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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 15, 2021

[ Wednesday, April 14, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, April 16, 2021 ]

DAY 197 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/16/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.52°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 37.91°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.72°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.947
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 123

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.22 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.22 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 197 in
SWE DAY: 104
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 90.30 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -88

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-16 04:00:08OBSERVATION2021197-8853.5200837.9099445.71501196.76633875001.221.22FF21.52008122.52008104458.93067968815 90.3021095822860.9469902048779387 5111123.5DRYL
2021-04-15 12:00:03FORECAST2021197-8750.8239.1544.985199.072470666670.00510.00511.221.2251FF18.82119.82105460.2663263959291.6263547603070.9022740232901875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-15 08:00:03FORECAST2021197-8745.8237.0541.435199.112541333330.00950.00951.221.2295FF13.82114.82105460.2803339686391.647587022250.75799265328349874111123DRYL
2021-04-15 04:00:09FORECAST2021197-8751.9333.8642.895198.531192583330.01120.01121.221.2312FF19.93120.93105460.0769711072791.3396297540540.92318389603558875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-15 00:00:06FORECAST2021197-8853.2735.5544.41198.633497333330.00460.00461.221.2246FF21.27113.27104459.5881928090191.2896100707590.94368990841479875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-14 20:00:02FORECAST2021197-8853.0335.5744.3199.683626666670.00620.01621.221.2362FF21.03119.03104459.9566242528591.8458068401660.94037287944777875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-14 16:00:02FORECAST2021197-8853.0236.5144.765199.662962666670.00340.01341.221.2334FF21.02119.02104459.9493838895791.83485666410.94023142725761875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-14 12:00:06FORECAST2021197-8852.8836.544.69199.046225481660.00040.01041.221.2304FF20.88118.88104459.7331131808191.5081409075730.93822347265603875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-14 08:00:05FORECAST2021197-8852.7135.9544.33199.056352930460.00060.01061.221.2306FF20.71119.71104459.736667301491.5135043014190.93571513385041875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-14 03:59:47FORECAST2021197-8852.6935.9744.33199.541330523610.00020.01021.221.2302FF20.69120.69104459.9067580635491.77040642080.93541492196554875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-13 23:56:33FORECAST2021197-8851.5535.5143.53201.240056053100.021.221.24FF19.55115.55104460.5008834997692.6712236079930.91644530330579875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-13 20:00:06FORECAST2021197-8851.7435.5743.655201.218091438310.00020.02021.221.2402FF19.74115.74104460.4932177725292.6595664004710.91986795153673875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-13 16:00:06FORECAST2021197-8851.6334.0542.84201.2406990647900.021.221.24FF19.63115.63104460.5011079066592.6715648752420.91789952906638875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-13 12:00:06FORECAST2021197-8851.4935.9643.725201.130573523810.00040.01041.221.2304FF19.49115.49104460.4626694675292.6131207963080.9153420371769875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-13 08:00:06FORECAST2021197-8851.6335.9643.795201.220095680790.00080.01081.221.2308FF19.63109.63104460.4939172778792.6606300950760.91789952906638875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-13 04:00:08FORECAST2021197-8851.3935.9143.65201.2330719955500.011.221.23FF19.39117.39104460.4984460856792.6675169549950.91347911895649875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-13 00:00:07FORECAST2021197-8851.0635.3943.225204.20008997195001.221.22FF19.06102.06104461.5300431454694.244476335060.90711479617586875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-12 20:00:06FORECAST2021197-8851.1135.7743.44204.1309882575700.011.231.24FF19.11113.11104461.5061056143594.2076974259590.90810065982106875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-12 12:00:07FORECAST2021197-8846.5933.6540.12204.1902431770.00140.00141.231.2314FF14.59108.59104461.5266323730294.2392352969090.78564501582481874111123DRYL
2021-04-12 07:59:48FORECAST2021197-8846.3734.1440.255204.651592083070.00230.01231.231.2423FF14.37108.37104461.6863446653194.4848454787690.77793728097422874111123DRYL
2021-04-12 03:56:31FORECAST2021197-8853.432.542.95204.54089016420.00310.01311.231.2431FF21.4115.4104461.6480383329494.4259007031780.94542511266512875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-12 00:00:06FORECAST2021197-8852.0934.3943.24205.084769899010.00230.00231.211.2123FF20.09106.09104461.8361342692294.7155573276530.9258947388432875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-11 19:56:39FORECAST2021197-8851.3935.5543.47205.087675757340.00290.01291.211.2229FF19.39114.39104461.837138536694.7171053208910.91347911895649875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-11 16:01:52FORECAST2021197-8851.4335.1443.285205.139343907630.00270.01271.211.2227FF19.43115.43104461.8549938605394.7446304210130.91422791838841875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-11 12:00:06FORECAST2021197-8851.3434.442.87205.360100960630.00210.01211.211.2221FF19.34113.34104461.9312560299194.8622493751730.91253628403458875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-11 08:00:06FORECAST2021197-8843.1733.9738.57205.803525938560.00550.01551.211.2255FF11.1795.17104462.084311341495.098580554950.64983330700262873111122.5DRYL
2021-04-11 04:00:07FORECAST2021197-8843.1633.8438.5205.597276932840.00550.01551.211.2255FF11.16107.16104462.0131426004694.9886440258370.6493928893898873111122.5DRYL
2021-04-11 00:00:06FORECAST2021197-8847.0732.2239.645204.836205381490.00290.01290.940.9529FF15.07101.07104461.7502026966594.5831593545170.8019123680882874111123DRYL
2021-04-10 19:56:50FORECAST2021197-8846.9631.8139.385203.743170530130.00330.01331.061.0733FF14.96107.96104461.3716836543794.0013296205670.79825165996081874111123DRYL
2021-04-10 16:00:06FORECAST2021197-8846.6230.738.66203.82359371460.01290.04291.061.1029FF14.62104.62104461.3995701126394.0441185187270.78668390270513874111123DRYL
2021-04-10 12:00:06FORECAST2021197-8841.3529.4135.38205.225669794460.03950.06951.051.1195FF9.3596.35104461.884820873194.7906217315740.56692695207521873111122.5DRYL
2021-04-10 08:00:06FORECAST2021197-8840.6929.4635.075206.178527256060.03950.07951.151.2295FF8.6988.69104462.2136146486695.2985223459610.53590108383289873111122.5DRYL
2021-04-10 04:00:08FORECAST2021197-8837.9827.6132.795207.018622747340.01780.04781.241.2878FF5.9889.98104462.5028393411795.7467008171420.40827664440089872111122DRYL
2021-04-10 00:00:06FORECAST2021197-8848.9936.8142.9209.793169479230.00230.04231.471.5123FF16.99105.99104463.4536759712697.2294155888110.85922034989951875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-09 20:00:06FORECAST2021197-8845.9433.8439.89209.501105004390.00240.04241.661.7024FF13.94112.94104463.3539007996997.073154225630.76242521612121874111123DRYL
2021-04-09 16:00:06FORECAST2021197-8845.8933.8439.865209.126893086040.00240.03241.591.6224FF13.89111.89104463.2259541679196.8730045919510.76058374062896874111123DRYL
2021-04-09 12:00:07FORECAST2021197-8842.632.6537.625210.024188164170.00110.02111.571.5911FF10.6109.6104463.5325442464997.3530462930390.62442488549119873111122.5DRYL
2021-04-09 08:00:06FORECAST2021197-8844.4733.138.785210.257099993280.00110.01111.611.6211FF12.4795.47104463.612011993397.4777171637610.70518995620532874111123DRYL
2021-04-09 04:00:08FORECAST2021197-8845.1633.3939.275210.007389915970.00110.01111.61.6111FF13.16107.16104463.5268109939897.3440557329170.73283302168329874111123DRYL
2021-04-08 23:56:56FORECAST2021197-8847.9533.340.625204.742820273020.01050.01051.211.2205FF15.95120.95104461.7179043827394.533425913870.82973468625255874111123DRYL
2021-04-08 20:00:06FORECAST2021197-8848.333.340.8204.330242213380.00840.00841.131.1384FF16.3122.3104461.5751177876194.3137556172110.84006973264003874111123DRYL
2021-04-08 16:00:06FORECAST2021197-8849.2533.8341.54205.135423689030.00180.00181.221.2218FF17.25123.25104461.8536392053294.7425419607040.8660164941594875111123.5DRYL
2021-04-08 12:00:06FORECAST2021197-8841.5435.2238.38204.637655181810.00080.00081.171.1708FF9.54126.54104461.6815226534594.4774242365680.57579122547891873111122.5DRYL
2021-04-08 08:01:47FORECAST2021197-8838.2235.2636.74204.764699343860.00020.00021.191.1902FF6.22122.22104461.7254721982594.5450774940780.41938952822359872111122DRYL
2021-04-08 04:00:08FORECAST2021197-8835.5432.634.07205.52947302588001.221.22FF3.54124.54104461.9897378891394.9525073717160.30083878641651872111122DRYL