Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, May 4, 2021

[ Monday, May 3, 2021 | Index | Today | Wednesday, May 5, 2021 ]

DAY 216 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 05/05/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.17°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.52°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.35°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.382 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 10 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 225 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.13 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.29 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.10 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.39 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 164 in SWE DAY: 123 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.50 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 75.18 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -69 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-05-05 04:00:08	OBSERVATION	2021	216	-69	42.17	32.52002	37.34501	164.32217791667	0.13000000000011	0.29000000000011	1.1	1.3900000000001	F	F	10.17	225.17	123	457.50479197898	75.178183825298	0.38172412151491	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	216	-68	38.3	38.3	38.3	164.96556	0	0.16	1.1	1.26	F	F	6.3	221.3	124	458.26565706818	75.59805074702	0.2553581021602	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	216	-68	44	35.57	39.785	165.42572666667	0.0072	0.1672	1.1	1.2672	F	F	12	227	124	458.42876960289	75.835912336465	0.44738868390738	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-04 08:00:05	FORECAST	2021	216	-68	39.73	33.7	36.715	165.57330063775	0.0155	0.1755	1.1	1.2755	F	F	7.73	222.73	124	458.48103890726	75.912218891698	0.29948316867101	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-04 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	216	-68	45.11	32.82	38.965	165.90611694803	0.0394	0.1994	1.1	1.2994	F	F	13.11	228.11	124	458.59884740204	76.084354009314	0.48805776411064	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-04 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	44.94	33.03	38.985	167.33318136355	0.0359	0.0459	1.1	1.1459	F	F	12.94	223.94	123	458.57443184624	76.734718572815	0.48181046374413	91	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2021-05-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	44.79	32.43	38.61	167.37092712011	0.0586	0.2886	1.1	1.3886	F	F	12.79	229.79	123	458.58778893634	76.754263400238	0.47630179685465	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-03 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	45.25	33.34	39.295	167.29030692493	0.0361	0.2661	1.1	1.3661	F	F	13.25	230.25	123	458.55925831603	76.712519066956	0.49320486876057	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	45.28	33.32	39.3	167.55829052172	0.0403	0.2703	1.1	1.3703	F	F	13.28	230.28	123	458.65407226763	76.85129228999	0.4943079961854	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-03 08:00:07	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	45.58	32.42	39	167.63515138236	0.0359	0.2759	1.1	1.3759	F	F	13.58	226.58	123	458.68125412132	76.891101470878	0.50534027247246	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-03 04:00:13	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	45.64	33.02	39.33	168.04151863566	0.0328	0.2228	1.1	1.3228	F	F	13.64	224.64	123	458.82487779235	77.101629252048	0.50754650763757	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	45.48	33.25	39.365	170.53980362785	0.0197	0.1897	1.1	1.2897	F	F	13.48	216.48	123	459.70460482124	78.397933033032	0.5016628841805	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-02 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	45.06	33.09	39.075	170.38978269382	0.0261	0.1861	1.1	1.2861	F	F	13.06	228.06	123	459.65193499313	78.319993318271	0.48621994984935	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-05-02 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	47.59	33.3	40.445	169.76666231876	0.0227	0.1927	1.1	1.2927	F	F	15.59	234.59	123	459.43295297186	77.996398985283	0.57874073653749	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-02 12:00:07	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	47.58	32.87	40.225	169.45749527292	0.02	0.19	1.1	1.29	F	F	15.58	233.58	123	459.32417426874	77.835924089882	0.57838013540067	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-02 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	46.69	32.91	39.8	169.66170704986	0.0199	0.1999	1.1	1.2999	F	F	14.69	228.69	123	459.39603462188	77.941915445883	0.5460583619621	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-02 04:02:32	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	46.85	32.9	39.875	169.18258852645	0.0215	0.2115	1.1	1.3115	F	F	14.85	234.85	123	459.22737808741	77.693276547042	0.55189797780242	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-02 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	47.73	33.42	40.575	171.30305731663	0.0327	0.2327	1.1	1.3327	F	F	15.73	227.73	123	459.97225977951	78.794654381068	0.58378208623379	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-01 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	49.38	33.77	41.575	171.17428454518	0.0348	0.2148	1.14	1.3548	F	F	17.38	240.38	123	459.92713860381	78.727698893418	0.64195171089014	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-01 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	49.73	32.56	41.145	171.33172587166	0.0366	0.2666	1.14	1.4066	F	F	17.73	240.73	123	459.98230305393	78.809561852651	0.65392719149184	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-01 12:02:24	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	50.99	31.54	41.265	171.3447857135	0.0395	0.3295	1.14	1.4695	F	F	18.99	242.99	123	459.98687798365	78.816353039131	0.69570927073922	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	47.13	33.38	40.255	171.43539426996	0.07	0.34	1.15	1.49	F	F	15.13	238.13	123	460.01861444812	78.863472539432	0.56208954814262	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-05-01 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	51.28	32.41	41.845	171.11582293914	0.0683	0.3283	1.14	1.4683	F	F	19.28	243.28	123	459.90664915032	78.697304744539	0.7049993320786	91	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-05-01 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	50.58	33.47	42.025	171.88418965286	0.0706	0.3106	1.04	1.3506	F	F	18.58	236.58	123	460.17570144044	79.096927540025	0.6823579265867	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-30 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	50.64	32.82	41.73	172.85550320701	0.0457	0.3257	1.21	1.5357	F	F	18.64	242.64	123	460.51506727133	79.602563687596	0.68432720749034	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-30 16:00:07	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	50.7	33.54	42.12	173.04602401283	0.0626	0.3326	1.23	1.5626	F	F	18.7	242.7	123	460.58153489519	79.701803347337	0.68629127299746	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-30 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	49.09	32.87	40.98	172.75823874757	0.0511	0.3711	1.23	1.6011	F	F	17.09	235.09	123	460.48112189348	79.551907594826	0.63192167999108	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-30 07:55:34	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	43.79	32.49	38.14	172.85049656556	0.0299	0.2999	1.35	1.6499	F	F	11.79	231.79	123	460.51332015399	79.599956063673	0.43974336382892	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-30 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	48.47	32.88	40.675	172.39243605176	0.0299	0.2499	1.41	1.6599	F	F	16.47	238.47	123	460.35338134031	79.36144085392	0.61018212384301	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-30 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	48.47	32.5	40.485	172.85309848071	0.0399	0.3299	1.42	1.7499	F	F	16.47	222.47	123	460.51422812094	79.601311225156	0.61018212384301	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-29 20:00:07	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	49.14	31.62	40.38	173.68725373955	0.0572	0.3872	1.56	1.9472	F	F	17.14	242.14	123	460.80500667082	80.03595611809	0.63365764488751	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-29 15:55:54	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	49.22	33.07	41.145	173.92801957293	0.0391	0.2591	1.56	1.8191	F	F	17.22	238.22	123	460.88882082756	80.161479849842	0.6364294976833	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-29 11:55:54	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	50.51	34.16	42.335	172.23466969576	0.0303	0.1203	1.58	1.7003	F	F	18.51	244.51	123	460.29825171393	79.279317345484	0.68005390248657	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-29 08:00:06	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	51.58	34.32	42.95	171.89166773228	0.0229	0.1229	1.55	1.6729	F	F	19.58	241.58	123	460.17831739523	79.100818431301	0.7144700107279	91	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-29 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	51.65	34.29	42.97	171.96066895686	0.0229	0.1329	1.53	1.6629	F	F	19.65	246.65	123	460.20245281061	79.136721640903	0.71665885428483	91	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-29 00:00:07	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	52.57	34.88	43.725	172.51649018424	0.0018	0.1118	1.6	1.7118	F	F	20.57	234.57	123	460.39671510796	79.42602538278	0.74465477905592	91	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-28 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	52.89	33.44	43.165	173.23613320452	0.0031	0.1231	1.51	1.6331	F	F	20.89	248.89	123	460.64782686456	79.800848295084	0.75404261019582	91	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-28 16:00:06	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	52.99	33.46	43.225	173.1189826627	0.0031	0.2131	1.53	1.7431	F	F	20.99	246.99	123	460.60697970479	79.739811733831	0.75693792182449	91	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-28 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	45.55	30.48	38.015	172.9394165711	0.0206	0.4206	1.53	1.9506	F	F	13.55	233.55	123	460.54434636793	79.646270565989	0.50423708941415	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-28 07:55:50	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	45.62	30.5	38.06	172.9323632098	0.0206	0.3206	1.55	1.8706	F	F	13.62	229.62	123	460.54188554549	79.64259662448	0.50681111823178	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-28 04:00:08	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	44.55	29.89	37.22	173.87994944454	0.0281	0.2181	1.56	1.7781	F	F	12.55	228.55	123	460.872090998	80.13641588313	0.46749777855599	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-28 00:00:06	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	51.5	31.96	41.73	172.65603045145	0.0154	0.3054	1.54	1.8454	F	F	19.5	237.5	123	460.44544207484	79.498682268105	0.71195867350638	91	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2021-04-27 20:00:06	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	49.27	30.52	39.895	174.14651950772	0.0971	0.5171	1.58	2.0971	F	F	17.27	245.27	123	460.96483954243	80.275422421749	0.63815829827545	91	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2021-04-27 15:59:37	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	48.16	30.55	39.355	174.2494722826	0.0821	0.4721	1.61	2.0821	F	F	16.16	243.16	123	461.00064341193	80.329118836468	0.59917686191517	91	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2021-04-27 12:00:06	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	38.5	34.92	36.71	172.80433741376	0.0192	0.2792	1.58	1.8592	F	F	6.5	242.5	123	460.49721141206	79.575915498946	0.26131922813123	91	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2021-04-27 08:00:08	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	36.52	34.34	35.43	173.02972870915	0.0128	0.1528	1.38	1.5328	F	F	4.52	236.52	123	460.5758511565	79.693314575597	0.20558123356784	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2021-04-27 04:00:10	FORECAST	2021	216	-69	35.98	34.96	35.47	172.35574252533	0.0112	0.1512	1.3	1.4512	F	F	3.98	244.98	123	460.34056118385	79.342339237371	0.19170000022738	91	1	1	2	2	1	2	4	DRY	L