MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 25, 2021

[ Wednesday, February 24, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, February 26, 2021 ]

DAY 148 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/24/2021 11:00:03 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.55°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.362
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -114

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.51 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.57 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.91 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 217 in
SWE DAY: 56
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 439.33 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 95.17 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -136

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-02-24 11:00:03FORECAST2021148-13630.214.8922.545216.630577838231.50672.566710.9113.4767TT-1.8-113.856439.3297006032995.172246903190.36214473229169221151210WETL
2021-02-24 07:00:07FORECAST2021148-13626.8215.521.16217.239550695161.51882.578810.9113.4888TT-5.18-117.1856439.5747861273395.4930290352230.23594020037057921115127.5WETL
2021-02-24 03:00:07FORECAST2021148-13627.0715.621.335217.398819496181.53092.590910.9113.5009TT-4.93-116.9356439.6388224918795.5769610144240.24437527290199921115127.5WETL
2021-02-23 23:00:05FORECAST2021148-13626.4416.421.42210.286823188291.66992.169910.9113.0799TT-5.56-117.5656436.7539396095191.8435984754540.22343151179938921115127.5WETL
2021-02-23 19:00:06FORECAST2021148-13626.6516.0421.345210.332488327991.64082.140810.9113.0508TT-5.35-117.3556436.7726297692591.8674740529260.23029713071848921115127.5WETL
2021-02-23 15:00:06FORECAST2021148-13626.7814.8220.8211.172465077861.68752.177510.9113.0875TT-5.22-117.2256437.1160351459692.3068706668320.23460561449123921115127.5WETL
2021-02-23 11:00:35FORECAST2021148-13626.914.7520.825215.048037721091.84932.349310.9113.2593TT-5.1-117.156438.6910204223994.33964310770.23862186014841921115127.5WETL
2021-02-23 03:00:07FORECAST2021148-13627.9314.8121.37216.871096128061.86622.646210.9113.5562TT-4.07-119.0756439.4265442239695.2989163136160.274589269515099221151210WETL
2021-02-22 22:59:13FORECAST2021148-13628.314.5421.42211.006013777171.71922.79929.912.6992TT-3.7-117.756437.0480435158192.2197654913820.288131918386079221151210WETL
2021-02-22 19:00:06FORECAST2021148-13628.1916.1122.15209.528224648551.62412.63419.912.5341TT-3.81-116.8156436.4431375508291.4471557710660.284072993601189221151210WETL
2021-02-22 15:00:04FORECAST2021148-13627.9615.6321.795209.39787675271.48142.54149.912.4414TT-4.04-117.0456436.3896729724791.3790709572410.275675537428239221151210WETL
2021-02-22 11:00:06FORECAST2021148-13627.5515.821.675215.243834382131.43142.43149.912.3314TT-4.45-118.4556438.7701791070194.4425757635270.261015188216319221151210WETL
2021-02-22 07:00:08FORECAST2021148-13626.8916.6321.76215.95593714361.24472.294710.3512.6447TT-5.11-120.1156439.0577435973994.8171264787280.23828574454524921115127.5WETL
2021-02-22 03:00:08FORECAST2021148-13626.6615.721.18219.45200379371.2732.29311.1713.463TT-5.34-119.3456440.4620200881596.6602729033650.23062697638514921115127.5WETL
2021-02-21 23:00:06FORECAST2021148-13626.0816.0121.045224.414160907591.41732.447311.2413.6873TT-5.92-117.9256442.4338965974299.2884316619870.21193664216688921115127.5WETL
2021-02-21 19:00:05FORECAST2021148-13626.416.4321.415225.402051551.56792.587911.1913.7779TT-5.6-115.656442.8235096884499.8133275583450.2221370813033921115127.5WETL
2021-02-21 15:00:06FORECAST2021148-13628.2616.0822.17224.938073455931.56132.641310.9113.5513TT-3.74-115.7456442.6406436355999.5667336126830.286652785803389221151210WETL
2021-02-21 11:00:06FORECAST2021148-13628.3817.2522.815227.7272763971.72542.825411.0913.9154TT-3.62-110.6256443.73670312077101.050950839080.291100927151139221151210WETL
2021-02-21 07:00:07FORECAST2021148-13626.9516.5421.745230.28049796951.79572.745711.1213.8657TT-5.05-119.0556444.73324540906102.413393216390.24030631751615921115127.5WETL
2021-02-21 03:00:07FORECAST2021148-13626.1718.3122.24234.502439896271.92452.974511.6914.6645TT-5.83-120.8356446.36698914043104.674148042580.21477752576966921115127.5WETL
2021-02-20 23:00:06FORECAST2021148-13628.3315.7822.055229.053335882851.9172.81711.6114.427TT-3.67-114.6756444.25508107628101.758108303430.289243623236339221151210WETL
2021-02-20 19:00:06FORECAST2021148-13626.8715.7821.325228.730103130461.89942.969411.4514.4194TT-5.13-114.1356444.12888508132101.585645687870.23761429077229921115127.5WETL
2021-02-20 15:00:04FORECAST2021148-13626.8715.8521.36226.569947121591.66812.768111.314.0681TT-5.13-115.1356443.282855429100.434573114460.23761429077229921115127.5WETL
2021-02-20 11:00:05FORECAST2021148-13629.2218.323.76226.724809272931.67542.605411.2413.8454TT-2.78-113.7856443.34366210192100.517007232420.323101362541869221151210WETL
2021-02-20 07:00:07FORECAST2021148-13629.218.323.75228.052484318781.67542.625411.3313.9554TT-2.8-112.856443.86399375921101.224286476450.322322737525639221151210WETL
2021-02-20 03:00:07FORECAST2021148-13630.1816.4223.3229.894916962921.61452.544511.4714.0145TT-1.82-109.8256444.58316412188102.207409598910.361331701304599221151210WETL
2021-02-19 23:00:06FORECAST2021148-13626.8516.1621.505222.958818456161.07872.028711.313.3287TT-5.15-110.1556441.8581417872198.5161692181120.23694387486707921115127.5WETL
2021-02-19 18:59:23FORECAST2021148-13626.8516.1621.505222.229277529671.07871.838711.2213.0587TT-5.15-111.1556441.5687228570798.1294982602280.23694387486707921115127.5WETL
2021-02-19 15:00:04FORECAST2021148-13622.6217.0619.84221.907821320060.89731.897310.9712.8673TT-9.38-117.3856441.4410264363197.9592164177740.11992969005285921115127.5WETL
2021-02-19 11:00:06FORECAST2021148-13624.6216.0220.32225.876975089371.04931.819311.2213.0393TT-7.38-116.3856443.01046657034100.065864121840.16898735139702921115127.5WETL
2021-02-19 07:00:08FORECAST2021148-13624.6316.0220.325229.165956439521.04931.889311.6213.5093TT-7.37-122.3756444.29902587444101.818211209660.16926112907281921115127.5WETL
2021-02-19 03:00:07FORECAST2021148-13625.1917.7521.47229.007355941561.07591.985911.7213.7059TT-6.81-115.8156444.23713598415101.733571922780.18504464489356921115127.5WETL
2021-02-18 23:00:07FORECAST2021148-13624.0716.8320.45224.903624929341.30832.258312.2914.5483TT-7.93-116.9356442.6270579628299.5484298276440.15436726313332921115127.5WETL
2021-02-18 19:00:06FORECAST2021148-13624.0816.8320.455221.326037738371.03411.934112.1114.0441TT-7.92-117.9256441.2096513578897.6511839469690.15462540506987921115127.5WETL
2021-02-18 15:00:06FORECAST2021148-13626.6719.5423.105216.839611327810.65241.492412.0813.5724TT-5.33-115.3356439.4138703742495.2823328639970.23095708540272921114126WETL
2021-02-18 11:00:06FORECAST2021148-13622.6118.9320.77214.627584398680.0150.77512.8413.615TT-9.39-118.3956438.520902140794.1186819347890.11971263449891921113124.5WETL
2021-02-18 07:00:08FORECAST2021148-13621.2818.9420.11215.79029648560.00170.761713.2514.0117TT-10.72-117.7256438.9909002678694.7299765232830.093262334446071921113124.5WETL
2021-02-18 03:00:07FORECAST2021148-13622.0521.7821.915216.974537275020.00020.670213.5614.2302TT-9.95-113.9556439.4681761516395.3534041675960.10799551153758921113124.5WETL