382182	0.5326863649664	95	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2021-05-05 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	48.33	40.81	44.57	163.70556665246	0.0607	0.0607	1.96	2.0207	F	F	16.33	207.33	131	461.49511579594	75.549319438716	0.48107170682882	95	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-05 11:55:11	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	40.9	37.48	39.19	162.90006460787	0.006	0.016	1.91	1.926	F	F	8.9	195.9	131	461.21574909541	75.13207532581	0.23567174356844	95	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	DRY	L
2021-05-05 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	39.45	37.52	38.485	162.98620613317	0	0.01	1.85	1.86	F	F	7.45	189.45	131	461.24565226612	75.176678958274	0.19720801275138	95	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	DRY	L
2021-05-05 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	224	-61	38.03	36.28	37.155	163.10708664913	0	0.01	1.84	1.85	F	F	6.03	195.03	131	461.28760369956	75.239277146793	0.16347137178576	95	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	DRY	L