MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, May 7, 2021

[ Thursday, May 6, 2021 | Index | Today | Saturday, May 8, 2021 ]

DAY 219 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/05/2021 12:00:06 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.44°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.55°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.041
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 203

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.65 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.82 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.39 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.21 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 165 in
SWE DAY: 126
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 75.75 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -66

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-05 11:55:11FORECAST2021219-6629.4423.6526.545164.921950910840.65450.82451.392.2145FF-2.56203.44126459.3075049945975.7498897916980.041491080917482941123126DRYL
2021-05-05 08:00:06FORECAST2021219-6629.9623.5526.755164.384509771220.54960.71961.392.1096FF-2.04202.96126459.1181831188175.4719174590380.046093593656557941123126DRYL
2021-05-05 04:00:09FORECAST2021219-6630.2124.127.155164.429696034780.54050.70051.392.0905FF-1.79205.21126459.1341106254375.495282249340.048447409575607941123126DRYL
2021-05-05 00:00:06FORECAST2021219-6630.0124.1827.095163.965128662570.37090.59091.261.8509FF-1.99201.01126458.9702700727975.2551193847780.046556883835056941123126DRYL
2021-05-04 20:00:06FORECAST2021219-6630.2323.7326.98165.643169772280.46340.63341.271.9034FF-1.77208.23126459.5611596137176.1231671826370.048639780333794941123126DRYL
2021-05-04 16:00:06FORECAST2021219-6629.7823.5426.66166.407933957760.56930.73931.272.0093FF-2.22205.78126459.8296221250476.5192973904050.044456235814399941123126DRYL
2021-05-04 12:00:04FORECAST2021219-6632.4222.2427.33167.034894944660.72550.87551.272.1455FF0.42207.42126460.0493215855676.8442901004040.073642993613432941123126DRYL
2021-05-04 08:00:07FORECAST2021219-6631.1823.4927.335167.524499725950.79750.94751.282.2275FF-0.82202.18126460.2206456067277.0982334188190.058499376545575941123126DRYL
2021-05-04 04:00:08FORECAST2021219-6630.7623.0726.915168.544634935780.86111.03111.32.3311FF-1.24206.76126460.5769307693977.627770656370.053962939591152941124128DRYL
2021-05-04 00:00:06FORECAST2021219-6629.5824.1626.87169.4898776010.6920.9121.152.062FF-2.42200.58126460.9062364982978.1189416096330.042692084702743941123126DRYL
2021-05-03 20:00:06FORECAST2021219-6629.7124.6127.16169.287774318570.7180.9281.392.318FF-2.29206.71126460.8358937461278.0138827783890.043832239073233941123126DRYL
2021-05-03 16:00:04FORECAST2021219-6629.7424.6127.175169.81368401280.72731.01731.372.3873FF-2.26205.74126461.0188632018678.2873115597010.044098798434403941124128DRYL
2021-05-03 12:00:06FORECAST2021219-6628.9824.126.54170.389506056210.72521.08521.372.4552FF-3.02204.98126461.2189175744178.5868635492830.037735871881426941124128DRYL
2021-05-03 08:00:07FORECAST2021219-6630.3823.9527.165169.247362663930.56470.83471.382.2147FF-1.62203.38126460.8218239962377.9928783693440.050102029583713941123126DRYL
2021-05-03 04:00:13FORECAST2021219-6630.3523.9427.145169.865362275780.56470.82471.322.1447FF-1.65196.35126461.0368294223278.3141880522980.049806818534833941113124.5DRYL
2021-05-03 00:00:05FORECAST2021219-6629.0823.1226.1174.482856753910.81151.14151.292.4315FF-2.92191.08126462.6326438591780.7214653281620.038527774487437941114126DRYL
2021-05-02 20:00:06FORECAST2021219-6628.722.7325.715174.005391541040.7521.0721.292.362FF-3.3203.7126462.4684972831980.4720119451590.035588794898038941124128DRYL
2021-05-02 16:00:07FORECAST2021219-6634.9127.1931.05171.666188561890.7521.0921.292.382FF2.91216.91126461.6614255109679.2516573235150.11279271395734941124128DRYL
2021-05-02 12:00:07FORECAST2021219-6633.5627.8430.7172.31375541170.74281.13281.292.4228FF1.56208.56126461.885329224579.5891956482450.090045376323564941124128DRYL
2021-05-02 08:00:07FORECAST2021219-6634.2627.8831.07172.852113281780.74281.19281.32.4928FF2.26205.26126462.0711925219979.8699821140570.10137582074759941124128DRYL
2021-05-02 04:02:32FORECAST2021219-6634.4528.6331.54172.212065946870.70171.17171.312.4817FF2.45216.45126461.8501932889879.5361759442580.10462264338541941124128DRYL
2021-05-02 00:00:07FORECAST2021219-6636.0428.0232.03172.252530129320.80881.16881.332.4988FF4.04222.04126461.8641756366979.557272829510.134761915542941124128DRYL
2021-05-01 20:00:07FORECAST2021219-6632.5529.2130.88172.6673101970.78841.14841.352.4984FF0.55231.55126462.0074195357879.7735784223010.075389509318435941124128DRYL
2021-05-01 16:00:06FORECAST2021219-6632.6329.2730.95172.855038323410.78841.14841.412.5584FF0.63233.63126462.0722016727379.8715081283210.076479819795274941124128DRYL
2021-05-01 12:02:24FORECAST2021219-6641.2229.4635.34169.751283268120.25990.50991.471.9799FF9.22235.22126460.9971661108678.2548605302880.27058027661139942123127.5DRYL
2021-05-01 08:00:06FORECAST2021219-6640.3428.4434.39169.94464356380.24540.42541.491.9154FF8.34226.34126461.0643873961478.3554229760.24358983942364941122124DRYL
2021-05-01 04:00:08FORECAST2021219-6640.4128.3934.4169.660224803080.24540.42541.471.8954FF8.41232.41126460.9654983975678.2075100845940.24568232518918941122124DRYL
2021-05-01 00:00:06FORECAST2021219-6648.8232.0340.425167.22919443020.58430.67431.352.0243FF16.82257.82126460.1173369630676.94505160370.54461726303566943123129DRYL
2021-04-30 20:00:08FORECAST2021219-6648.936.3942.645166.982991207010.36470.46471.542.0047FF16.9262.9126460.0311467753176.8173769369310.54763358718106943122126DRYL
2021-04-30 16:00:07FORECAST2021219-6650.4341.9346.18167.300994679490.16390.27391.561.8339FF18.43263.43126460.1424624589676.9822916636550.60459535785829943122126DRYL
2021-04-30 12:00:06FORECAST2021219-6634.8331.9633.395169.258697414240.15930.35931.61.9593FF2.83227.83126460.8257704565477.9987696423880.11134013648542941122124DRYL
2021-04-30 07:55:34FORECAST2021219-6633.4831.9132.695169.363036565560.14140.34141.651.9914FF1.48223.48126460.8620932534678.0530035513670.088812697409465941122124DRYL
2021-04-30 04:00:10FORECAST2021219-6633.4731.5232.495169.069960051760.16880.36881.662.0288FF1.47227.47126460.7600422904877.9006819434980.088659497360289941122124DRYL