Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, January 27, 2021

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DAY 119 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/28/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.23°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.07°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.65°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.210 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -7 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 8 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.22 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.37 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.58 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.95 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 125 in SWE DAY: 27 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 374.44 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 46.79 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -165 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-01-28 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	119	-165	25.23002	18.06998	21.65	124.95545875	0.22000000000003	1.37	5.58	6.95	T	T	-6.76998	8.23002	27	374.43544144348	46.787752357829	0.20993939829918	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-28 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	119	-165	25.23002	18.06998	21.65	124.95545875	0.22000000000003	1.37	5.58	6.95	T	T	-6.76998	8.23002	27	374.43544144348	46.787752357829	0.20993939829918	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-27 10:55:42	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	28.66	23.38	26.02	121.32021907397	0.102	1.252	5.58	6.832	T	T	-3.34	11.66	27	372.3625240579	45.175102993642	0.31680429987302	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-27 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	29.54	20.72	25.13	121.2363619773	0.1202	1.2702	5.58	6.8502	T	T	-2.46	12.54	27	372.31448012994	45.138053082425	0.34752707876888	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-27 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	29.72	18.61	24.165	121.52264011921	0.1671	1.3171	5.58	6.8971	T	T	-2.28	12.72	27	372.47845422294	45.264565144695	0.3539450417961	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-26 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	29.49	18.75	24.12	121.87283974792	0.2086	1.3386	5.58	6.9186	T	T	-2.51	16.49	27	372.67887912579	45.419433313132	0.34575194212586	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-26 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	29.92	20.38	25.15	121.79670031273	0.1513	1.2813	5.58	6.8613	T	T	-2.08	16.92	27	372.63531846304	45.385752208781	0.36112500443992	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-26 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	29.92	20.12	25.02	121.82785150569	0.1819	1.3119	5.58	6.8919	T	T	-2.08	16.92	27	372.65314160736	45.399531598871	0.36112500443992	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-26 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	29.88	20.74	25.31	122.80288163902	0.2238	1.3538	5.58	6.9338	T	T	-2.12	16.88	27	373.21029249408	45.831299375614	0.35968499822246	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-26 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	30.08	18.52	24.3	122.51219351564	0.2532	1.3732	5.58	6.9532	T	T	-1.92	16.08	27	373.04433207464	45.70247940104	0.36690454068087	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-26 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	30.53	18.72	24.625	122.18248950218	0.2113	1.3213	5.58	6.9013	T	T	-1.47	15.53	27	372.85594823175	45.556467980652	0.38331803575304	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-25 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	30.39	20.15	25.27	117.1424288646	0.1282	0.2482	5.58	5.8282	T	F	-1.61	20.39	27	369.9564700324	43.337599473769	0.37818756952647	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-25 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	30.31	19.89	25.1	117.12998196475	0.1328	0.2628	5.58	5.8428	T	F	-1.69	20.31	27	369.94926345515	43.332150556376	0.37526542089644	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-25 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	30.03	19.6	24.815	117.22564356332	0.1435	0.2635	5.58	5.8435	T	F	-1.97	20.03	27	370.00464430155	43.374032549665	0.36509512233312	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-25 10:59:15	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	29.99	18.84	24.415	117.46888083537	0.1276	0.2576	5.58	5.8376	T	F	-2.01	19.99	27	370.1453997335	43.480565853054	0.36364974401199	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-25 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	29.31	18.54	23.925	117.31073446741	0.1369	0.3069	5.58	5.8869	T	F	-2.69	18.31	27	370.05389420666	43.411294121909	0.33938970475456	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-25 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	28.91	19.68	24.295	117.46857236392	0.1234	0.3434	5.58	5.9234	T	F	-3.09	18.91	27	370.14522128371	43.480430711524	0.32541630099902	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-24 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	29.75	18.2	23.975	116.34479656146	0.1363	0.4163	5.89	6.3063	T	F	-2.25	18.75	27	369.49419149369	42.988726539975	0.35501880602673	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-24 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	30.58	19.07	24.825	115.9905552799	0.1309	0.3409	5.89	6.2309	T	F	-1.42	24.58	27	369.28858566184	42.833988109447	0.38515536661416	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-24 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	29.74	19.21	24.475	116.2437493293	0.1306	0.4006	5.89	6.2906	T	F	-2.26	23.74	27	369.43556134212	42.944574785982	0.35466075622602	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-24 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	29.3	18.9	24.1	117.44068067642	0.0864	0.3764	5.89	6.2664	T	F	-2.7	23.3	27	370.12908545076	43.468211733479	0.33903756458955	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-24 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	30.08	19.7	24.89	118.03436120913	0.0928	0.4128	5.9	6.3128	T	F	-1.92	21.08	27	370.47229343676	43.728460501491	0.36690454068087	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-24 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	29.13	16.56	22.845	118.24543806556	0.0865	0.3865	5.99	6.3765	T	F	-2.87	23.13	27	370.59419275901	43.82107266734	0.33307289458555	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-23 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	29.04	19.86	24.45	119.44451857153	0.1286	0.4686	6	6.4686	T	F	-2.96	25.04	27	371.28543680035	44.348010251238	0.32993201131593	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-23 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	28.95	18.46	23.705	120.02433690885	0.1528	0.5228	6.02	6.5428	T	T	-3.05	25.95	27	371.61893517139	44.603316276718	0.32680306385483	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-23 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	29.68	18.7	24.19	120.70336322817	0.1529	0.5929	6.03	6.6229	T	T	-2.32	27.68	27	372.00887183602	44.902721981326	0.35251516157943	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-23 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	29.94	19.57	24.755	120.58517780644	0.1271	0.4971	6.07	6.5671	T	T	-2.06	26.94	27	371.94105117981	44.850577790032	0.3618457473998	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-23 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	30.33	19.01	24.67	120.83664465519	0.0793	0.4593	6.05	6.5093	T	T	-1.67	23.33	27	372.08533090672	44.961542912183	0.37599529494715	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	30.33	18.95	24.64	120.75468409053	0.0792	0.4292	6.07	6.4992	T	F	-1.67	25.33	27	372.03831595272	44.925369312444	0.37599529494715	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-22 22:56:11	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	34.51	19.61	27.06	123.2756291093	0.4944	1.0344	6.05	7.0844	T	T	2.51	35.51	27	373.47993315901	46.040973719877	0.53428722514628	90	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2021-01-22 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	27.38	19.61	23.495	124.41405777503	0.5698	1.0998	6.03	7.1298	T	T	-4.62	25.38	27	374.12793087218	46.546774006784	0.27432502102055	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-22 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	27.38	19.61	23.495	124.59411677353	0.5698	1.0998	6.03	7.1298	T	T	-4.62	25.38	27	374.2302495963	46.626887418389	0.27432502102055	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-22 10:56:13	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	27.69	17.38	22.535	121.50904295472	0.0774	0.5874	6.07	6.6574	T	T	-4.31	25.69	27	372.47066875015	45.258554488536	0.28435146203807	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-22 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	27.69	17.38	22.535	118.40269499815	0.0774	0.5974	6.08	6.6774	T	T	-4.31	27.69	27	370.68496798009	43.890099204145	0.28435146203807	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-22 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	27.69	17.38	22.535	118.45284712968	0.0774	0.5974	6.08	6.6774	T	T	-4.31	27.69	27	370.71391024478	43.912118139072	0.28435146203807	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-21 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	26.98	17.53	22.255	113.83022701664	0.0666	0.4366	6.12	6.5566	T	T	-5.02	24.98	27	368.03069336628	41.893017374976	0.26165077035722	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2021-01-21 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	25.98	16.02	21	113.35020053656	0.013	0.383	6.14	6.523	T	F	-6.02	23.98	27	367.75025031399	41.68456462046	0.23133083426873	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-21 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	25.98	16.02	21	113.37966446021	0.013	0.383	6.18	6.563	T	T	-6.02	25.98	27	367.76747370071	41.697352767566	0.23133083426873	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-21 11:02:05	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	25.14	16.3	20.72	114.00579686182	0.0522	0.4422	6.18	6.6222	T	T	-6.86	22.14	27	368.13318013391	41.969316552442	0.20745217366307	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-21 07:02:06	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	25.14	16.3	20.72	113.95504346813	0.0522	0.3322	6.2	6.5322	T	F	-6.86	27.14	27	368.10355815212	41.947256969998	0.20745217366307	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-21 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	25.6	18.16	21.88	113.90309891978	0.0613	0.2713	6.26	6.5313	T	F	-6.4	28.6	27	368.07323700403	41.924682324193	0.2203438501619	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-20 23:02:04	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	24.5	19.65	22.075	124.83825549729	0.8516	1.3716	6.34	7.7116	T	T	-7.5	31.5	27	374.3689069767	46.735561259399	0.19027607028664	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-20 19:00:07	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	22.89	19.74	21.315	125.22289648944	0.7087	1.2487	6.28	7.5287	T	T	-9.11	30.89	27	374.58718755291	46.90689261321	0.15107308120033	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-20 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	25.52	18.75	22.135	123.4230192327	0.601	0.931	6.34	7.271	T	T	-6.48	30.52	27	373.56393377975	46.10638858354	0.21806944772425	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2021-01-20 10:56:08	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	20.57	15.91	18.24	120.3385008198	0.009	0.159	6.42	6.579	T	F	-11.43	34.57	27	371.79943008101	44.741786021603	0.10469108591685	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-20 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	20.58	17.35	18.965	120.34553960541	0.0034	0.1534	6.44	6.5934	T	F	-11.42	34.58	27	371.80347238741	44.744889511629	0.10486600369293	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-20 02:59:20	FORECAST	2021	119	-165	18.85	18.48	18.665	120.94512415483	0	0.17	6.58	6.75	T	T	-13.15	32.85	27	372.14754284173	45.009430772909	0.077653217830544	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L