Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 28, 2021

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DAY 120 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/29/2021 07:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.77°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.65°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.21°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.361 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 4 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.10 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.45 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.47 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.92 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 124 in SWE DAY: 28 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 374.53 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 46.30 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -164 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-01-29 06:55:57	OBSERVATION	2021	120	-164	29.76998	24.65006	27.21002	123.63304857143	0.10000000000002	0.45000000000002	6.47	6.92	T	T	-2.23002	3.76998	28	374.53398504245	46.304778364404	0.36079983534748	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-29 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	120	-164	29.76998	24.65006	27.21002	123.63304857143	0.10000000000002	0.45000000000002	6.47	6.92	T	T	-2.23002	3.76998	28	374.53398504245	46.304778364404	0.36079983534748	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-28 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	31.77	24.91	28.34	125.29813011337	0.0751	0.4251	6.47	6.8951	T	T	-0.23	5.77	28	375.47667365411	47.046525110046	0.43304858797129	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-28 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	32	24.51	28.255	125.29534556517	0.0852	0.4352	6.47	6.9052	T	T	0	6	28	375.47510050343	47.045282468694	0.44155325367657	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-28 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	27.53	23.74	25.635	125.43432482508	0.11	0.46	6.47	6.93	T	T	-4.47	1.53	28	375.55360426412	47.107312786496	0.28550852033676	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-27 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	31.71	23.99	27.85	121.65321602541	0.1617	0.3917	6.47	6.8617	T	T	-0.29	9.71	28	373.40789864069	45.426271758931	0.43083490480338	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-27 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	32.66	24.11	28.385	121.38967012101	0.1632	0.3932	6.47	6.8632	T	T	0.66	10.66	28	373.25757183777	45.309613515555	0.466094506823	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-27 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	28.07	24.31	26.19	121.37927716248	0.1381	0.3681	6.47	6.8381	T	T	-3.93	6.07	28	373.25164162291	45.305014459898	0.3029722031876	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-27 10:55:44	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	32.61	24.13	28.37	121.58187190677	0.134	0.364	6.47	6.834	T	T	0.61	10.61	28	373.36721382905	45.39468476595	0.46422960606872	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-27 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	33.35	23.53	28.44	121.74594744255	0.1767	0.4267	6.47	6.8967	T	T	1.35	12.35	28	373.46076878956	45.467335128909	0.49188836469132	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-27 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	33.08	23.35	28.215	122.10137473315	0.1922	0.4922	6.47	6.9622	T	T	1.08	12.08	28	373.66329779844	45.624802348513	0.48178509676868	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-26 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	32.19	22.74	27.465	122.48034705713	0.1737	0.4937	6.47	6.9637	T	T	0.19	14.19	28	373.87904188581	45.79283480756	0.44859940577803	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-26 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	32.17	22.42	27.295	122.32919711467	0.1482	0.4082	6.47	6.8782	T	T	0.17	15.17	28	373.79301905637	45.725799908235	0.44785690204484	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-26 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	32.1	22.65	27.375	122.67707920997	0.2246	0.5146	6.47	6.9846	T	T	0.1	15.1	28	373.99095711993	45.880118270413	0.4452595941769	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-26 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	31.57	22.41	26.99	123.75345865253	0.2465	0.5765	6.47	7.0465	T	T	-0.43	14.57	28	374.60228921752	46.358328909823	0.4256782031961	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-26 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	31.21	22.49	26.85	123.56869623492	0.2522	0.6022	6.47	7.0722	T	T	-0.79	13.21	28	374.49747178099	46.27616433125	0.41247838476953	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-26 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	31.29	22.65	26.97	122.7171857616	0.1484	0.4484	6.47	6.9184	T	T	-0.71	13.29	28	374.0137657159	45.897916764754	0.41540369073763	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-25 23:00:04	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	31.62	20.19	25.905	117.79974039258	0.2036	0.4236	5.48	5.9036	T	F	-0.38	17.62	28	371.19982002223	43.727242432393	0.42751847142716	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-25 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	32.84	20.76	26.8	117.77010326995	0.1892	0.4192	5.48	5.8992	T	F	0.84	18.84	28	371.18275377765	43.714231244417	0.47281402330964	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-25 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	32.43	18.96	25.695	117.86891858117	0.1694	0.3994	5.48	5.8794	T	F	0.43	18.43	28	371.23965060058	43.757616150741	0.45752275926215	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-25 10:59:15	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	25.88	21.61	23.745	118.51165427427	0.24	0.47	5.48	5.95	T	F	-6.12	11.88	28	371.60938276538	44.040042695366	0.23532212253012	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-25 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	31.52	21.61	26.565	118.35463278393	0.2439	0.4939	5.51	6.0039	T	F	-0.48	15.52	28	371.51911224056	43.971008101442	0.42383955222523	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-25 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	31.73	20.41	26.07	118.82605556102	0.3009	0.5309	5.56	6.0909	T	F	-0.27	16.73	28	371.7900216241	44.178341766538	0.43157256135779	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-24 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	32.59	21.45	27.02	117.03787524389	0.1354	0.3754	5.94	6.3154	T	F	0.59	17.59	28	370.76069926528	43.393044465948	0.46348386343037	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-24 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	33.07	21.38	27.225	116.40240462055	0.0842	0.2942	5.89	6.1842	T	F	1.07	24.07	28	370.39377872588	43.114726500183	0.48141108619371	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-24 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	33.01	22.81	27.91	116.52721506529	0.0613	0.2813	5.94	6.2213	T	F	1.01	23.01	28	370.46589098257	43.16935855288	0.47916737782543	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-24 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	31.83	23.48	27.655	118.00695498825	0.1164	0.2964	5.96	6.2564	T	F	-0.17	20.83	28	371.31910661649	43.818237100771	0.43526437377889	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-24 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	32.73	24.1	28.415	118.58627492858	0.1164	0.2964	6	6.2964	T	F	0.73	19.73	28	371.65226902396	44.072858152308	0.4687066099483	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-24 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	32.86	22.15	27.505	118.77324234178	0.0965	0.2865	6.06	6.3465	T	F	0.86	21.86	28	371.7596879361	44.15510350814	0.4735611493016	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-23 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	33.76	20.89	27.325	119.66702084013	0.05	0.3	6.09	6.39	T	F	1.76	24.76	28	372.27248878156	44.548739673232	0.50723817622812	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-23 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	34.18	20.85	27.515	120.19858761512	0.0407	0.3407	6.11	6.4507	T	F	2.18	26.18	28	372.57692088107	44.783219667895	0.52295107530489	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-23 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	34.26	22.59	28.425	121.35294001152	0.1268	0.4768	6.14	6.6168	T	T	2.26	28.26	28	373.23661296201	45.293360302881	0.52594071486967	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2021-01-23 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	32.24	23.18	27.71	121.54541821623	0.1656	0.4856	6.12	6.6056	T	T	0.24	25.24	28	373.34642284281	45.378547103961	0.45045644731232	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-23 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	31.79	22.34	27.065	121.63907959433	0.1238	0.3938	6.11	6.5038	T	F	-0.21	20.79	28	373.39983776249	45.420012586102	0.43378695298293	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	31.85	22.25	27.05	121.57833912182	0.1238	0.3738	6.12	6.4938	T	F	-0.15	22.85	28	373.36519902585	45.393120783451	0.43600342450107	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-22 22:56:11	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	32.7	22.81	27.755	124.55560576366	0.2333	1.0233	6.16	7.1833	T	T	0.7	34.7	28	375.05678479207	46.715425025546	0.46758696561513	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-22 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	32.7	22.81	27.755	125.73570843685	0.2339	1.1039	6.13	7.2339	T	T	0.7	23.7	28	375.72374849381	47.24189169342	0.46758696561513	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-22 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	32.7	22.81	27.755	125.95445535247	0.2339	1.1039	6.13	7.2339	T	T	0.7	23.7	28	375.84715914524	47.339624225911	0.46758696561513	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-22 10:56:13	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	31.37	19.2	25.285	121.7313991806	0.0265	0.3265	6.23	6.5565	T	T	-0.63	23.37	28	373.45247502647	45.460892312433	0.4183336924581	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-22 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	31.37	19.2	25.285	118.52572344433	0.0265	0.3265	6.25	6.5765	T	T	-0.63	25.37	28	371.61746927268	44.046229390096	0.4183336924581	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-22 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	31.37	19.2	25.285	118.58000771908	0.0265	0.3265	6.25	6.5765	T	T	-0.63	25.37	28	371.6486674228	44.070101851782	0.4183336924581	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-21 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	30.6	19.56	25.08	113.96194932572	0.0263	0.1863	6.27	6.4563	T	F	-1.4	21.6	28	368.97914310851	42.04958240918	0.39034375494193	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-21 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	27.9	20.42	24.16	113.43955810363	0.0208	0.1208	6.29	6.4108	T	F	-4.1	17.9	28	368.67519243569	41.822350913674	0.29742297922431	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-21 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	27.9	20.42	24.16	113.44759086146	0.0136	0.1136	6.33	6.4436	T	F	-4.1	19.9	28	368.6798693087	41.825842972191	0.29742297922431	89	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-21 11:02:05	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	21.59	19.25	20.42	114.0816058149	0.0085	0.1585	6.34	6.4985	T	F	-10.41	9.59	28	369.04870787638	42.10166921845	0.13044455767273	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-21 07:02:06	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	21.26	19.25	20.255	113.97870986175	0.0015	0.1515	6.25	6.4015	T	F	-10.74	14.26	28	368.98888846519	42.056877460585	0.12398397217863	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-21 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	120	-164	21.38	21.1	21.24	113.90586826882	0.0002	0.1002	6.3	6.4002	T	F	-10.62	16.38	28	368.94653195195	42.025175066755	0.12630694820403	89	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L