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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 6, 2021

[ Wednesday, May 5, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, May 7, 2021 ]

DAY 218 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/05/2021 12:00:06 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.01°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.37°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.581
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 225

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.17 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.30 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.26 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.56 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 162 in
SWE DAY: 125
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.62 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 73.98 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -67

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-05 11:55:10FORECAST2021218-6748.7230.0139.365161.66013789050.170.31.261.56FF16.72224.72125457.6224525640473.9793087832890.58056143826519933122126DRYL
2021-05-05 08:00:06FORECAST2021218-6748.8630.6239.74161.451776378950.17350.30351.261.5635FF16.86223.86125457.5481926729673.871968486030.58556560475205933122126DRYL
2021-05-05 04:00:09FORECAST2021218-6749.3330.7340.03161.672297335350.1610.2911.261.551FF17.33226.33125457.6267849677773.9855736479280.60225956103203933122126DRYL
2021-05-05 00:00:06FORECAST2021218-6749.0830.4639.77162.098956878720.20540.21541.261.4754FF17.08222.08125457.7787188472974.2054528064240.59340101624281933122126DRYL
2021-05-04 20:00:05FORECAST2021218-6749.5429.7439.64163.239228762590.17050.18051.261.4405FF17.54228.54125458.1839636580174.7935968589190.60966041745025933122126DRYL
2021-05-04 16:00:06FORECAST2021218-6747.8629.8338.845163.357966712990.16870.17871.261.4387FF15.86226.86125458.2260948777374.8548831540590.54956503157937933122126DRYL
2021-05-04 12:00:03FORECAST2021218-6747.3328.8838.105162.829418516740.15210.16211.261.4221FF15.33226.33125458.0384549993274.5821352858430.5302983046189933122126DRYL
2021-05-04 08:00:06FORECAST2021218-6746.9428.7537.845163.055964638730.1480.1681.261.428FF14.94221.94125458.1189119787574.6990211119410.51607287271829933122126DRYL
2021-05-04 04:00:08FORECAST2021218-6746.7628.5337.645163.544615955540.1690.2091.261.469FF14.76226.76125458.2922970562674.9512377174470.50949927963651933122126DRYL
2021-05-04 00:00:06FORECAST2021218-6746.2628.0837.17165.486771668510.22170.26171.111.3717FF14.26222.26125458.9792964935575.9550020394020.49123131159423932122125DRYL
2021-05-03 20:00:06FORECAST2021218-6747.5329.3838.455165.241905744180.20710.26711.331.5971FF15.53227.53125458.8928665743475.8283318051540.53757957008914933122126DRYL
2021-05-03 16:00:03FORECAST2021218-6747.1429.2538.195165.663846687580.29060.33061.331.6606FF15.14227.14125459.0417648852876.046624561150.5233716671944933122126DRYL
2021-05-03 12:00:05FORECAST2021218-6747.2328.1837.705166.177429511510.35530.39531.331.7253FF15.23227.23125459.2227874071176.3124623844210.52665371516574933122126DRYL
2021-05-03 08:00:07FORECAST2021218-6747.3428.0637.7165.927600325680.2730.3131.341.653FF15.34224.34125459.1347596179476.1831288895120.53066262906198933122126DRYL
2021-05-03 04:00:13FORECAST2021218-6746.4228.0437.23166.497419837890.25640.28641.291.5764FF14.42217.42125459.3354550451276.4781681050740.49707689463258932122125DRYL
2021-05-03 00:00:05FORECAST2021218-6747.8528.6438.245169.197969757560.31830.34831.271.6183FF15.85212.85125460.2826718588577.87889359310.54920244312916933122126DRYL
2021-05-02 20:00:06FORECAST2021218-6747.3328.537.915168.988439968960.32430.35431.261.6143FF15.33226.33125460.2094116444577.7700705328270.5302983046189933122126DRYL
2021-05-02 16:00:06FORECAST2021218-6744.8829.5437.21167.592325140580.33890.35891.271.6289FF12.88232.88125459.72027593277.045589957710.44102306031046932122125DRYL
2021-05-02 12:00:07FORECAST2021218-6745.3830.7438.06168.230211063830.39290.41291.271.6829FF13.38226.38125459.9439776271277.3764724337460.45914781711476932122125DRYL
2021-05-02 08:00:06FORECAST2021218-6745.1630.7737.965168.729951960820.45490.47491.281.7549FF13.16222.16125460.1189798913477.6358533733250.45116018638339932122125DRYL
2021-05-02 04:02:32FORECAST2021218-6745.4931.1138.3168.184301766650.45830.48831.291.7783FF13.49233.49125459.9278896905177.3526509906090.46314803068618932122125DRYL
2021-05-02 00:00:07FORECAST2021218-6755.4532.4543.95168.035354435130.35970.38971.31.6897FF23.45237.45125459.8756813479977.2753731114050.79383334077304934122127DRYL
2021-05-01 20:00:06FORECAST2021218-6755.8132.9944.4167.980137488930.36130.39131.321.7113FF23.81249.81125459.8563219357377.2467281839170.80310931688971934122127DRYL
2021-05-01 16:00:06FORECAST2021218-6755.8933.0344.46168.036048934090.36130.40131.371.7713FF23.89251.89125459.8759248264577.2757334077450.80513587361964934122127DRYL
2021-05-01 12:02:24FORECAST2021218-6748.5730.3239.445168.609682981770.25470.29471.431.7247FF16.57244.57125460.0768836739777.5734175035110.57518535764822933122126DRYL
2021-05-01 08:00:06FORECAST2021218-6750.3930.2340.31168.731924807770.18110.25111.421.6711FF18.39237.39125460.1196703146177.6368776141010.63918694715156933122126DRYL
2021-05-01 04:00:08FORECAST2021218-6750.5230.2540.385168.408576262250.18140.25141.41.6514FF18.52242.52125460.0064641167777.4690336933390.6436354402072933122126DRYL
2021-05-01 00:00:06FORECAST2021218-6767.9243.5355.725167.229814986190.08930.15931.281.4393FF35.92259.92125459.592984792876.8576498158520.97527466898515935122128DRYL
2021-04-30 20:00:08FORECAST2021218-6766.5243.4754.995168.190577873670.09850.14851.491.6385FF34.52264.52125459.9300891294177.3559074721660.96680878916206935122128DRYL
2021-04-30 16:00:07FORECAST2021218-6766.3243.8255.07168.414281346160.10710.16711.51.6671FF34.32264.32125460.0084623055477.471994592340.9654245116548935122128DRYL
2021-04-30 12:00:06FORECAST2021218-6755.2934.8745.08169.309428080910.20370.25371.551.8037FF23.29244.29125460.3216263800177.9367912956720.78962904414379934122127DRYL
2021-04-30 07:55:34FORECAST2021218-6755.2334.8545.04169.390369898890.20370.23371.621.8537FF23.23241.23125460.3499085155577.9788412863710.78803957206648934122127DRYL
2021-04-30 04:00:10FORECAST2021218-6753.0734.9944.03169.079636051760.20180.23181.631.8618FF21.07245.07125460.241302330277.8174318939770.72633335375476934122127DRYL
2021-04-30 00:00:07FORECAST2021218-6751.3131.3441.325169.838177147370.22220.27221.711.9822FF19.31230.31125460.5062732288178.2115460101120.67023104578825933122126DRYL
2021-04-29 20:00:07FORECAST2021218-6754.9237.1446.03170.231117739550.16260.23261.892.1226FF22.92254.92125460.6433332535478.4158294990210.77971636135064934122127DRYL
2021-04-29 15:55:54FORECAST2021218-675545.4750.235170.64725423960.08210.13211.781.9121FF23251125460.7883350801678.6322641670670.78188200791558934122127DRYL
2021-04-29 11:55:54FORECAST2021218-6756.0443.8949.965169.572457695760.00040.03041.671.7004FF24.04257.04125460.4135111367378.073450639790.80890138900067934121123.5DRYL
2021-04-29 08:00:07FORECAST2021218-6745.0143.6444.325169.571505065610.00030.02031.651.6703FF13.01243.01125460.4131784629478.0729556240040.44572519133493932121122.5DRYL
2021-04-29 04:00:10FORECAST2021218-6745.0543.7544.4169.830418290200.021.641.66FF13.05248.05125460.5035655156478.2075131556490.44717356954435932121122.5DRYL