Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, May 6, 2021

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DAY 218 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/07/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.63°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.77°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.70°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.681 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 20 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 228 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.15 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.28 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.26 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.54 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 159 in SWE DAY: 125 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.77 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 72.75 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -67 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-07 03:55:07	OBSERVATION	2021	218	-67	51.63008	29.76998	40.70003	159.27789666667	0.14999999999998	0.27999999999998	1.26	1.54	F	F	19.63008	227.63008	125	456.77107497551	72.753536080271	0.6807755291449	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	218	-66	30.83	30.83	30.83	162.03222818852	0.0087	0.1387	1.26	1.3987	F	F	-1.17	206.83	126	458.28650811286	74.257184058262	0.075496596447858	93	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-05-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	218	-66	49.74	27.22	38.48	162.09628199355	0.2189	0.3489	1.26	1.6089	F	F	17.74	225.74	126	458.30922091465	74.290220713622	0.61667215092581	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-06 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	218	-66	48.74	28.38	38.56	161.80339269645	0.2528	0.3828	1.26	1.6428	F	F	16.74	224.74	126	458.20533527843	74.139177799662	0.5812771372993	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-06 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	218	-66	47.89	28.76	38.325	161.95412096927	0.2503	0.3803	1.26	1.6403	F	F	15.89	223.89	126	458.2588071182	74.216902283255	0.55065254756229	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-06 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	48.06	28.76	38.41	162.01976341779	0.17	0.3	1.26	1.56	F	F	16.06	217.06	125	457.75053042173	74.164632643297	0.55680771715783	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	48.54	29.32	38.93	163.03356243398	0.1327	0.2627	1.26	1.5227	F	F	16.54	224.54	125	458.11095798488	74.68746147032	0.57410842787368	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	48.71	29.62	39.165	162.98281945902	0.1449	0.2749	1.26	1.5349	F	F	16.71	224.71	125	458.09293981163	74.66127890477	0.58020348863772	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-05 11:55:10	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	48.72	30.01	39.365	161.6601378905	0.17	0.3	1.26	1.56	F	F	16.72	224.72	125	457.62245256404	73.979308783289	0.58056143826519	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-05 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	48.86	30.62	39.74	161.45177637895	0.1735	0.3035	1.26	1.5635	F	F	16.86	223.86	125	457.54819267296	73.87196848603	0.58556560475205	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-05 04:00:09	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	49.33	30.73	40.03	161.67229733535	0.161	0.291	1.26	1.551	F	F	17.33	226.33	125	457.62678496777	73.985573647928	0.60225956103203	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-05 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	49.08	30.46	39.77	162.09895687872	0.2054	0.2154	1.26	1.4754	F	F	17.08	222.08	125	457.77871884729	74.205452806424	0.59340101624281	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-04 20:00:05	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	49.54	29.74	39.64	163.23922876259	0.1705	0.1805	1.26	1.4405	F	F	17.54	228.54	125	458.18396365801	74.793596858919	0.60966041745025	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-04 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	47.86	29.83	38.845	163.35796671299	0.1687	0.1787	1.26	1.4387	F	F	15.86	226.86	125	458.22609487773	74.854883154059	0.54956503157937	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	47.33	28.88	38.105	162.82941851674	0.1521	0.1621	1.26	1.4221	F	F	15.33	226.33	125	458.03845499932	74.582135285843	0.5302983046189	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-04 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	46.94	28.75	37.845	163.05596463873	0.148	0.168	1.26	1.428	F	F	14.94	221.94	125	458.11891197875	74.699021111941	0.51607287271829	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-04 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	46.76	28.53	37.645	163.54461595554	0.169	0.209	1.26	1.469	F	F	14.76	226.76	125	458.29229705626	74.951237717447	0.50949927963651	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-04 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	46.26	28.08	37.17	165.48677166851	0.2217	0.2617	1.11	1.3717	F	F	14.26	222.26	125	458.97929649355	75.955002039402	0.49123131159423	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-03 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	47.53	29.38	38.455	165.24190574418	0.2071	0.2671	1.33	1.5971	F	F	15.53	227.53	125	458.89286657434	75.828331805154	0.53757957008914	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	47.14	29.25	38.195	165.66384668758	0.2906	0.3306	1.33	1.6606	F	F	15.14	227.14	125	459.04176488528	76.04662456115	0.5233716671944	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-03 12:00:05	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	47.23	28.18	37.705	166.17742951151	0.3553	0.3953	1.33	1.7253	F	F	15.23	227.23	125	459.22278740711	76.312462384421	0.52665371516574	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-03 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	47.34	28.06	37.7	165.92760032568	0.273	0.313	1.34	1.653	F	F	15.34	224.34	125	459.13475961794	76.183128889512	0.53066262906198	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-03 04:00:13	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	46.42	28.04	37.23	166.49741983789	0.2564	0.2864	1.29	1.5764	F	F	14.42	217.42	125	459.33545504512	76.478168105074	0.49707689463258	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-03 00:00:05	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	47.85	28.64	38.245	169.19796975756	0.3183	0.3483	1.27	1.6183	F	F	15.85	212.85	125	460.28267185885	77.8788935931	0.54920244312916	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-02 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	47.33	28.5	37.915	168.98843996896	0.3243	0.3543	1.26	1.6143	F	F	15.33	226.33	125	460.20941164445	77.770070532827	0.5302983046189	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-02 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	44.88	29.54	37.21	167.59232514058	0.3389	0.3589	1.27	1.6289	F	F	12.88	232.88	125	459.720275932	77.04558995771	0.44102306031046	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-02 12:00:07	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	45.38	30.74	38.06	168.23021106383	0.3929	0.4129	1.27	1.6829	F	F	13.38	226.38	125	459.94397762712	77.376472433746	0.45914781711476	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-02 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	45.16	30.77	37.965	168.72995196082	0.4549	0.4749	1.28	1.7549	F	F	13.16	222.16	125	460.11897989134	77.635853373325	0.45116018638339	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-02 04:02:32	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	45.49	31.11	38.3	168.18430176665	0.4583	0.4883	1.29	1.7783	F	F	13.49	233.49	125	459.92788969051	77.352650990609	0.46314803068618	93	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-02 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	55.45	32.45	43.95	168.03535443513	0.3597	0.3897	1.3	1.6897	F	F	23.45	237.45	125	459.87568134799	77.275373111405	0.79383334077304	93	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-05-01 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	55.81	32.99	44.4	167.98013748893	0.3613	0.3913	1.32	1.7113	F	F	23.81	249.81	125	459.85632193573	77.246728183917	0.80310931688971	93	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-05-01 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	55.89	33.03	44.46	168.03604893409	0.3613	0.4013	1.37	1.7713	F	F	23.89	251.89	125	459.87592482645	77.275733407745	0.80513587361964	93	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-05-01 12:02:24	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	48.57	30.32	39.445	168.60968298177	0.2547	0.2947	1.43	1.7247	F	F	16.57	244.57	125	460.07688367397	77.573417503511	0.57518535764822	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	50.39	30.23	40.31	168.73192480777	0.1811	0.2511	1.42	1.6711	F	F	18.39	237.39	125	460.11967031461	77.636877614101	0.63918694715156	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-01 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	50.52	30.25	40.385	168.40857626225	0.1814	0.2514	1.4	1.6514	F	F	18.52	242.52	125	460.00646411677	77.469033693339	0.6436354402072	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-01 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	67.92	43.53	55.725	167.22981498619	0.0893	0.1593	1.28	1.4393	F	F	35.92	259.92	125	459.5929847928	76.857649815852	0.97527466898515	93	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-30 20:00:08	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	66.52	43.47	54.995	168.19057787367	0.0985	0.1485	1.49	1.6385	F	F	34.52	264.52	125	459.93008912941	77.355907472166	0.96680878916206	93	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-30 16:00:07	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	66.32	43.82	55.07	168.41428134616	0.1071	0.1671	1.5	1.6671	F	F	34.32	264.32	125	460.00846230554	77.47199459234	0.9654245116548	93	5	1	2	2	1	2	8	DRY	L
2021-04-30 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	55.29	34.87	45.08	169.30942808091	0.2037	0.2537	1.55	1.8037	F	F	23.29	244.29	125	460.32162638001	77.936791295672	0.78962904414379	93	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-30 07:55:34	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	55.23	34.85	45.04	169.39036989889	0.2037	0.2337	1.62	1.8537	F	F	23.23	241.23	125	460.34990851555	77.978841286371	0.78803957206648	93	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-30 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	53.07	34.99	44.03	169.07963605176	0.2018	0.2318	1.63	1.8618	F	F	21.07	245.07	125	460.2413023302	77.817431893977	0.72633335375476	93	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-30 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	51.31	31.34	41.325	169.83817714737	0.2222	0.2722	1.71	1.9822	F	F	19.31	230.31	125	460.50627322881	78.211546010112	0.67023104578825	93	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-29 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	54.92	37.14	46.03	170.23111773955	0.1626	0.2326	1.89	2.1226	F	F	22.92	254.92	125	460.64333325354	78.415829499021	0.77971636135064	93	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-29 15:55:54	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	55	45.47	50.235	170.6472542396	0.0821	0.1321	1.78	1.9121	F	F	23	251	125	460.78833508016	78.632264167067	0.78188200791558	93	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-29 11:55:54	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	56.04	43.89	49.965	169.57245769576	0.0004	0.0304	1.67	1.7004	F	F	24.04	257.04	125	460.41351113673	78.07345063979	0.80890138900067	93	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2021-04-29 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	45.01	43.64	44.325	169.57150506561	0.0003	0.0203	1.65	1.6703	F	F	13.01	243.01	125	460.41317846294	78.072955624004	0.44572519133493	93	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-04-29 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	218	-67	45.05	43.75	44.4	169.8304182902	0	0.02	1.64	1.66	F	F	13.05	248.05	125	460.50356551564	78.207513155649	0.44717356954435	93	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L