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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, May 10, 2021

[ Sunday, May 9, 2021 | Index | Today | Tuesday, May 11, 2021 ]

DAY 222 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/05/2021 12:00:06 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.85°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.99°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.92°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.507
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 183

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.18 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.21 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.39 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 165 in
SWE DAY: 129
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 460.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 75.88 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -63

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-05 11:55:11FORECAST2021222-6347.8531.9939.92164.671920607870.01020.18022.212.3902FF15.85182.85129460.7914409773175.8794115854030.50706215816899873112125DRYL
2021-05-05 08:00:06FORECAST2021222-6347.883239.94164.598544799830.010.222.112.33FF15.88177.88129460.7658850495875.8413941725680.50817178119696873112125DRYL
2021-05-05 04:00:09FORECAST2021222-6348.0932.0640.075164.53492531580.00750.22752.092.3175FF16.09186.09129460.7437232788775.808434099410.51593689136085873112125DRYL
2021-05-05 00:00:07FORECAST2021222-6341.9231.9336.925164.483684349970.04310.30311.852.1531FF9.92171.92129460.7258709461175.7818887285670.29729455788063872112124DRYL
2021-05-04 20:00:06FORECAST2021222-6342.231.6736.935166.225125273280.04440.30441.92.2044FF10.2184.2129461.3312878314576.6848511122670.30634712580572872112124DRYL
2021-05-04 16:00:06FORECAST2021222-6342.231.6836.94167.056683674910.04440.31442.012.3244FF10.2182.2129461.6194381591877.1166124587490.30634712580572872112124DRYL
2021-05-04 12:00:06FORECAST2021222-6345.583238.79166.831043857730.0080.1582.152.308FF13.58185.58129461.5413099572176.9994185236230.42355953778561872112124DRYL
2021-05-04 08:00:07FORECAST2021222-6345.5931.9638.775167.253927673850.0080.1382.232.368FF13.59178.59129461.6876975871877.2190807801540.42392270066536872112124DRYL
2021-05-04 04:00:08FORECAST2021222-6342.6831.9237.3168.229275131570.01180.13182.332.4618FF10.68184.68129462.0247299158977.7260854066070.32214164128309872112124DRYL
2021-05-04 00:00:06FORECAST2021222-6347.8732.3640.115168.714319530120.01280.12282.062.1828FF15.87187.87129462.192026906977.9784133118460.5078019134563873112125DRYL
2021-05-03 20:00:06FORECAST2021222-6347.932.3640.13168.686390534940.01210.13212.322.4521FF15.9193.9129462.1823994896177.9638807386810.50891149528266873112125DRYL
2021-05-03 16:00:06FORECAST2021222-6346.3231.6738.995169.729289939680.00820.16822.392.5582FF14.32191.32129462.5414348478678.5068293044060.45058843030415872112124DRYL
2021-05-03 12:00:06FORECAST2021222-6337.7531.5834.665170.081659913210.0020.0622.462.522FF5.75182.75129462.6625292356578.6904109520430.17905153086384871111121.5DRYL
2021-05-03 08:00:07FORECAST2021222-6333.630.9232.26169.560475620790.03650.23652.212.4465FF1.6174.6129462.4833822240978.4189022566310.096074646361911871112123DRYL
2021-05-03 04:00:13FORECAST2021222-6333.6531.232.425170.106430503590.02310.22312.142.3631FF1.65167.65129462.6710377444478.7033187280990.09686864589453871112123DRYL