Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 1, 2021

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DAY 152 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/02/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.00°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.08°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.54°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.787 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -77 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.91 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 14.50 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.41 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 220 in SWE DAY: 60 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 442.98 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 97.38 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -132 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 9.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-03-02 06:58:53	OBSERVATION	2021	152	-132	41	26.07998	33.53999	219.82075458333	0	0.91	14.5	15.41	T	T	9	-77	60	442.98215016237	97.37667051564	0.78743319984698	88	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-03-02 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	152	-132	41	26.07998	33.53999	219.82075458333	0	0.91	14.5	15.41	T	T	9	-77	60	442.98215016237	97.37667051564	0.78743319984698	88	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-03-01 10:58:51	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	39.94	27.93	33.935	223.8628835463	0.0116	0.9216	14.5	15.4216	T	T	7.94	-78.06	60	444.56455571359	99.521503364526	0.74836254674331	88	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-03-01 07:00:46	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	37.04	27.29	32.165	224.06357320799	0.011	0.921	14.5	15.421	T	T	5.04	-80.96	60	444.64269880474	99.628231895034	0.62501198750473	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-03-01 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	33.85	28.38	31.115	224.15966939499	0.0131	0.9231	14.5	15.4231	T	T	1.85	-84.15	60	444.68010194318	99.679344638114	0.47327241872825	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-02-28 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	37.28	29.26	33.27	226.80089664843	0.008	0.498	14.5	14.998	T	T	5.28	-77.72	60	445.70457063457	101.08619626023	0.63596377764438	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-02-28 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	37.17	29.23	33.2	226.83395932604	0.0075	0.4975	14.5	14.9975	T	T	5.17	-77.83	60	445.71735134848	101.10383154669	0.63095736007437	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-02-28 14:58:46	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	37.52	29.45	33.485	226.87435292339	0.0109	0.5009	14.5	15.0009	T	T	5.52	-77.48	60	445.73296444728	101.1253778856	0.64680567720416	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-02-28 10:58:57	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	36.9	29.11	33.005	226.88402183723	0.0236	0.5136	14.5	15.0136	T	T	4.9	-78.1	60	445.73670147788	101.13053551176	0.6185759404588	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-02-28 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	36.45	28.66	32.555	227.18355832404	0.023	0.563	14.5	15.063	T	T	4.45	-78.55	60	445.85242673715	101.29034079355	0.59767399850269	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-02-28 02:58:57	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	36.49	28.51	32.5	227.60865318667	0.0293	0.6493	14.5	15.1493	T	T	4.49	-78.51	60	446.01651012879	101.51721716943	0.59954426923011	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-02-27 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	35.39	26.54	30.965	224.84318487306	0.0383	0.3483	14.5	14.8483	T	T	3.39	-79.61	60	444.94588071981	100.04304891719	0.54742639142615	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-02-27 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	35.18	26.32	30.75	224.7385568373	0.0174	0.3274	14.5	14.8274	T	T	3.18	-79.82	60	444.90522696386	99.987358637229	0.53735396173663	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-02-27 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	35.33	26.37	30.85	224.89073173799	0.0308	0.3508	14.5	14.8508	T	T	3.33	-79.67	60	444.9643517261	100.068358657	0.5445513795133	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-02-27 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	34.2	24.59	29.395	225.43577285337	0.0723	0.3623	14.5	14.8623	T	T	2.2	-80.8	60	445.17593002678	100.35857984131	0.49013663936584	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-27 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	33.3	24.45	28.875	225.66069147949	0.0889	0.3389	14.5	14.8389	T	T	1.3	-82.7	60	445.26315534829	100.47839152624	0.44687953270821	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-27 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	34.59	24.94	29.765	225.08297839983	0.0903	0.3203	14.5	14.8203	T	T	2.59	-80.41	60	445.03901297019	100.17070654345	0.50894763859638	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-02-26 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	34.47	25.05	29.76	215.57764122882	0.0974	0.4374	13.62	14.0574	T	T	2.47	-82.53	60	441.30349218252	95.135165910747	0.50315981597504	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-02-26 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	34.19	25.72	29.955	215.43742174022	0.112	0.412	13.62	14.032	T	T	2.19	-82.81	60	441.24770922846	95.061268824959	0.48965441580707	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-26 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	32.82	25.11	28.965	215.2157507795	0.0573	0.3573	13.62	13.9773	T	T	0.82	-84.18	60	441.1594822229	94.944469180097	0.42403243186897	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-26 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	31.93	24.66	28.295	218.22085765242	0.0619	0.3819	13.62	14.0019	T	T	-0.07	-85.07	60	442.35132368872	96.530285239037	0.38239286761406	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-26 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	32.55	24.55	28.55	218.83313934169	0.0789	0.3489	13.76	14.1089	T	T	0.55	-88.45	60	442.59304427861	96.854025330285	0.41128721566572	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-26 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	34.08	24.55	29.315	220.87583552869	0.04	0.3	14.16	14.46	T	T	2.08	-83.92	60	443.3967595707	97.935629740892	0.48435110967116	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-25 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	33.02	23.69	28.355	222.21397802018	0.2076	0.4976	14.37	14.8676	T	T	1.02	-86.98	60	443.92100641123	98.645452761362	0.43352561140952	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-02-25 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	32.02	23.77	27.895	222.24283719639	0.2202	0.5202	14.33	14.8502	T	T	0.020000000000003	-87.98	60	443.9322930131	98.660772322328	0.38655094479181	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-02-25 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	32.07	23.12	27.595	223.0664200491	0.2334	0.4734	14.47	14.9434	T	T	0.07	-87.93	60	444.25404147779	99.098158624795	0.38886666099448	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-25 10:59:53	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	31.8	22.61	27.205	228.44964688868	0.1472	0.3572	14.43	14.7872	T	T	-0.2	-89.2	60	446.34060581965	101.96635379158	0.37641072745027	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-25 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	29.21	21.86	25.535	229.30246310787	0.174	0.384	14.53	14.914	T	T	-2.79	-87.79	60	446.66855136747	102.42219902138	0.26496714708531	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-25 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	31.11	21.86	26.485	231.18995907852	0.174	0.404	15	15.404	T	T	-0.89	-80.89	60	447.39185595906	103.43250487124	0.3451848476356	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-24 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	32.27	20.91	26.59	227.80410887838	0.3911	0.6411	14.62	15.2611	T	T	0.27	-85.73	60	446.09189510566	101.62156664241	0.39816828353937	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-02-24 19:00:04	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	30.24	20.64	25.44	230.3165870282	0.4739	0.6939	14.75	15.4439	T	T	-1.76	-87.76	60	447.05760334885	102.96478140831	0.30728777964018	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-02-24 15:00:07	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	31.24	20.65	25.945	230.98114773416	0.5061	0.7961	14.77	15.5661	T	T	-0.76	-88.76	60	447.31200815401	103.32064103868	0.35099550068078	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-02-24 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	32.29	21.8	27.045	230.22517771616	0.4449	0.8649	14.67	15.5349	T	T	0.29	-84.71	60	447.02257674753	102.91585217484	0.39910173187107	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-02-24 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	32.34	21.77	27.055	231.63864208422	0.4449	0.8249	14.77	15.5949	T	T	0.34	-91.66	60	447.56328558918	103.67295172063	0.40143786669432	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-02-24 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	31.89	23.8	27.845	231.39358340605	0.4045	0.7345	14.85	15.5845	T	T	-0.11	-85.11	60	447.46967951576	103.54161260871	0.3805491439999	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-02-23 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	28.53	22.56	25.545	225.48053008014	0.2863	0.4063	14.66	15.0663	T	T	-3.47	-89.47	60	445.19329122474	100.38241929347	0.23874592220303	88	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-23 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	28.53	22.38	25.455	226.22552963831	0.2863	0.3863	14.64	15.0263	T	T	-3.47	-89.47	60	445.48198472504	100.77939793875	0.23874592220303	88	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-23 15:00:07	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	28.31	20.75	24.53	227.30746702598	0.3504	0.4704	14.63	15.1004	T	T	-3.69	-86.69	60	445.90027285178	101.35646156813	0.23057646505639	88	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-02-23 11:00:35	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	33.5	24.12	28.81	230.47224523454	0.0634	0.3234	14.79	15.1134	T	T	1.5	-79.5	60	447.11723039718	103.04811197269	0.45645597270866	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-23 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	33.79	25.22	29.505	230.88349719802	0.0881	0.1781	14.93	15.1081	T	T	1.79	-83.21	60	447.27465282626	103.26833605256	0.47038537411983	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-02-22 22:59:13	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	30.02	18.65	24.335	231.26139108182	0.6187	1.0987	14.05	15.1487	T	T	-1.98	-91.98	60	447.41916127142	103.47077763229	0.29800194990434	88	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-02-22 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	30.02	19.03	24.525	230.30971207753	0.5534	1.0234	14.01	15.0334	T	T	-1.98	-88.98	60	447.05496925941	102.96110125296	0.29800194990434	88	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-02-22 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	30.17	20.82	25.495	228.48580978356	0.4312	0.8812	13.92	14.8012	T	T	-1.83	-87.83	60	446.35452647947	101.98567543322	0.30431939287945	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-02-22 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	29.9	24.71	27.305	232.57719081737	0.4958	0.6358	14	14.6358	T	T	-2.1	-94.1	60	447.92124850874	104.17626568557	0.29299141156124	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-02-22 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	29.9	26.9	28.4	232.52911317855	0.391	0.531	14.34	14.871	T	T	-2.1	-97.1	60	447.90293240483	104.15047166217	0.29299141156124	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-02-22 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	152	-132	31.17	29.75	30.46	235.67350803896	0.1109	0.2609	15.17	15.4309	T	T	-0.83	-87.83	60	449.096152102	105.84006561268	0.34786225603358	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L