MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, May 5, 2021

[ Tuesday, May 4, 2021 | Index | Today | Thursday, May 6, 2021 ]

DAY 217 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/05/2021 12:00:03 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.94°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.26°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.10°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.777
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 230

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.28 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.11 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.39 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 163 in
SWE DAY: 124
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.01 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 74.54 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -67

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-05 11:55:08FORECAST2021217-6754.9445.2650.1162.738129333330.00440.28441.111.3944FF22.94229.94125458.0060209097174.535043066250.77709646069908944122127DRYL
2021-05-05 08:00:03FORECAST2021217-6754.1942.7548.47162.521266666670.00470.28471.111.3947FF22.19229.19125457.9289417182174.4231916513690.75627289786317944122127DRYL
2021-05-05 04:00:09FORECAST2021217-6755.6538.6747.16162.797797916670.00170.28171.111.3917FF23.65230.65125458.0272213830174.5658230270440.79584180297244944122127DRYL
2021-05-05 00:00:06FORECAST2021217-685638.547.25163.1889480.00610.15611.111.2661FF24227124457.6341200394874.6808306181490.80472679063653944122127DRYL
2021-05-04 20:00:03FORECAST2021217-6855.7937.8646.825164.217265333330.00250.16251.111.2725FF23.79232.79124458.0000061003375.2115085244470.79942427039404944122127DRYL
2021-05-04 16:00:03FORECAST2021217-6856.0937.1546.62164.230549333330.00160.16161.111.2716FF24.09233.09124458.0047264367675.2183678199710.80697303563523944122127DRYL
2021-05-04 12:00:03FORECAST2021217-6856.0137.0246.515163.6633826666700.161.111.27FF24.01233.01124457.8030476046274.9255953660820.80497715321403944122127DRYL
2021-05-04 08:00:06FORECAST2021217-6855.9237.1946.555163.8096993044100.171.111.28FF23.92228.92124457.8551041589575.0011069372680.80271688282248944122127DRYL
2021-05-04 04:00:08FORECAST2021217-6855.9636.8646.41164.1542142813600.191.111.3FF23.96233.96124457.9775993680375.1789529827220.80372339314882944122127DRYL
2021-05-04 00:00:05FORECAST2021217-6855.5736.9646.265165.6071906968800.041.111.15FF23.57229.57124458.493039679575.9297442553970.7937777136551944121123.5DRYL
2021-05-03 20:00:06FORECAST2021217-6853.9636.9245.44165.6850071201100.281.111.39FF21.96233.96124458.5205912601875.9699874276620.7496831099875944122127DRYL
2021-05-03 16:00:03FORECAST2021217-6853.539.0746.285165.53720159160.00040.26041.111.3704FF21.5233.5124458.4682547767375.8935519143230.7362257425435944122127DRYL
2021-05-03 12:00:04FORECAST2021217-6853.7139.0646.385165.8001558550500.261.111.37FF21.71233.71124458.5613506802676.0295434118910.7424147100019944122127DRYL
2021-05-03 08:00:07FORECAST2021217-6853.7439.0346.385165.898774049030.00040.27041.111.3804FF21.74230.74124458.596249277176.0805555385530.74329266016015944122127DRYL
2021-05-03 04:00:13FORECAST2021217-6850.3339.1244.725166.391405302330.00040.21041.111.3204FF18.33225.33124458.7704487364576.3354596764380.63462810176156943122126DRYL
2021-05-03 00:00:04FORECAST2021217-6852.8236.7844.8168.919702294510.00940.19941.11.2994FF20.82218.82124459.6610584817577.6458091551180.71567889555844944122127DRYL
2021-05-02 20:00:06FORECAST2021217-6854.939.0146.955168.6859866938200.171.121.29FF22.9232.9124459.578970281877.5245320657150.77601204817003944122127DRYL
2021-05-02 16:00:06FORECAST2021217-6856.536.6746.585167.8946023187600.171.121.29FF24.5241.5124459.3006492885277.1140998570430.81700528989684944122127DRYL
2021-05-02 12:00:07FORECAST2021217-6851.4635.5143.485167.820611272920.00020.17021.121.2902FF19.46235.46124459.2745988589577.0757439226350.6724390910617943122126DRYL
2021-05-02 08:00:06FORECAST2021217-6851.9835.7143.845167.9811990498600.171.131.3FF19.98230.98124459.331131652877.1589942559640.68928953996969943122126DRYL
2021-05-02 04:02:32FORECAST2021217-6856.6934.8645.775167.431943193110.00520.19521.121.3152FF24.69241.69124459.1376779428376.8743136111420.82154224869776944122127DRYL
2021-05-02 00:00:07FORECAST2021217-6858.4135.5346.97169.430067983290.00460.21461.121.3346FF26.41236.41124459.8401455068477.9107471146730.85935452290252945122128DRYL
2021-05-01 20:00:06FORECAST2021217-6858.4633.5646.01169.397180545180.00160.19161.161.3516FF26.46248.46124459.8286123204477.8936704610850.86036586065905945122128DRYL
2021-05-01 16:00:06FORECAST2021217-6858.5235.4847169.4799472050.00020.25021.161.4102FF26.52249.52124459.8576356468377.9366478112390.86157294246109945122128DRYL
2021-05-01 12:02:24FORECAST2021217-6857.3736.3646.865169.51487371350.00040.30041.171.4704FF25.37250.37124459.8698813016977.9547848534980.83719399844291944122127DRYL
2021-05-01 08:00:06FORECAST2021217-6852.8634.5243.69169.765655603290.00040.31041.181.4904FF20.86240.86124459.9577765578978.0850334871830.71690838709632944122127DRYL
2021-05-01 04:00:08FORECAST2021217-6852.8934.8443.865169.434658939140.00040.31041.161.4704FF20.89245.89124459.8417554172777.9131309951010.7178288300237944122127DRYL
2021-05-01 00:00:06FORECAST2021217-6859.3533.0646.205170.072098986190.00130.29131.061.3513FF27.35246.35124460.0651043455778.2442379663510.87754472700915945122128DRYL
2021-04-30 20:00:08FORECAST2021217-6859.434.4846.94170.957203207010.00190.31191.231.5419FF27.4252.4124460.3746318305378.7043594852030.87846391231258945122128DRYL
2021-04-30 16:00:07FORECAST2021217-6859.4934.4846.985171.169426679490.00190.30191.261.5619FF27.49252.49124460.44874457678.8147476243670.88010623895249945122128DRYL
2021-04-30 12:00:06FORECAST2021217-6857.7133.445.555171.097465414240.00130.35131.251.6013FF25.71242.71124460.4236187175278.7773141794210.84467531101397944122127DRYL
2021-04-30 07:55:34FORECAST2021217-6857.8533.4145.63171.185513898890.00130.28131.371.6513FF25.85239.85124460.4543609308578.8231164029350.84768901450299944122127DRYL
2021-04-30 04:00:10FORECAST2021217-6858.232.8745.535170.791030718430.00070.23071.431.6607FF26.2246.2124460.3165731297578.6179419816030.85505286191464945122128DRYL
2021-04-30 00:00:07FORECAST2021217-6861.3934.948.145171.078071814040.00740.31741.441.7574FF29.39233.39124460.4168464993178.7672263298020.91119960932222945122128DRYL
2021-04-29 20:00:07FORECAST2021217-6862.0134.7748.39171.886697739550.00760.36761.591.9576FF30.01254.01124460.6989347115579.1880185396960.91992230328179945122128DRYL
2021-04-29 15:55:54FORECAST2021217-6862.0734.7848.425172.122980906270.00760.23761.591.8276FF30.07250.07124460.7812524947479.3110427251180.92073090898069945122128DRYL
2021-04-29 11:55:54FORECAST2021217-6859.9133.9646.935170.537488362430.00070.08071.621.7007FF27.91254.91124460.227941198978.4861171662720.88756405905841945121124DRYL
2021-04-29 08:00:06FORECAST2021217-6860.335.2547.775170.106801065610.00170.09171.581.6717FF28.3252.3124460.0772530301978.262269756020.89418782038493945122128DRYL
2021-04-29 04:00:10FORECAST2021217-6860.3535.2647.805170.171319623530.00170.09171.571.6617FF28.35257.35124460.0998371768378.2957964509520.89501625066617945122128DRYL
2021-04-29 00:00:07FORECAST2021217-6861.9434.7648.35170.626718184240.0040.0241.691.714FF29.94246.94124460.2591401745678.5325066022870.91897109356309945121124DRYL
2021-04-28 20:00:06FORECAST2021217-6862.9537.4650.205171.539498537860.00210.05211.581.6321FF30.95261.95124460.577885648879.0072995418210.93189347050398945121124DRYL
2021-04-28 16:00:06FORECAST2021217-6862.0137.5549.78172.0056413293600.051.691.74FF30.01259.01124460.7403791862779.2499444082690.91992230328179945121124DRYL
2021-04-28 12:00:06FORECAST2021217-6846.0732.8739.47172.677399237770.00140.26141.691.9514FF14.07230.07124460.9742103129979.5998277525310.48310809430895942122125DRYL
2021-04-28 07:55:50FORECAST2021217-6836.3532.9634.655172.838937876470.00020.26021.611.8702FF4.35216.35124461.0303805550479.6840013039170.17766085531522941122124DRYL
2021-04-28 04:00:08FORECAST2021217-6832.1829.8331.005173.880414088980.00020.16021.621.7802FF0.18211.18124461.3919700691380.2270268129490.096276320994055941122124DRYL