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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 7, 2021

[ Tuesday, April 6, 2021 | Index | Today | Thursday, April 8, 2021 ]

DAY 189 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/08/2021 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.95°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.24°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.59°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.240
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 69

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.25 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.88 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.13 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 202 in
SWE DAY: 96
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 92.39 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -96

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-04-08 04:00:08OBSERVATION2021189-9633.9499425.2399229.59493202.317508750.250.253.884.13TF1.9499468.9499496456.64691368746 92.3876659556220.2396833687881291 1112123WETL
2021-04-08 00:00:05FORECAST2021189-9525.8925.8925.89207.16617548910.03730.03733.883.9173TF-6.1160.8997458.905049341895.0696039847770.061448741496444911111121.5DRYL
2021-04-07 12:00:03FORECAST2021189-9535.7820.9328.355206.715776883660.53170.53173.884.4117TF3.7870.7897458.7459463961694.8300247015130.30227914979063912113126WETL
2021-04-07 08:00:03FORECAST2021189-9531.2621.1126.185206.579199429190.52120.52123.884.4012TF-0.7466.2697458.6976645436894.757396321470.16209276156258911113124.5WETL
2021-04-07 04:00:08FORECAST2021189-9530.5922.0726.33206.588300773090.54170.54173.884.4217TF-1.4165.5997458.7008825044494.7622358797070.14564294866113911113124.5WETL
2021-04-07 00:00:06FORECAST2021189-9631.2421.926.57208.572678736780.51870.51873.884.3987TF-0.7651.2496458.8734269304495.7084598560070.16158489325423911113124.5WETL
2021-04-06 20:00:02FORECAST2021189-9632.4822.0927.285208.436400036140.49440.50443.884.3844TF0.4866.4896458.8252948442595.6358927028540.19502357533601911113124.5WETL
2021-04-06 16:00:06FORECAST2021189-9633.8222.1527.985208.187972924470.44620.45623.884.3362TF1.8267.8296458.7375103355895.5036323811830.23552389127988911112123WETL
2021-04-06 12:00:03FORECAST2021189-9632.9222.0927.505207.652964386790.41630.42633.884.3063TF0.9266.9296458.5482708588495.2189077582770.20783200713193911112123WETL
2021-04-06 08:00:05FORECAST2021189-9632.622.0627.33207.980674513650.440.453.884.33TF0.661.696458.6642167074395.3932931660880.1984683984235911112123WETL
2021-04-06 04:00:08FORECAST2021189-9632.5622.0727.315207.872591154560.43040.44043.884.3204TF0.5666.5696458.6259868192595.3357722509370.19731607470852911112123WETL
2021-04-06 00:00:06FORECAST2021189-9632.821.7827.29210.009021202630.4510.4613.884.341TF0.854.896459.3797148390796.4738842736950.20429053241636911112123WETL
2021-04-05 20:00:06FORECAST2021189-9631.8821.526.69210.316892922590.49290.50293.884.3829TF-0.1263.8896459.4879945517596.6380873493530.1783497352025911113124.5WETL
2021-04-05 16:00:06FORECAST2021189-9632.2221.626.91210.301124876860.48410.50413.884.3841TF0.2264.2296459.4824509241896.6296762905340.18768525775856911113124.5WETL
2021-04-05 12:00:05FORECAST2021189-9632.0821.0726.575210.28695036670.47070.49073.884.3707TF0.07999999999999864.0896459.4774673520496.6221153716760.18380531792165911113124.5WETL
2021-04-05 08:00:06FORECAST2021189-9631.9320.9426.435210.446306777780.46530.48533.884.3653TF-0.0758.9396459.5334846501196.707124685340.1797039954619911112123WETL
2021-04-05 04:00:08FORECAST2021189-9631.5321.1926.36209.701261945160.43310.44313.884.3231TF-0.4761.5396459.2713900191196.3097900623160.16905031781826911112123WETL
2021-04-04 23:56:52FORECAST2021189-9632.2521.5426.895211.107235873810.38540.39543.924.3154TF0.2558.2596459.7655739425297.0598394649420.18852319454784911112123WETL
2021-04-04 20:00:06FORECAST2021189-9632.5621.8727.215211.220088416040.41940.42943.924.3494TF0.5659.5696459.8051638738397.1200873675830.19731607470852911112123WETL
2021-04-04 16:00:06FORECAST2021189-9631.0521.8526.45211.288020671740.44670.45673.924.3767TF-0.9559.0596459.8289897962697.1563571015390.1568118098063911112123WETL
2021-04-04 12:00:06FORECAST2021189-9632.3323.7128.02210.595748963120.34180.35183.924.2718TF0.3360.3396459.5859962810796.7868570997710.19076892127096911112123WETL
2021-04-04 08:00:06FORECAST2021189-9632.8123.8328.32210.580839567260.31890.32893.974.2989TF0.8162.8196459.5807582491896.7789019210710.20458427853472911112123WETL
2021-04-04 04:00:08FORECAST2021189-9633.0123.8428.425210.987952676780.30620.31623.994.3062TF1.0164.0196459.7237157272196.9961655782480.21051170260457911112123WETL
2021-04-04 00:00:06FORECAST2021189-9635.7523.5329.64212.308177259770.12380.13384.034.1638TF3.7553.7596460.1862959595997.7013136951050.30119651083263912112124WETL
2021-04-03 20:00:06FORECAST2021189-9636.3725.3930.88211.952909422560.04970.05974.054.1097TF4.3767.3796460.061969738897.5114730008140.32391492521708912111122WETL
2021-04-03 16:00:06FORECAST2021189-9636.425.430.9211.978202867640.04970.06974.14.1697TF4.466.496460.0708249069197.5249866555980.32503193224974912111122WETL
2021-04-03 12:00:07FORECAST2021189-9632.8822.1427.51212.10251095340.20510.24514.114.3551TF0.8863.8896460.1143365708497.5914061123310.20664751423652911112123WETL
2021-04-03 08:00:06FORECAST2021189-9631.7920.7926.29213.131574998190.25460.27464.144.4146TF-0.2157.7996460.4740135912898.1415517624450.17592828234889911112123WETL
2021-04-03 03:57:09FORECAST2021189-9629.8120.7825.295213.626078015880.31360.32364.164.4836TF-2.1954.8196460.64651744898.4061088740910.12795096656607911112123WETL
2021-04-03 00:00:06FORECAST2021189-9631.923.0127.455216.690209776410.42250.44254.214.6525TF-0.149.996461.71060065102100.048166911060.17889066761261911112123WETL
2021-04-02 20:00:06FORECAST2021189-9630.3823.0326.705216.71679721160.42420.45424.214.6642TF-1.6259.3896461.71979749463100.062435722220.14072591778143911112123WETL
2021-04-02 15:57:01FORECAST2021189-9630.7924.2927.54218.175327106090.40290.43294.264.6929TF-1.2155.7996462.22336629843100.845734138240.15043170805539911112123WETL
2021-04-02 12:00:06FORECAST2021189-9635.1327.1131.12218.085661540630.45530.51534.294.8053TF3.1362.1396462.19246235328100.797548911410.27922423474751912113126WETL
2021-04-02 08:00:07FORECAST2021189-9633.3626.4529.905218.464267358520.46550.55554.224.7755TF1.3648.3696462.32290396781101.001034498390.22112332053497911113124.5WETL
2021-04-02 04:00:07FORECAST2021189-9633.3726.4529.91218.454157035390.46550.55554.214.7655TF1.3760.3796462.31942227335100.995599673810.22143093170599911113124.5WETL
2021-04-02 00:00:06FORECAST2021189-9636.9626.9831.97220.455328858760.18570.20574.264.4657TF4.9646.9696463.00682664436102.072322231730.34616215052832912112124WETL
2021-04-01 20:00:07FORECAST2021189-9637.0427.0732.055220.5168740950.18570.21574.254.4657TF5.0462.0496463.02791215806102.105467807830.34922215845047912112124WETL
2021-04-01 16:00:06FORECAST2021189-9633.8926.0429.965221.198949837740.25330.32334.144.4633TF1.8952.8996463.26137203617102.472928994790.23775968789692911112123WETL
2021-04-01 12:00:07FORECAST2021189-9639.9627.6833.82219.795979153610.10180.22184.244.4618TF7.9659.9696462.7807252596101.717342641850.46606982992732912112124WETL
2021-04-01 08:00:06FORECAST2021189-9642.7628.7135.735219.185600064890.0040.0344.294.324TF10.7652.7696462.57107887895101.388919496750.58109346009864913111122.5WETL
2021-04-01 04:00:08FORECAST2021189-9643.2828.6935.985218.288115895540.0040.0144.264.274TF11.2864.2896462.26222985159100.906351203970.60199721124505913111122.5WETL
2021-04-01 00:00:05FORECAST2021189-9633.2526.7429.995219.791491864520.05640.06644.174.2364TF1.2544.2596462.77918519993101.714927518940.21775574465449911111121.5WETL
2021-03-31 20:00:07FORECAST2021189-9634.1826.7330.455220.393283343290.04440.05444.084.1344TF2.1854.1896462.9855663973102.038909118850.24714490526849911111121.5WETL
2021-03-31 16:00:06FORECAST2021189-9629.324.1726.735221.146894366120.14520.15524.094.2452TF-2.750.396463.24356881894102.444876579380.11722181642903911112123WETL
2021-03-31 12:00:07FORECAST2021189-9628.3425.9827.16219.770947284930.09140.21143.984.1914TF-3.6649.3496462.77213397511101.703870260780.09878273724945911112123WETL
2021-03-31 08:00:07FORECAST2021189-9627.9825.9926.985220.051849925130.07310.193144.1931TF-4.0236.9896462.86851233519101.855072411450.092444279472694911112123WETL
2021-03-31 04:00:08FORECAST2021189-9627.0326.1326.58219.89232902460.04060.200644.2006TF-4.9752.0396462.81378877435101.769201918290.077164984581783911112123WETL