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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 10, 2021

[ Friday, April 9, 2021 | Index | Today | Sunday, April 11, 2021 ]

DAY 192 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/11/2021 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.12°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.42°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.77°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.046
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 69

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.28 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.78 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.38 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 207 in
SWE DAY: 99
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.89 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 95.18 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -93

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-11 04:00:06OBSERVATION2021192-9325.1200418.4200821.77006206.963168750.279999999999970.779999999999972.63.38TF-6.8799669.1200499459.88626028019 95.1795176921750.04625910101957389 1113124.5DRYL
2021-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2021192-9218.6618.6618.66206.020705458850.00360.50362.63.1036FF-13.3462.66100460.0801909882694.7860455150440.0088670548977779891113124.5DRYL
2021-04-10 12:00:02FORECAST2021192-9224.417.2720.835205.703615505750.12750.62752.63.2275FF-7.668.4100459.9691450325794.6173161542870.039294819457118891113124.5DRYL
2021-04-10 08:00:03FORECAST2021192-9223.1613.8218.49206.350010672270.22680.72682.63.3268FF-8.8467.16100460.19542013694.9613298563930.029309916113403891113124.5DRYL
2021-04-10 04:00:08FORECAST2021192-9222.4413.9318.185207.312348150890.31680.81682.63.4168TF-9.5666.44100460.5316055199795.4738885380460.024546575746413891113124.5DRYL
2021-04-10 00:00:02FORECAST2021192-9324.513.9419.22211.624088482150.5971.0372.63.637TF-7.559.599461.5105348755697.6667462679480.040207862191701891114126DRYL
2021-04-09 20:00:03FORECAST2021192-9321.9115.1218.515210.956199114760.66531.21532.63.8153TF-10.0968.9199461.2789620996697.3096565761450.021469886426327891114126DRYL
2021-04-09 16:00:02FORECAST2021192-9322.3215.5918.955210.594680422110.59411.14412.63.7441TF-9.6869.3299461.1534511929397.1164636795270.023819423473146891114126DRYL
2021-04-09 12:00:06FORECAST2021192-9322.8714.1218.495211.001148489280.55011.10012.63.7001TF-9.1369.8799461.2945594259797.3336818307380.027306490208835891114126DRYL
2021-04-09 08:00:06FORECAST2021192-9321.9915.0418.515211.09134801450.54891.10892.63.7089TF-10.0165.9999461.3258530755897.3818961996650.021912328764304891114126DRYL
2021-04-09 04:00:08FORECAST2021192-9322.415.2918.845211.278167396680.56541.12542.63.7254TF-9.668.499461.3906450340797.4817699367690.024302153905871891114126DRYL
2021-04-08 23:56:55FORECAST2021192-9323.1813.2118.195206.45555667240.57760.73762.63.3376FF-8.8270.1899459.7081996144294.9093122582610.029452457866698891113124.5DRYL
2021-04-08 20:00:06FORECAST2021192-9321.3815.0718.225206.178573362460.52910.68912.63.2891FF-10.6268.3899459.6109422777594.7619283806030.018725022752291891113124.5DRYL
2021-04-08 16:00:06FORECAST2021192-9322.7915.0818.935206.70585752820.58510.77512.63.3751TF-9.2169.7999459.7960290878495.0425324806640.026774312889751891113124.5DRYL
2021-04-08 12:00:06FORECAST2021192-9322.5515.519.025206.605913780690.57530.72532.63.3253FF-9.4569.5599459.7609659613894.9893344931460.025229368107681891113124.5DRYL
2021-04-08 08:01:47FORECAST2021192-9322.9815.5719.275206.766064281510.56780.74782.63.3478FF-9.0264.9899459.81714704495.074581783440.028052575326448891113124.5DRYL
2021-04-08 04:00:08FORECAST2021192-9323.0815.619.34207.322590663510.55690.78692.63.3869TF-8.9271.0899460.0121998968695.3709210194360.02874545087259891113124.5DRYL
2021-04-08 00:00:06FORECAST2021192-9323.613.8818.74214.435667938560.54821.17822.393.5682TF-8.461.699462.4810785629699.1724389905910.032580849373797891114126DRYL
2021-04-07 20:00:04FORECAST2021192-9324.513.9819.24212.685700527680.69281.41282.884.2928TF-7.572.599461.8778129269998.2348062005720.040207862191701891114126WETL
2021-04-07 16:00:04FORECAST2021192-9325.4814.5320.005212.860958724530.66351.41352.884.2935TF-6.5272.4899461.9383505198998.3286401632920.050093692660011891114126WETL
2021-04-07 12:00:06FORECAST2021192-9326.3413.0219.68214.596486950660.59181.24182.884.1218TF-5.6675.3499462.5363832271699.2586829274110.060278895464242891114126WETL
2021-04-07 08:00:04FORECAST2021192-9325.5816.2420.91214.334078072250.59931.23932.874.1093TF-6.4267.5899462.446130791399.1179651012320.051202648937761891114126WETL
2021-04-07 04:00:09FORECAST2021192-9327.3815.2721.325214.466717124530.58161.24162.894.1316TF-4.6269.3899462.4917579459299.1890890238140.074674786384572891114126WETL
2021-04-07 00:00:06FORECAST2021192-9326.7615.8221.29215.967026140110.50781.14782.874.0178TF-5.2454.7699463.0067876729999.9941990164190.065807710949155891114126WETL
2021-04-06 20:00:06FORECAST2021192-9326.7516.5721.66215.462845370850.51661.08662.853.9366TF-5.2571.7599462.8339301828799.7235155313750.065671669228221891114126DRYL
2021-04-06 16:00:07FORECAST2021192-9326.7416.9221.83215.471460901120.53241.11242.813.9224TF-5.2673.7499462.8368858616999.7281399555460.065535844899345891114126DRYL
2021-04-06 12:00:06FORECAST2021192-9326.8615.5221.19215.310369916030.57481.12482.783.9048TF-5.1472.8699462.7816106306899.6416797752270.067180127106782891114126DRYL
2021-04-06 08:00:06FORECAST2021192-9326.5417.0521.795215.655337725320.56121.11122.83.9112TF-5.4661.5499462.8999519734299.8268454758610.062864711763546891114126DRYL
2021-04-06 04:00:08FORECAST2021192-9327.0214.9120.965215.862051550970.59171.14172.793.9317TF-4.9874.0299462.9708155642599.9378300559260.06942172900839891114126DRYL
2021-04-06 00:00:06FORECAST2021192-9326.5212.9919.755219.457691117760.7371.2372.814.047TF-5.4862.5299464.19750346797101.871712333710.062602316853387891114126WETL
2021-04-05 20:00:07FORECAST2021192-9326.5614.4520.505219.301126348170.73221.16222.854.0122TF-5.4472.5699464.14432281895101.78737278230.063127959863284891114126WETL
2021-04-05 16:00:06FORECAST2021192-9325.714.4420.07219.800368499870.77761.22762.854.0776TF-6.372.799464.31382756294102.056350397920.052558996457785891114126WETL
2021-04-05 12:00:06FORECAST2021192-9325.0516.1820.615216.867819350880.58020.86022.843.7002TF-6.9573.0599463.31507251856100.47812944950.04554101522167891113124.5DRYL
2021-04-05 08:00:06FORECAST2021192-9325.2916.4820.885217.161422766170.56140.85142.843.6914TF-6.7159.2999463.41540217302100.635948067650.04803932065926891113124.5DRYL
2021-04-05 04:00:08FORECAST2021192-9324.6116.4420.525215.58077110980.53480.84482.793.6348TF-7.3966.6199462.8743806503499.7868159075740.041231972729517891113124.5DRYL
2021-04-04 23:56:52FORECAST2021192-9328.2520.8824.565214.416040135190.35720.61722.793.4072FF-3.7572.2599462.4743271357299.1619138886290.088611542221075891113124.5DRYL
2021-04-04 20:00:06FORECAST2021192-9326.7118.4722.59215.635923574610.42280.68282.823.5028TF-5.2973.7199462.8932946946399.8164231179720.065129674331665891113124.5DRYL
2021-04-04 16:00:06FORECAST2021192-9326.7118.6622.685215.760051919960.42280.69282.853.5428TF-5.2972.7199462.9358537088699.8830638318340.065129674331665891113124.5DRYL
2021-04-04 12:00:06FORECAST2021192-9324.2614.0419.15220.630453102510.87551.10552.743.8455TF-7.7470.2699464.59518592379102.503846379610.038044891380125891114126DRYL
2021-04-04 08:00:06FORECAST2021192-9324.2614.0419.15220.96946717770.87551.08552.773.8555TF-7.7468.2699464.70992472514102.68670445870.038044891380125891114126DRYL
2021-04-04 04:00:08FORECAST2021192-9326.6113.9720.29221.576195055370.91021.10022.783.8802TF-5.3973.6199464.91502438067103.014102126340.06378982313082891114126DRYL
2021-04-04 00:00:06FORECAST2021192-9328.2618.5823.42218.474853171270.45111.07112.633.7011TF-3.7458.2699463.86331046711101.342468645840.088782257951677891114126DRYL
2021-04-03 20:00:06FORECAST2021192-9328.518.5723.535219.55959487770.44051.15052.583.7305TF-3.567.599464.23210594886101.926613111350.092952977682952891114126DRYL
2021-04-03 16:00:06FORECAST2021192-9329.5121.3325.42219.440713361680.54721.27722.643.9172TF-2.4970.5199464.19173762398101.86256604080.11208991849587891114126DRYL
2021-04-03 12:00:07FORECAST2021192-9326.3417.8522.095216.099962563280.30650.47652.833.3065FF-5.6681.3499463.05232782579100.065590707990.060278895464242891112123DRYL
2021-04-03 08:00:07FORECAST2021192-9326.2923.4324.86215.199854657480.16350.33352.883.2135FF-5.7175.2999462.743676391699.5823719031430.059645586806441891112123DRYL
2021-04-03 03:57:09FORECAST2021192-9328.2127.1427.675214.103036623790.07390.17392.953.1239FF-3.7976.2199462.3666169987698.9940967329020.087931115848717891112123DRYL