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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 14, 2021

[ Tuesday, April 13, 2021 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 15, 2021 ]

DAY 196 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/15/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 49.19°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.62°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.41°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.802
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 101

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.59 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.59 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 200 in
SWE DAY: 103
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.38 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 91.67 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -89

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-15 04:00:08OBSERVATION2021196-8949.1933.6241.405199.54520458333001.591.59FF17.19101.19103459.3827492017 91.6676246715070.8021965572111589 4111123DRYL
2021-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2021196-8840.4640.4640.46199.9537520.00010.00011.591.5901FF8.4692.46104460.0512372721891.9889710048140.49313583641372892111122DRYL
2021-04-14 12:00:03FORECAST2021196-8846.2835.4540.865200.374953481660.00720.00721.591.5972FF14.2898.28104460.1986361525392.2122803113870.71244893661388894111123DRYL
2021-04-14 08:00:03FORECAST2021196-8847.1832.9940.085200.365783597120.01340.01341.591.6034FF15.1899.18104460.1954288429492.2074177079280.7421237498365894111123DRYL
2021-04-14 03:59:47FORECAST2021196-8848.1529.6638.905200.847426523610.01150.01151.591.6015FF16.15100.15104460.3637898966792.4628824654030.77223214283386894111123DRYL
2021-04-13 23:56:30FORECAST2021196-8946.5629.2437.9202.42758005310.00780.01781.591.6078FF14.5695.56103460.3931631139393.1962738821430.72185179938577894111123DRYL
2021-04-13 20:00:02FORECAST2021196-8946.526.5336.515202.403647438310.00550.01551.591.6055FF14.595.5103460.3848039785493.1835635504270.71984956480595894111123DRYL
2021-04-13 16:00:02FORECAST2021196-8947.0528.2837.665202.368527064790.00580.01581.591.6058FF15.0596.05103460.3725362853593.1649120691460.73793747756374894111123DRYL
2021-04-13 12:00:06FORECAST2021196-8947.0729.938.485202.337176190480.00430.01431.591.6043FF15.0796.07103460.3615843694793.1482630078940.73858377623013894111123DRYL
2021-04-13 08:00:05FORECAST2021196-8946.7329.538.115202.428010347460.00480.01481.591.6048FF14.7389.73103460.3933134016293.1965024091640.72748664937403894111123DRYL
2021-04-13 04:00:08FORECAST2021196-8946.6329.5138.07202.424531995550.00530.00531.591.5953FF14.6397.63103460.3920985227893.194655077920.72417889341061894111123DRYL
2021-04-13 00:00:06FORECAST2021196-8946.4829.2137.845205.331525971950.00490.00491.591.5949FF14.4883.48103461.4036852565194.7407227827990.71918060647953894111123DRYL
2021-04-12 20:00:06FORECAST2021196-8946.9829.6538.315205.301346924240.0050.0151.591.605FF14.9893.98103461.3932217603394.7246498891080.73566900906211894111123DRYL
2021-04-12 12:00:06FORECAST2021196-8946.8429.1638205.160029843660.00460.01461.591.6046FF14.8493.84103461.3442144873794.6493928124310.73110231383099894111123DRYL
2021-04-12 07:59:48FORECAST2021196-8946.7629.0537.905205.64603341640.00560.01561.591.6056FF14.7693.76103461.5126816469994.9082523520710.72847512613446894111123DRYL
2021-04-12 03:56:30FORECAST2021196-8946.4728.7637.615205.617276830870.0060.0161.591.606FF14.4794.47103461.5027193178594.8929323961770.71884583826762894111123DRYL
2021-04-12 00:00:06FORECAST2021196-8945.4827.7336.605206.290880565680.00360.01361.571.5836FF13.4886.48103461.7358891924995.2519031702960.68478870365027893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-11 19:56:38FORECAST2021196-8945.4627.8236.64206.284329090670.00510.00511.581.5851FF13.4695.46103461.7336233011895.2484107012890.68408284433472893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-11 16:01:52FORECAST2021196-8945.2627.8736.565206.281931907630.0060.0061.581.586FF13.2696.26103461.7327942027195.2471328132450.6769876865804893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-11 12:00:06FORECAST2021196-8941.6428.3835.01206.445124960630.0090.0091.581.589FF9.6493.64103461.7892252230495.3341343066410.53980066333766893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-11 08:00:05FORECAST2021196-8939.2428.3633.8206.563556605220.01060.01061.581.5906FF7.2484.24103461.8301634154795.397281102670.44499539871467892111122DRYL
2021-04-11 04:00:07FORECAST2021196-8945.2528.436.825206.32106359950.01130.01131.581.5913FF13.2596.25103461.7463278010995.2679934650850.67663120545515893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-11 00:00:05FORECAST2021196-8943.3127.8235.565205.519754581620.01420.01421.311.3242FF11.3186.31103461.4689286381594.8409809607570.60476959201798893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-10 19:56:50FORECAST2021196-8944.0927.6735.88204.378173161850.01150.01151.431.4415FF12.0993.09103461.0727567149394.2332077120940.63425467579381893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-10 16:00:05FORECAST2021196-8942.073036.035204.465381342120.02970.02971.431.4597FF10.0790.07103461.1030617938394.2796133676930.55670387910501893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-10 12:00:06FORECAST2021196-894126.1933.595205.385391462250.03090.03091.421.4509FF987103461.4223591789494.76941186940.51451785676047893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-10 08:00:06FORECAST2021196-8936.3728.5332.45206.237790950280.02550.03551.521.5555FF4.3780.37103461.7175265477495.2236027182310.33606644990588892111122DRYL
2021-04-10 04:00:08FORECAST2021196-8936.3928.4532.42207.05645176340.02480.03481.611.6448FF4.3984.39103462.0004099584595.6601655992320.33679098105594892111122DRYL
2021-04-10 00:00:06FORECAST2021196-8945.9329.4937.71210.881418812560.01840.04841.831.8784FF13.9388.93103463.3143380371797.7043849614830.70048854107695894111123DRYL
2021-04-09 20:00:06FORECAST2021196-8944.9329.6437.285210.301216045220.00890.04892.022.0689FF12.9398.93103463.1158509036397.3938266148490.66513974937672893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-09 16:00:06FORECAST2021196-8944.9329.6637.295209.926178544460.00960.04961.941.9896FF12.9397.93103462.9873949896397.1931745444280.66513974937672893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-09 12:00:07FORECAST2021196-8943.3728.7336.05210.569240518120.00080.06081.91.9608FF11.3799.37103463.207578321297.5372679693310.60706153033483893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-09 08:00:06FORECAST2021196-8943.7928.7336.26210.974594053230.00080.07081.921.9908FF11.7982.79103463.3461859990497.7542734972620.62299719858372893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-09 04:00:08FORECAST2021196-8944.5429.937.22210.781135157360.00050.04051.941.9805FF12.5493.54103463.2800519456997.6506952448740.65092369293531893111122.5DRYL
2021-04-08 23:56:56FORECAST2021196-8947.0131.839.405205.538438750870.00230.02231.561.5823FF15.01105.01103461.4754032016394.8509338959930.73664243102998894111123DRYL
2021-04-08 20:00:06FORECAST2021196-8947.1131.839.455205.080837350610.00230.00231.51.5023FF15.11106.11103461.3167436741394.6072240765470.73987391683185894111123DRYL
2021-04-08 16:00:06FORECAST2021196-8948.2831.0439.66205.70960213970.00250.00251.591.5925FF16.28106.28103461.5347015871894.9421198371650.77611157838621894111123DRYL
2021-04-08 12:00:06FORECAST2021196-8949.8133.2241.515204.983523156970.00110.00111.541.5411FF17.81116.81103461.2829791181794.5554102319860.81887073769012894111123DRYL
2021-04-08 08:01:47FORECAST2021196-8949.8133.2241.515204.976034010530.00110.00111.561.5611FF17.81115.81103461.2803803054694.5514229218830.81887073769012894111123DRYL
2021-04-08 04:00:08FORECAST2021196-8948.1432.240.17205.587693025880.00130.00131.591.5913FF16.14121.14103461.4924696503694.8771721842310.77193216850364894111123DRYL
2021-04-08 00:00:06FORECAST2021196-8946.7632.0239.39212.906361050090.00160.00161.781.7816FF14.76108.76103464.0047825214898.7895697564870.72847512613446894111123DRYL
2021-04-07 20:00:06FORECAST2021196-8946.7732.0239.395211.169633240120.0010.0012.492.491FF14.77118.77103463.4128273874797.8587167981770.72880422159307894111123DRYL
2021-04-07 16:00:06FORECAST2021196-8946.332.3539.325211.50056671389002.492.49FF14.3118.3103463.5258259094998.0359748663780.71312552033503894111123DRYL
2021-04-07 12:00:06FORECAST2021196-8934.4228.6131.515213.847551386860.00180.02182.322.3418FF2.42106.42103464.3244932626899.2946559331680.26867933064753892111122DRYL
2021-04-07 08:00:06FORECAST2021196-8931.7428.9730.355213.692669131060.00180.01182.312.3218FF-0.2693.74103464.2719341964399.2115088210720.18863728181923891111121.5DRYL
2021-04-07 04:00:09FORECAST2021196-8931.7429.8930.815213.821768880330.00110.00112.332.3311FF-0.2694.74103464.3157454413699.2808140092580.18863728181923891111121.5DRYL