MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 4, 2021

[ Wednesday, March 3, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, March 5, 2021 ]

DAY 155 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/05/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.88°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.38°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.63°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.817
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -19

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.19 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.21 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 13.60 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.81 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 210 in
SWE DAY: 63
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 440.91 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 92.64 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -129

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-03-05 07:00:07OBSERVATION2021155-12940.8799430.3835.62997210.102926250.190000000000050.2100000000000513.613.81TT8.87994-19.1200663440.91060436545 92.6366081918370.8167443421299392 4112126WETL
2021-03-05 03:00:08OBSERVATION2021155-12940.8799430.3835.62997210.102926250.190000000000050.2100000000000513.613.81TT8.87994-19.1200663440.91060436545 92.6366081918370.8167443421299392 4112126WETL
2021-03-04 11:00:02FORECAST2021155-12942.0531.1236.585212.071284678930.1370.15713.613.757TT10.05-17.9563441.6935345102993.6705152979730.85314805230045925112127WETL
2021-03-04 07:00:08FORECAST2021155-12939.7730.8335.3212.20916314960.13610.156113.613.7561TT7.77-20.2363441.7482302039793.7430222543990.7774529214628924112126WETL
2021-03-04 02:58:45FORECAST2021155-12940.0629.8434.95212.345851835220.13410.154113.613.7541TT8.06-19.9463441.802435011493.8149144053710.78815621556072924112126WETL
2021-03-03 23:00:02FORECAST2021155-12938.3431.7235.03215.691643899050.07680.096813.613.6968TT6.34-28.6663443.1233799454695.5780102705390.72040659286705924112126WETL
2021-03-03 19:00:03FORECAST2021155-12938.0529.9233.985215.783280560970.08270.102713.613.7027TT6.05-28.9563443.1594011137395.6263893837580.70802938669346924112126WETL
2021-03-03 15:00:03FORECAST2021155-12938.2930.5834.435215.899488010410.06980.089813.613.6898TT6.29-28.7163443.2050686798495.6877474115950.71829085130244924111123WETL
2021-03-03 11:00:06FORECAST2021155-12938.2632.5335.395215.466917026190.0410.06113.613.661TT6.26-28.7463443.0350072628495.4593871496010.71701771658105924111123WETL
2021-03-03 07:00:08FORECAST2021155-12938.1431.1334.635215.433722277550.08130.091313.613.6913TT6.14-28.8663443.0219493229295.4418675932930.71189777318439924112126WETL
2021-03-03 03:00:08FORECAST2021155-12938.5131.134.805215.64314889040.0470.05713.613.657TT6.51-32.4963443.1043138016695.552409515110.72754193543272924111123WETL
2021-03-02 23:00:06FORECAST2021155-12937.9830.4734.225219.934683497610.15740.177413.613.7774TT5.98-31.0263444.7825007010397.8230985169570.70500403909095924112126WETL
2021-03-02 19:00:06FORECAST2021155-12937.7931.4434.615219.720586627260.08740.107413.613.7074TT5.79-31.2163444.69921183497.7095716968470.69672054140216923112125WETL
2021-03-02 15:00:06FORECAST2021155-12937.6131.0234.315219.724430705260.08420.104213.613.7042TT5.61-32.3963444.7007076727897.711609827630.68877859918649923112125WETL
2021-03-02 11:00:04FORECAST2021155-12937.7331.3834.555220.100750689360.130.1513.613.75TT5.73-32.2763444.8470736758197.9111748580110.69408328217468923112125WETL
2021-03-02 06:58:53FORECAST2021155-12938.131.1134.605219.941059047670.13530.155313.613.7553TT6.1-30.963444.7849802499997.826479604680.71018147393525924112126WETL
2021-03-02 03:00:08FORECAST2021155-12937.8430.7934.315219.89947419370.10210.132113.613.7321TT5.84-31.1663444.7688065408697.8044266960930.69891046855291923112125WETL
2021-03-01 23:00:03FORECAST2021155-12937.8229.7633.79224.182765776410.10720.127213.6113.7372TT5.82-33.1863446.42577674515100.080965344610.69803535194422923112125WETL
2021-03-01 19:00:06FORECAST2021155-12936.1330.2833.205224.785790868620.22980.259813.6113.8698TT4.13-35.8763446.65760975631100.402284056560.6204155098019923112125WETL
2021-03-01 15:00:06FORECAST2021155-12936.4829.5132.995224.550769262680.17750.207513.6113.8175TT4.48-35.5263446.56729792016100.277030275530.63702398224061923112125WETL
2021-03-01 10:58:54FORECAST2021155-12936.9529.9533.45224.036321913610.14410.184113.6113.7941TT4.95-34.0563446.36942279014100.002963696610.6589227766429923112125WETL
2021-03-01 07:00:46FORECAST2021155-12938.1929.9534.07224.164091724440.15970.179713.6113.7897TT6.19-35.8163446.41859183545100.07101816770.71403638516754924112126WETL
2021-03-01 03:00:08FORECAST2021155-12938.7730.7834.775223.849668808310.0040.02413.6113.634TT6.77-39.2363446.2975652796399.9035621778010.73827714649101924111123WETL
2021-02-28 23:00:06FORECAST2021155-12938.6129.7334.17226.701634790560.00730.047313.1913.2373TT6.61-33.3963447.39180423069101.4244534110.73169658345257924111123WETL
2021-02-28 19:00:06FORECAST2021155-12938.8230.9134.865226.615604228780.00720.047213.1913.2372TT6.82-31.1863447.35891194328101.378510137160.74031647998496924111123WETL
2021-02-28 14:58:46FORECAST2021155-12938.8530.7734.81226.669868893950.0070.03713.1913.227TT6.85-32.1563447.37965993019101.40748886220.74153613658354924111123WETL
2021-02-28 10:58:57FORECAST2021155-12937.0631.1234.09226.818117567540.00630.046313.213.2463TT5.06-38.9463447.43632793984101.486665634650.66397488416541923111122.5WETL
2021-02-28 07:00:08FORECAST2021155-12936.5230.633.56227.114749183620.00670.036713.2513.2867TT4.52-42.4863447.54965123988101.645126788560.63890646271773923111122.5WETL
2021-02-28 02:58:57FORECAST2021155-12942.6830.6336.655227.26112046850.00670.036713.3413.3767TT10.68-33.3263447.60553856353101.723336221850.87059483557263925111123.5WETL
2021-02-27 23:00:06FORECAST2021155-12940.1429.0434.59224.809776216230.00710.047113.0413.0871TT8.14-40.8663446.66682358295100.41506865290.79105507466457924111123WETL
2021-02-27 19:00:06FORECAST2021155-12941.1927.9534.57224.914861383680.0160.09613.0213.116TT9.19-36.8163446.70718479989100.471084548360.8268979317318924112126WETL
2021-02-27 15:00:04FORECAST2021155-12940.6827.8934.285225.020424152470.02680.086813.0413.1268TT8.68-37.3263446.74771860926100.52736113060.81000439277623924111123WETL
2021-02-27 11:00:06FORECAST2021155-12941.4229.6935.555225.533577826480.03810.088113.0513.1381TT9.42-38.5863446.94460371562100.801015566220.83419414407494924111123WETL
2021-02-27 07:00:08FORECAST2021155-12941.6629.7935.725225.826064908010.03810.108113.0313.1381TT9.66-40.3463447.05670942622100.957057480450.84159292896149924112126WETL
2021-02-27 03:00:08FORECAST2021155-12940.8928.3334.61225.27873436830.52040.590413.0113.6004TT8.89-35.1163446.84685829575100.665094693320.81707948540505924113129WETL
2021-02-26 23:00:05FORECAST2021155-12942.3629.4335.895215.765284087010.21240.272412.2512.5224TT10.36-35.6463443.1523275977695.6168878579530.86192048783117925112127WETL
2021-02-26 19:00:06FORECAST2021155-12942.430.636.5215.379950012760.30210.332112.2212.5521TT10.4-35.663443.0007943936495.4134889521170.86302589912343925112127WETL
2021-02-26 15:00:06FORECAST2021155-12942.430.6436.52215.317710578780.30210.382112.1712.5521TT10.4-37.663442.9763047271795.38064377450.86302589912343925112127WETL
2021-02-26 11:00:06FORECAST2021155-12940.0629.7534.905219.770807701990.12530.385312.1912.5753TT8.06-43.9463444.7187531145397.73619957220.78815621556072924112126WETL
2021-02-26 07:00:08FORECAST2021155-12940.0629.734.88220.196849939770.12530.375312.312.6753TT8.06-46.9463444.8844281262597.9621496606580.78815621556072924112126WETL
2021-02-26 03:00:08FORECAST2021155-12940.2829.4834.88221.946169093510.00450.264512.6512.9145TT8.28-42.7263445.5628094937398.8909586576760.79607158610211924112126WETL
2021-02-25 23:00:07FORECAST2021155-12938.329.1833.74223.626836350660.06550.475513.0613.5355TT6.3-48.763446.2117348566499.7849186085330.71871461576032924112126WETL
2021-02-25 19:00:06FORECAST2021155-12938.0229.4133.715223.873025848070.06590.505913.0413.5459TT6.02-49.9863446.3065591124599.9159998443450.70673457659762924113129WETL
2021-02-25 15:00:06FORECAST2021155-12937.7730.534.135224.473357493590.06540.515413.1313.6454TT5.77-55.2363446.53753906681100.235780641250.69584258318036923113127.5WETL
2021-02-25 10:59:53FORECAST2021155-12929.626.9328.265229.829240731690.12660.296612.9813.2766TT-2.4-59.463448.58272260016103.097426540550.30387880217977922112124WETL
2021-02-25 07:00:08FORECAST2021155-12929.6627.1628.41230.430250332210.08790.257913.113.3579TT-2.34-59.3463448.81049114205103.419513825590.30651836811123922112124WETL
2021-02-25 03:00:08FORECAST2021155-12928.9728.5228.745232.122982276070.02960.199613.5913.7896TT-3.03-52.0363449.45013125614104.327704851550.27679801793527922112124WETL