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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 20, 2021

[ Monday, April 19, 2021 | Index | Today | Wednesday, April 21, 2021 ]

DAY 202 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/21/2021 08:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.23°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.73°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.48°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.805
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 184

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.06 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.06 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 183 in
SWE DAY: 109
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.60 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 83.44 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -83

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-21 07:59:42OBSERVATION2021202-8351.2299433.7299842.47996182.73913583333001.061.06FF19.22994184.22994109456.60042428002 83.4387669540650.804910287848789 4111123DRYL
2021-04-21 04:00:07OBSERVATION2021202-8351.2299433.7299842.47996182.73913583333001.061.06FF19.22994184.22994109456.60042428002 83.4387669540650.804910287848789 4111123DRYL
2021-04-21 00:00:02FORECAST2021202-8236.7436.7436.74183.9740880.00130.00131.061.0613FF4.74169.74110457.5771963967484.1823473966860.29753135850222892111122DRYL
2021-04-20 12:00:02FORECAST2021202-8248.4236.9942.705184.1918080.01210.01211.061.0721FF16.42181.42110457.6547746892584.2962603898460.72224795328019894111123DRYL
2021-04-20 08:00:03FORECAST2021202-8248.7133.1940.95184.103029333330.01410.01411.061.0741FF16.71181.71110457.6231461316684.249807495890.73150447552904894111123DRYL
2021-04-20 04:00:08FORECAST2021202-8248.7835.0641.92183.781706416670.01950.01951.061.0795FF16.78181.78110457.5086110122484.0817132321480.73371537516481894111123DRYL
2021-04-20 00:00:06FORECAST2021202-8348.8135.2342.02184.828493333330.04570.04571.061.1057FF16.81169.81109457.3483103548284.5309991314260.73466007855694894111123DRYL
2021-04-19 20:00:02FORECAST2021202-8348.1134.1341.12185.8969360.04840.05841.061.1184FF16.11177.11109457.7292286566485.0904611249130.71218401728326894111123DRYL
2021-04-19 15:56:12FORECAST2021202-8348.7237.2242.97185.768961333330.02890.03891.061.0989FF16.72177.72109457.6836579488885.0234177564030.73182088173807894111123DRYL
2021-04-19 11:59:41FORECAST2021202-834937.1843.09184.990125333330.02550.03551.061.0955FF17178109457.406001344484.615593516920.74060348513499894111123DRYL
2021-04-19 08:02:04FORECAST2021202-8348.5437.1242.83184.884509333330.02430.03431.061.0943FF16.54178.54109457.3683067165984.5603149719140.72609705780583894111123DRYL
2021-04-19 04:00:07FORECAST2021202-8349.6936.9843.335184.8852060.0220.0321.061.092FF17.69181.69109457.3685553918984.5606795815510.76159546869076894111123DRYL
2021-04-19 00:00:06FORECAST2021202-8349.8536.2143.03188.698369333330.02250.03251.061.0925FF17.85165.85109458.7230933121486.5602996835430.76632702347441894111123DRYL
2021-04-18 20:00:06FORECAST2021202-8349.1335.742.415189.69435527560.02540.04541.061.1054FF17.13183.13109459.0747386637187.0838865741260.7446300893021894111123DRYL
2021-04-18 16:00:06FORECAST2021202-8348.9436.3942.665189.5970720.02650.04651.061.1065FF16.94182.94109459.0404307697187.0327216035560.73873406660533894111123DRYL
2021-04-18 12:00:06FORECAST2021202-8348.7536.6942.72188.462793333330.02660.03661.061.0966FF16.75183.75109458.6397900748586.436535971320.73276897462854894111123DRYL
2021-04-18 08:00:06FORECAST2021202-8347.793641.895188.289117333330.02440.04441.061.1044FF15.79176.79109458.5783436859186.3453115608020.70161841210424894111123DRYL
2021-04-18 03:59:44FORECAST2021202-8348.4235.9442.18188.0004440.02560.04561.061.1056FF16.42176.42109458.4761513700386.1937200209770.72224795328019894111123DRYL
2021-04-18 00:00:06FORECAST2021202-8348.2937.0142.65188.542862666670.0270.0271.061.087FF16.29175.29109458.6681093943286.4785983591140.71804853978855894111123DRYL
2021-04-17 20:00:06FORECAST2021202-8348.7534.6641.705189.642520.04890.05891.071.1289FF16.75188.75109459.0564595043787.0566238026870.73276897462854894111123DRYL
2021-04-17 15:56:09FORECAST2021202-8343.793639.895189.6607240.05410.05411.071.1241FF11.79183.79109459.062879225887.0661980354890.55769999879983893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-17 12:00:06FORECAST2021202-8342.6935.7139.2188.249340.10350.11351.071.1835FF10.69182.69109458.5642666911286.3244205521880.51577977876092893112125DRYL
2021-04-17 08:00:06FORECAST2021202-8343.8937.5340.71187.804189333330.21620.22621.071.2962FF11.89185.89109458.4066330889186.0906861122860.56148616365738893112125DRYL
2021-04-17 03:59:45FORECAST2021202-8348.7835.1941.985187.215019583330.27210.27211.061.3321FF16.78192.78109458.197726223185.7814962878960.73371537516481894112126DRYL
2021-04-17 00:00:06FORECAST2021202-8348.6236.5642.59189.009937333330.28180.28181.071.3518FF16.62179.62109458.8331919402986.7240328550880.72864841179021894112126DRYL
2021-04-16 20:00:06FORECAST2021202-8349.5437.3143.425189.938105333330.19580.20581.071.2758FF17.54192.54109459.1606622725287.212106235640.75711248693412894112126DRYL
2021-04-16 16:00:06FORECAST2021202-8350.2335.9143.07189.770989333330.21270.22271.071.2927FF18.23193.23109459.1017584413787.1241949040920.77735337023487894112126DRYL
2021-04-16 12:00:06FORECAST2021202-8350.0935.3942.74189.005601333330.21530.22531.071.2953FF18.09188.09109458.8316603279186.7217538710480.77332587076366894112126DRYL
2021-04-16 08:00:06FORECAST2021202-8349.0135.3942.2188.581770666670.06760.07761.071.1476FF17.01194.01109458.6818684898186.4990389325030.74091438264207894111123DRYL
2021-04-16 04:00:08FORECAST2021202-8350.5535.6443.095188.315090750.05830.06831.071.1383FF18.55191.55109458.5875347776886.3589532284780.78640453174501894111123DRYL
2021-04-15 23:59:43FORECAST2021202-8350.7437.6544.195189.94310.06490.07491.081.1549FF18.74191.74109459.1624223714887.2147339087490.79167585154626894111123DRYL
2021-04-15 20:00:06FORECAST2021202-8350.7637.3244.04191.112129333330.16280.19281.071.2628FF18.76189.76109459.5737696320687.8301217001310.7922262364045894112126DRYL
2021-04-15 16:00:07FORECAST2021202-8349.9635.7242.84191.081133333330.11980.12981.071.1998FF17.96192.96109459.5628788013787.8137957192950.76954957919081894112126DRYL
2021-04-15 12:00:06FORECAST2021202-8350.4737.9844.225190.177602666670.08190.09191.071.1619FF18.47184.47109459.2450349685787.3381197868920.78416202777368894112126DRYL
2021-04-15 08:00:06FORECAST2021202-8350.6337.9944.31190.3279360.08190.09191.071.1619FF18.63178.63109459.2979697976587.4172346005760.78863342730871894112126DRYL
2021-04-15 04:00:09FORECAST2021202-8348.937.0742.985189.748992583330.13970.14971.071.2197FF16.9193.9109459.0940033247787.1126246319250.73748395852009894112126DRYL
2021-04-15 00:00:07FORECAST2021202-8347.0633.1940.125190.446070666670.01990.02991.061.0899FF15.06177.06109459.3395527683887.4794129265220.67688040665085893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-14 20:00:07FORECAST2021202-8347.133.2340.165191.795445333330.01990.02991.081.1099FF15.1185.1109459.8136435436988.1901625338040.67825771016978893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-14 16:00:07FORECAST2021202-8345.5632.6439.1191.826317020650.03640.08641.071.1564FF13.56184.56109459.8244710345788.2064347545270.62362770187455893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-14 12:00:06FORECAST2021202-8346.2733.9740.12190.564749713450.02770.02771.071.0977FF14.27188.27109459.3813147969687.5418852773160.64920238860129893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-14 08:00:06FORECAST2021202-8346.9433.7140.325190.522886263790.02410.02411.071.0941FF14.94187.94109459.3665848840287.5198476052430.67273399600865893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-14 03:59:47FORECAST2021202-8347.9433.7140.825190.869283856950.02410.02411.071.0941FF15.94195.94109459.4884198874987.7022256444850.70659300594231894111123DRYL
2021-04-13 23:56:33FORECAST2021202-8355.1239.5847.35191.246278719760.0050.0051.081.085FF23.12205.12109459.6208948053987.9007857533790.89121091339667895121124DRYL
2021-04-13 20:00:06FORECAST2021202-8355.1440.8948.015191.645630104970.00290.00291.081.0829FF23.14206.14109459.7610874495988.1112033020250.89156912166731895121124DRYL
2021-04-13 16:00:07FORECAST2021202-8354.0440.6347.335192.060252398120.00170.00171.081.0817FF22.04196.04109459.9064905718388.3297566587590.87059323204448895111123.5DRYL
2021-04-13 12:00:06FORECAST2021202-8344.2339.7241.975191.829313523810.00020.02021.071.0902FF12.23198.23109459.8255219397288.2080142144240.57431507249444893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-13 08:00:06FORECAST2021202-8342.6940.6941.69192.385962347460.00020.02021.071.0902FF10.69181.69109460.0206058431288.5015069547890.51577977876092893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-13 04:00:08FORECAST2021202-8343.3941.6142.5192.2793826622100.031.071.1FF11.39199.39109459.9832751286388.4453001766760.54250599445313893121123DRYL