MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 24, 2021

[ Tuesday, February 23, 2021 | Index | Today | Thursday, February 25, 2021 ]

DAY 147 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/24/2021 11:00:03 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.80°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.87°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.84°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.329
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -121

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.36 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.11 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 12.47 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 208 in
SWE DAY: 55
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 435.22 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 90.55 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -137

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-02-24 11:00:03FORECAST2021147-13729.821.8725.835208.06152911450.01683.35689.1112.4668TT-2.2-121.255435.2235257216490.5532722682490.328665750348418921151210WETL
2021-02-24 07:00:07FORECAST2021147-13729.813.4421.62208.220426188910.0193.3599.1112.469TT-2.2-121.255435.2891684663290.6360961734750.328665750348418921151210WETL
2021-02-24 03:00:07FORECAST2021147-13730.4914.8622.675208.239034003630.02043.36049.1112.4704TT-1.51-120.5155435.2968538985590.6457963606560.357346517242348921151210WETL
2021-02-23 23:00:03FORECAST2021147-13729.913.0221.46200.175068543730.03332.80339.1111.9133TT-2.1-121.155431.9319968096686.4620170676030.332765256321098921151210WETL
2021-02-23 19:00:03FORECAST2021147-13729.7712.6421.205200.164939542320.03132.80139.1111.9113TT-2.23-121.2355431.9277267857886.4567873187290.327439877390618921151210WETL
2021-02-23 15:00:02FORECAST2021147-13729.5414.5522.045200.123410316940.02462.79469.1111.9046TT-2.46-121.4655431.9102184045286.4353458578480.318104018731748921151210WETL
2021-02-23 11:00:35FORECAST2021147-13729.5214.4221.97203.124233415470.02972.79979.1111.9097TT-2.48-121.4855433.1705981040787.9874456780110.317297526105858921151210WETL
2021-02-23 03:00:07FORECAST2021147-13729.5515.0922.32205.467919094850.04643.07649.1112.1864TT-2.45-124.4555434.1483128755789.2035504250840.318507588758478921151210WETL
2021-02-22 22:59:13FORECAST2021147-13729.6217.8423.73199.878189862520.07282.37289.1111.4828TT-2.38-123.3855431.8067978118286.3087611169590.321338584166248921151210WETL
2021-02-22 19:00:06FORECAST2021147-13729.5914.9522.27199.47197052560.05942.29949.1111.4094TT-2.41-122.4155431.6353348825986.0991507975060.320124017611478921151210WETL
2021-02-22 15:00:04FORECAST2021147-13730.314.722.5199.903111258120.07662.34669.1111.4566TT-1.7-121.755431.8173112360486.3216240111990.349359732288338921151210WETL
2021-02-22 11:00:06FORECAST2021147-13730.2914.7322.51205.365928238630.07592.28599.1111.3959TT-1.71-122.7155434.1058863964489.1505583136610.348941179361418921151210WETL
2021-02-22 07:00:08FORECAST2021147-13730.0614.5322.295207.700637678260.07692.78699.1111.8969TT-1.94-123.9455435.0743376464390.3652173666090.339366051507658921151210WETL
2021-02-22 03:00:08FORECAST2021147-13730.0314.4522.24210.428183880150.07783.57789.1112.6878TT-1.97-122.9755436.1984899777991.7884560572910.338124568052188921151210WETL
2021-02-21 23:00:06FORECAST2021147-13730.214.9322.565214.953511482430.05764.08768.6812.7676TT-1.8-120.855438.0464996715794.1596332969910.345182520129078921151210WETL
2021-02-21 19:00:05FORECAST2021147-13730.7714.2522.51214.580712013280.03594.02598.6812.7059TT-1.23-119.2355437.8950610012893.9638339767530.369230332991468921151210WETL
2021-02-21 15:00:06FORECAST2021147-13730.212.9221.56214.570869850560.043.818.6812.49TT-1.8-120.855437.8910609728893.9586658527350.345182520129078921151210WETL
2021-02-21 11:00:06FORECAST2021147-13730.2713.521.885215.774454812970.06134.01138.6812.6913TT-1.73-115.7355438.3794782770794.5910929264290.348104624815998921151210WETL
2021-02-21 07:00:07FORECAST2021147-13730.0816.0923.085216.637892404940.04953.59958.9712.5695TT-1.92-122.9255438.7289444028995.0453138524840.340194677261168921151210WETL
2021-02-21 03:00:07FORECAST2021147-13729.8212.921.36220.272675381080.11323.96329.2813.2432TT-2.18-124.1855440.1917043555596.9622043989560.329484024814028921151210WETL
2021-02-20 23:00:05FORECAST2021147-13730.3719.6725.02214.058437016340.13263.77269.2413.0126TT-1.63-119.6355437.6826610390993.6896663311820.352294705847678921151210WETL
2021-02-20 19:00:06FORECAST2021147-1373018.9324.465213.564492524310.17743.75749.2613.0174TT-2-11855437.4815231706293.4305194846990.33688484129088921151210WETL
2021-02-20 15:00:04FORECAST2021147-1373019.1224.56213.419487953820.18523.74529.1512.8952TT-2-11955437.422428301393.354470667580.33688484129088921151210WETL
2021-02-20 11:00:05FORECAST2021147-13730.4519.4224.935214.215672947840.12483.57489.112.6748TT-1.55-119.5555437.7466357463993.7721901570680.355659749911628921151210WETL
2021-02-20 07:00:07FORECAST2021147-13729.7820.7825.28215.224274070960.15723.65729.1212.7772TT-2.22-119.2255438.1563990390594.3018929127250.327848295986088921151210WETL
2021-02-20 03:00:07FORECAST2021147-13732.4517.1724.81215.331038051340.17683.68689.2112.8968TT0.45-116.5555438.199712517194.3579989701060.442795102264528921151210WETL
2021-02-19 23:00:06FORECAST2021147-13730.4820.3625.42212.655529566060.16123.56129.1912.7512TT-1.52-113.5255437.110726582892.9540130404690.356924562632198921151210WETL
2021-02-19 18:59:23FORECAST2021147-13730.4920.0325.26211.61365093280.05213.15219.3312.4821TT-1.51-114.5155436.6846548719892.4084341237870.357346517242348921151210WETL
2021-02-19 15:00:03FORECAST2021147-13730.1820.0325.105212.85508261690.17653.21659.2512.4665TT-1.82-116.8255437.1922043466893.0585827756770.344349315423958921151210WETL
2021-02-19 11:00:06FORECAST2021147-13730.4119.8425.125214.961732970180.07223.33229.1612.4922TT-1.59-117.5955438.0498377900494.1639522586520.353975802899058921151210WETL
2021-02-19 07:00:08FORECAST2021147-13730.4119.8425.125217.831044473780.07223.66229.312.9622TT-1.59-123.5955439.2105989782495.6737035193820.353975802899058921151210WETL
2021-02-19 03:00:07FORECAST2021147-13730.2218.2824.25217.870703974960.11683.61689.5113.1268TT-1.78-117.7855439.2265837710395.694605010710.346016475537878921151210WETL
2021-02-18 23:00:07FORECAST2021147-13729.5418.5624.05208.644700416420.11723.80729.9313.7372TT-2.46-118.4655435.4643127024490.857321065840.318104018731748921151210WETL
2021-02-18 19:00:06FORECAST2021147-13729.5918.5624.075208.196854414180.11723.57729.9313.5072TT-2.41-119.4155435.279432289190.623808593780.320124017611478921151210WETL
2021-02-18 15:00:06FORECAST2021147-13729.7217.4123.565209.069573053610.07063.360610.0613.4206TT-2.28-119.2855435.6395149246291.078967390570.325400886947578921151210WETL
2021-02-18 11:00:06FORECAST2021147-13727.9817.422.69214.425629032720.03044.19049.9114.1004TT-4.02-118.0255437.8320209171893.8824064958350.25802149030678921151210WETL
2021-02-18 07:00:08FORECAST2021147-13727.9917.422.695215.764203866470.03044.53049.9814.5104TT-4.01-116.0155438.3753247227194.5857029334990.258387086391148921151210WETL
2021-02-18 03:00:07FORECAST2021147-13728.7618.0223.39216.971837275020.06194.441910.2914.7319TT-3.24-113.2455438.8638992271195.2211065289850.287320458233968921151210WETL
2021-02-17 23:00:06FORECAST2021147-13721.8313.5117.67216.088355614020.52463.89469.8113.7046TT-10.17-123.1755438.5066145806194.7561732705950.089214383702281891115127.5WETL
2021-02-17 19:00:06FORECAST2021147-13721.8313.617.715215.789493650360.46684.06689.8413.9068TT-10.17-118.1755438.3855716287994.5990005254020.089214383702281891115127.5WETL
2021-02-17 15:00:06FORECAST2021147-13723.2816.6219.95214.948842720410.36584.05589.6213.6758TT-8.72-123.7255438.0446040127394.1571806924580.11873271872493891115127.5WETL
2021-02-17 11:00:06FORECAST2021147-13724.7621.5923.175203.371584708740.44141.63149.3110.9414TT-7.24-107.2455433.274060517188.1156323005510.15534252581852891115127.5WETL
2021-02-17 06:59:32FORECAST2021147-13724.7421.1222.93203.171409799020.31221.50229.5711.0722TT-7.26-111.2655433.1903361185788.0118913005210.15480293325157891115127.5WETL
2021-02-17 03:00:08FORECAST2021147-13721.4920.7621.125202.14831144910.16241.24249.6310.8724TT-10.51-110.5155432.761753456687.4820577210010.083157443649317891114126WETL