Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, May 9, 2021
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Monday, May 10, 2021 ]
DAY 221
OF WATER YEAR 2021,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/10/2021 08:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
DRY
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.96°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.27°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.12°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.205
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 174
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.11 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.17 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.54 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.71 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 163 in
SWE DAY: 128
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.72 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 74.98 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -64
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2021-05-10 07:54:56 | OBSERVATION | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.96006 | 27.26996 | 33.11501 | 163.1000675 | 0.11000000000001 | 1.17 | 1.54 | 2.71 | F | F | 6.96006 | 173.96006 | 128 | 459.7188479191 | 74.980175126628 | 0.20531350471373 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-10 03:55:13 | OBSERVATION | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.96006 | 27.26996 | 33.11501 | 163.1000675 | 0.11000000000001 | 1.17 | 1.54 | 2.71 | F | F | 6.96006 | 173.96006 | 128 | 459.7188479191 | 74.980175126628 | 0.20531350471373 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-10 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -63 | 31.6 | 31.6 | 31.6 | 162 | 0 | 1.06 | 1.54 | 2.6 | F | F | -0.4 | 166.6 | 129 | 459.85776459205 | 74.496957863912 | 0.067013329760315 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-09 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -63 | 40.49 | 30.42 | 35.455 | 161.720544 | 0.018 | 1.078 | 1.54 | 2.618 | F | F | 8.49 | 175.49 | 129 | 459.7597449115 | 74.352596056389 | 0.24746122846527 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-09 07:55:15 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -63 | 36.06 | 30.62 | 33.34 | 162.368185638 | 0.0199 | 1.0799 | 1.54 | 2.6199 | F | F | 4.06 | 171.06 | 129 | 459.98680017418 | 74.687222161712 | 0.13811700357814 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-09 04:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -63 | 40.58 | 30.22 | 35.4 | 162.34597621855 | 0.023 | 1.083 | 1.54 | 2.623 | F | F | 8.58 | 175.58 | 129 | 459.97902000559 | 74.675743042858 | 0.2500766150663 | 91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-09 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 39.37 | 30.52 | 34.945 | 159.79680976075 | 0.0647 | 0.8547 | 1.54 | 2.3947 | F | F | 7.37 | 173.37 | 128 | 458.55459272015 | 73.275561017821 | 0.21616874157093 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-08 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 39.09 | 30.71 | 34.9 | 159.77641333333 | 0.0788 | 0.9388 | 1.54 | 2.4788 | F | F | 7.09 | 177.09 | 128 | 458.547373476 | 73.265054677415 | 0.20871884350305 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-08 16:02:33 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.28 | 29.86 | 34.07 | 160.00215972788 | 0.1189 | 0.9789 | 1.54 | 2.5189 | F | F | 6.28 | 176.28 | 128 | 458.62725478864 | 73.381351276252 | 0.18803528657218 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-08 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.5 | 29.83 | 34.165 | 160.1018234478 | 0.1162 | 0.9762 | 1.54 | 2.5162 | F | F | 6.5 | 176.5 | 128 | 458.6625066438 | 73.432703660811 | 0.19352422034944 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-08 08:02:35 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.38 | 29.92 | 34.15 | 160.32075148079 | 0.1225 | 1.0325 | 1.54 | 2.5725 | F | F | 6.38 | 172.38 | 128 | 458.73991191612 | 73.545527412621 | 0.19051826790133 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-08 04:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.32 | 29.78 | 34.05 | 160.53778063288 | 0.1268 | 1.0568 | 1.54 | 2.5968 | F | F | 6.32 | 176.32 | 128 | 458.81660333759 | 73.657399217333 | 0.18902607790718 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-07 23:55:02 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.82 | 30.69 | 34.755 | 160.18093203759 | 0.0714 | 0.5414 | 1.54 | 2.0814 | F | F | 6.82 | 178.82 | 128 | 458.69048163275 | 73.473468864704 | 0.20168008715619 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-07 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 39.01 | 30.61 | 34.81 | 159.36844984764 | 0.0749 | 0.6049 | 1.54 | 2.1449 | F | F | 7.01 | 179.01 | 128 | 458.40289764455 | 73.054959203277 | 0.20661836838939 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-07 15:55:18 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 39.25 | 30.24 | 34.745 | 159.53841508967 | 0.0931 | 0.6531 | 1.54 | 2.1931 | F | F | 7.25 | 177.25 | 128 | 458.4631071803 | 73.142477496631 | 0.2129572773823 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-07 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 37.98 | 29.54 | 33.76 | 160.93392942221 | 0.0756 | 0.6256 | 1.54 | 2.1656 | F | F | 5.98 | 175.98 | 128 | 458.95648115878 | 73.861669946673 | 0.18070669851386 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-07 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.58 | 30.17 | 34.375 | 161.96330596164 | 0.0619 | 0.7919 | 1.54 | 2.3319 | F | F | 6.58 | 175.58 | 128 | 459.31929065271 | 74.39287080607 | 0.19554413276779 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-07 03:55:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.63 | 30.19 | 34.41 | 162.45825818869 | 0.0625 | 0.8925 | 1.54 | 2.4325 | F | F | 6.63 | 175.63 | 128 | 459.49340189533 | 74.648497721111 | 0.19681304068164 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-07 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 37.99 | 30.38 | 34.185 | 165.94057466117 | 0.0591 | 0.9491 | 1.4 | 2.3491 | F | F | 5.99 | 152.99 | 128 | 460.71222163197 | 76.450850811033 | 0.18094806854729 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-06 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.4 | 30.3 | 34.35 | 166.04793633252 | 0.0969 | 1.0069 | 1.61 | 2.6169 | F | F | 6.4 | 170.4 | 128 | 460.74962745278 | 76.506524804511 | 0.19101726384578 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-06 16:02:33 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.61 | 30.35 | 34.48 | 165.56877810184 | 0.0734 | 0.9434 | 1.61 | 2.5534 | F | F | 6.61 | 171.61 | 128 | 460.58260534147 | 76.258099181349 | 0.19630488158221 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-06 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38 | 29.56 | 33.78 | 165.45067757237 | 0.0562 | 0.8562 | 1.61 | 2.4662 | F | F | 6 | 171 | 128 | 460.54140732976 | 76.196887892841 | 0.18118964004572 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-06 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 35.86 | 29.03 | 32.445 | 165.34891555723 | 0.0547 | 0.8647 | 1.64 | 2.5047 | F | F | 3.86 | 167.86 | 128 | 460.50589890748 | 76.144150992061 | 0.13410986674306 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-06 04:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.88 | 29.54 | 34.21 | 165.25943819042 | 0.0372 | 0.8272 | 1.64 | 2.4672 | F | F | 6.88 | 169.88 | 128 | 460.47466945637 | 76.097785175276 | 0.20323187008017 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-06 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.98 | 30.07 | 34.525 | 165.71449742907 | 0.1392 | 0.8792 | 1.56 | 2.4392 | F | F | 6.98 | 166.98 | 128 | 460.63342082465 | 76.333635830991 | 0.2058339226604 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-05 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.98 | 30.81 | 34.895 | 166.83939079298 | 0.1355 | 0.8755 | 1.52 | 2.3955 | F | F | 6.98 | 174.98 | 128 | 461.02506312287 | 76.917140671713 | 0.2058339226604 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-05 16:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.99 | 30.21 | 34.6 | 166.82946218455 | 0.1453 | 0.8953 | 1.53 | 2.4253 | F | F | 6.99 | 174.99 | 128 | 461.02161127611 | 76.911987464649 | 0.20609520842187 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-05 11:55:11 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.02 | 30.42 | 34.22 | 165.44540881021 | 0.1173 | 0.8173 | 1.56 | 2.3773 | F | F | 6.02 | 171.02 | 128 | 460.53956909469 | 76.19415728215 | 0.18167338729911 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-05 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 32.32 | 29.93 | 31.125 | 165.37166943981 | 0.1349 | 0.7649 | 1.56 | 2.3249 | F | F | 0.32 | 166.32 | 128 | 460.5138393511 | 76.155942413629 | 0.076037968056559 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-05 04:00:09 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 36.98 | 29.86 | 33.42 | 165.31219510248 | 0.1644 | 0.7644 | 1.55 | 2.3144 | F | F | 4.98 | 173.98 | 128 | 460.49308356821 | 76.125122474169 | 0.15759142825666 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-05 00:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.05 | 29.71 | 33.88 | 164.88217579395 | 0.154 | 0.634 | 1.48 | 2.114 | F | F | 6.05 | 166.05 | 128 | 460.34291900152 | 75.902342096309 | 0.18240051829166 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-04 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 39.52 | 29.69 | 34.605 | 166.58902907411 | 0.1397 | 0.7197 | 1.44 | 2.1597 | F | F | 7.52 | 177.52 | 128 | 460.93799410045 | 76.787212900561 | 0.22022216944485 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-04 16:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 39.55 | 29.69 | 34.62 | 167.41961247233 | 0.1397 | 0.8397 | 1.44 | 2.2797 | F | F | 7.55 | 175.55 | 128 | 461.22663577779 | 77.218384623833 | 0.22103804416731 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-04 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 39.88 | 30.04 | 34.96 | 167.46710567979 | 0.0499 | 0.8799 | 1.42 | 2.2999 | F | F | 7.88 | 175.88 | 128 | 461.24312206674 | 77.243050667229 | 0.23012587316361 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-04 08:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 39.89 | 30.08 | 34.985 | 167.89104752609 | 0.0499 | 0.9299 | 1.43 | 2.3599 | F | F | 7.89 | 168.89 | 128 | 461.39019667227 | 77.463283437575 | 0.23040448098695 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-04 04:00:08 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 39.5 | 30.86 | 35.18 | 168.70930313157 | 0.0413 | 0.9813 | 1.47 | 2.4513 | F | F | 7.5 | 177.5 | 128 | 461.67361981719 | 77.888634673585 | 0.21967921194867 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-04 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 42.03 | 29.84 | 35.935 | 169.62364486346 | 0.0137 | 0.8037 | 1.37 | 2.1737 | F | F | 10.03 | 176.03 | 128 | 461.98962868077 | 78.364364705948 | 0.29414740638418 | 91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-03 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 42.06 | 29.85 | 35.955 | 169.47872920161 | 0.0137 | 0.8437 | 1.6 | 2.4437 | F | F | 10.06 | 182.06 | 128 | 461.9395927974 | 78.288935155212 | 0.29509581191268 | 91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-03 16:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 41.59 | 30.88 | 36.235 | 170.18881793968 | 0.0467 | 0.8867 | 1.66 | 2.5467 | F | F | 9.59 | 180.59 | 128 | 462.18459342941 | 78.658649625681 | 0.28040198391307 | 91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-03 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 42.61 | 29.71 | 36.16 | 170.19830311196 | 0.0154 | 0.7854 | 1.73 | 2.5154 | F | F | 10.61 | 180.61 | 128 | 462.18786309141 | 78.663590017101 | 0.31272680365072 | 91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-03 08:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 40.28 | 30.83 | 35.555 | 169.44026194246 | 0.1589 | 0.7589 | 1.65 | 2.4089 | F | F | 8.28 | 177.28 | 128 | 461.92630788689 | 78.268914606467 | 0.24141585587035 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-03 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 40.3 | 30.83 | 35.565 | 170.07273135833 | 0.1589 | 0.7589 | 1.58 | 2.3389 | F | F | 8.3 | 170.3 | 128 | 462.14457049565 | 78.598189386618 | 0.24198813324828 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-03 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.99 | 27.99 | 33.49 | 175.95517056169 | 0.038 | 1.088 | 1.62 | 2.708 | F | F | 6.99 | 162.99 | 128 | 464.15786787844 | 81.670976810101 | 0.20609520842187 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-02 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 38.63 | 29.9 | 34.265 | 175.46831308347 | 0.0484 | 1.0284 | 1.61 | 2.6384 | F | F | 6.63 | 174.63 | 128 | 463.99237764821 | 81.415959789519 | 0.19681304068164 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-02 16:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 41.6 | 30.24 | 35.92 | 172.78033395673 | 0.0424 | 1.0224 | 1.63 | 2.6524 | F | F | 9.6 | 195.6 | 128 | 463.07499965758 | 80.010253087847 | 0.28071089967772 | 91 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-02 12:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 33.37 | 31.84 | 32.605 | 173.30343610237 | 0.0403 | 0.9603 | 1.68 | 2.6403 | F | F | 1.37 | 178.37 | 128 | 463.25401990827 | 80.283513438336 | 0.09081178585783 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-02 08:00:07 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 33 | 31.83 | 32.415 | 173.77001952115 | 0.0288 | 0.9488 | 1.75 | 2.6988 | F | F | 1 | 174 | 128 | 463.41349728709 | 80.527372469942 | 0.085380911931828 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |
| 2021-05-02 04:02:32 | FORECAST | 2021 | 221 | -64 | 29.75 | 29.46 | 29.605 | 173.70038309573 | 0.0345 | 0.9645 | 1.78 | 2.7445 | F | F | -2.25 | 180.75 | 128 | 463.38970767858 | 80.490969746388 | 0.047603998456309 | 91 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4.5 | DRY | L |