MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 2, 2021

[ Monday, March 1, 2021 | Index | Today | Wednesday, March 3, 2021 ]

DAY 153 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/03/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.73°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.66°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.496
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -56

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.43 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 14.89 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 216 in
SWE DAY: 61
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 442.03 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 95.44 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -131

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-03-03 07:00:07OBSERVATION2021153-13133.5899425.7300629.66215.9132820833300.4314.8915.32TT1.58994-56.4100661442.03036956413 95.4402278731010.4958833071375891 2112124WETL
2021-03-03 03:00:07OBSERVATION2021153-13133.5899425.7300629.66215.9132820833300.4314.8915.32TT1.58994-56.4100661442.03036956413 95.4402278731010.4958833071375891 2112124WETL
2021-03-02 11:00:01FORECAST2021153-13131.6724.1527.91220.056293426080.01470.444714.8915.3347TT-0.33-58.3361443.6620242558297.6306205916470.40274234783281912112124WETL
2021-03-02 06:58:53FORECAST2021153-13131.5424.2227.88219.899002827440.01980.449814.8915.3398TT-0.46-58.4661443.6003910786697.5472836520590.39657184208193912112124WETL
2021-03-02 03:00:08FORECAST2021153-13132.2124.7628.485219.919944041440.02610.456114.8915.3461TT0.21-57.7961443.6085981620697.5583780841010.428617095545912112124WETL
2021-03-01 23:00:02FORECAST2021153-13132.2424.5828.41224.050057325010.01290.452914.8915.3429TT0.24-58.7661445.2187299214799.7512819610720.43006471211268912112124WETL
2021-03-01 19:00:03FORECAST2021153-13131.4624.2627.86224.049337253890.01780.457814.8915.3478TT-0.54-59.5461445.2184506701299.7508988058470.39278733269477912112124WETL
2021-03-01 15:00:03FORECAST2021153-13131.3624.0627.71224.069956671610.02190.461914.8915.3519TT-0.64-59.6461445.2264469005299.7618706660550.38807094673684912112124WETL
2021-03-01 10:58:54FORECAST2021153-13131.8323.9827.905223.971980446590.02890.468914.8915.3589TT-0.17-59.1761445.1884478913999.7097383461780.41037004081279912112124WETL
2021-03-01 07:00:46FORECAST2021153-13131.8223.5327.675224.112529584710.01290.452914.8915.3429TT-0.18-62.1861445.2429553930299.7845250129010.40989228333114912112124WETL
2021-03-01 03:00:08FORECAST2021153-13131.2923.3627.325224.208514310250.01280.452814.8915.3428TT-0.71-65.7161445.280168827699.8356051046520.38477922353226912112124WETL
2021-02-28 23:00:05FORECAST2021153-13131.5422.9327.235226.92438473240.03210.052114.8914.9421TT-0.46-59.4661446.32936486743101.283016510540.39657184208193912111122WETL
2021-02-28 19:00:05FORECAST2021153-13132.5823.3827.98226.920213205410.02650.046514.8914.9365TT0.58-58.4261446.32775886519101.280790201180.44653215592338912111122WETL
2021-02-28 14:58:46FORECAST2021153-13131.8723.0627.465226.955937391170.02090.040914.8914.9309TT-0.13-58.1361446.34151182026101.299856211760.41228239415561912111122WETL
2021-02-28 10:58:57FORECAST2021153-13130.3922.4626.425227.00230903550.02890.058914.8914.9489TT-1.61-60.6161446.35936193043101.324605817820.34327091754546912111122WETL
2021-02-28 07:00:08FORECAST2021153-13129.222.2625.73227.264193496530.01850.098514.8914.9885TT-2.8-62.861446.46013120288101.464401646180.29122989672936912112124WETL
2021-02-28 02:58:57FORECAST2021153-13129.9122.7126.31227.698144801630.02020.190214.8915.0802TT-2.09-62.0961446.62696176556101.696130612410.32184698889858912112124WETL
2021-02-27 23:00:06FORECAST2021153-13127.321.8124.555224.985968374110.02860.308614.4814.7886TT-4.7-65.761445.58125491364100.249530126090.21671884633155911112123WETL
2021-02-27 19:00:06FORECAST2021153-13129.621.1125.355225.058733495050.06380.323814.4814.8038TT-2.4-63.461445.60940438166100.288288183620.30831328414777912112124WETL
2021-02-27 15:00:03FORECAST2021153-13129.5920.825.195225.117909545440.0440.32414.4814.804TT-2.41-63.4161445.6322930296100.319810232770.30788088762568912112124WETL
2021-02-27 11:00:06FORECAST2021153-13130.1919.5424.865225.604858814220.03180.321814.4814.8018TT-1.81-63.8161445.82050909533100.579273010940.334278028243912112124WETL
2021-02-27 07:00:08FORECAST2021153-13130.1720.1125.14225.908146293190.0480.30814.4914.798TT-1.83-65.8361445.93761844765100.740940745910.33338384034527912112124WETL
2021-02-27 03:00:08FORECAST2021153-13130.119.925225.238949553870.03280.262814.514.7628TT-1.9-62.961445.67909926485100.384292156530.33026165482293912112124WETL
2021-02-26 23:00:04FORECAST2021153-13130.5320.7925.66215.786980397050.05320.303213.7214.0232TT-1.47-65.4761441.9803575856995.3736067582240.34961951448304912112124WETL
2021-02-26 19:00:06FORECAST2021153-13130.9622.2426.6215.53472978220.02420.284213.6813.9642TT-1.04-65.0461441.8804252777795.2405780582870.36937632338263912112124WETL
2021-02-26 15:00:06FORECAST2021153-13130.4121.225.805215.503286640340.07120.291213.6713.9612TT-1.59-66.5961441.8679641862995.2239985432240.34417520883938912112124WETL
2021-02-26 11:00:06FORECAST2021153-13129.0620.9425218.930735482190.1520.37213.6914.062TT-2.94-68.9461443.2204397315297.0345768511640.28535676148182912112124WETL
2021-02-26 07:00:08FORECAST2021153-13128.5621.4124.985219.578742065550.14190.361913.814.1619TT-3.44-72.4461443.4748230929897.37764379250.26485411581863912112124WETL
2021-02-26 03:00:08FORECAST2021153-13128.6121.4125.01221.66880676440.14590.315914.214.5159TT-3.39-68.3961444.2924577295198.4857789593220.26687024345791912112124WETL
2021-02-25 23:00:06FORECAST2021153-13129.8822.9826.43222.663972320410.08820.458214.4114.8682TT-2.12-70.1261444.6802443503799.0142696194610.32052652190758912112124WETL
2021-02-25 19:00:06FORECAST2021153-13129.822.926.35222.779409680690.1010.48114.3814.861TT-2.2-71.261444.7251634663699.0756093871860.31701639274768912112124WETL
2021-02-25 15:00:06FORECAST2021153-13125.1222.0123.565223.683024325770.10870.428714.5314.9587TT-6.88-75.8861445.076324328299.5560182815290.14654453104685911112123WETL
2021-02-25 10:59:53FORECAST2021153-13129.7320.2825.005228.508946190210.00970.229714.4814.7097TT-2.27-72.2761446.93817825962102.129372126280.31395845502552912112124WETL
2021-02-25 07:00:08FORECAST2021153-13129.8120.2925.05229.362973382280.00970.259714.5714.8297TT-2.19-71.1961447.2652941086102.586097747450.31745426863945912112124WETL
2021-02-25 03:00:08FORECAST2021153-13130.4320.4525.44231.238680658050.00750.257515.0615.3175TT-1.57-63.5761447.98125562698103.590594510720.34508039151074912112124WETL
2021-02-24 23:00:05FORECAST2021153-13128.9123.5126.21228.341289247390.10950.559514.7215.2795TT-3.09-70.0961446.87387768375102.039757361290.27912734879263912113126WETL
2021-02-24 19:00:05FORECAST2021153-13130.2222.9226.57231.036518960230.11040.640414.8215.4604TT-1.78-70.7861447.90425397599103.482239666090.33562107270504912113126WETL
2021-02-24 15:00:07FORECAST2021153-13130.2622.9226.59231.727385248290.11040.700414.8915.5904TT-1.74-71.7461448.16723575911103.852621696410.33741506565632912113126WETL
2021-02-24 11:00:06FORECAST2021153-13131.4223.727.56230.531809710280.09540.665414.8715.5354TT-0.58-66.5861447.71184189911103.211821141720.39089884657451912113126WETL
2021-02-24 07:00:08FORECAST2021153-13131.6523.5127.58231.966991265190.09540.615414.9815.5954TT-0.35-73.3561448.2583352877103.981137346230.40179141945542912113126WETL
2021-02-24 03:00:08FORECAST2021153-13135.126.8730.985231.341540739380.07180.551815.0115.5618TT3.1-62.961448.02041897252103.645734007810.56955749331982913113127.5WETL
2021-02-23 23:00:05FORECAST2021153-13128.9724.7626.865225.500961267520.00440.304414.6814.9844TT-3.03-73.0361445.78037005676100.523901961990.28161117665542912112124WETL
2021-02-23 19:00:06FORECAST2021153-13133.9923.8128.9226.219026613040.00380.303814.6414.9438TT1.99-68.0161446.05756605295100.906708405880.51549222005646913112125WETL
2021-02-23 15:00:07FORECAST2021153-13131.620.3425.97227.523963967270.02320.383214.6515.0332TT-0.4-68.461446.56002084407101.603106091750.39941665199472912112124WETL
2021-02-23 11:00:35FORECAST2021153-13129.5924.3326.96230.479933606950.0010.07114.9515.021TT-2.41-62.4161447.69205100718103.184034192490.30788088762568912111122WETL
2021-02-23 03:00:08FORECAST2021153-13126.6126.3726.49230.912033030470.00330.093314.9315.0233TT-5.39-69.3961447.85681868285103.415528508610.19265695541472911112123WETL