MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 21, 2021

[ Wednesday, January 20, 2021 | Index | Today | Friday, January 22, 2021 ]

DAY 113 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/22/2021 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.73°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.21°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.97°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.375
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 47

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.07 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 115 in
SWE DAY: 21
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 363.51 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 41.85 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -171

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-01-22 07:00:07OBSERVATION2021113-17130.7299223.2100626.96999115.132643750.00999999999999090.0299999999999919.049.07TT-1.2700846.7299221363.50616014202 41.8514252365620.3748051980437391 2111122WETL
2021-01-22 03:00:07OBSERVATION2021113-17130.7299223.2100626.96999115.132643750.00999999999999090.0299999999999919.049.07TT-1.2700846.7299221363.50616014202 41.8514252365620.3748051980437391 2111122WETL
2021-01-21 11:02:01FORECAST2021113-17130.1126.2828.1951120.05540.07549.049.1154TT-1.8946.1121361.6336685032640.5029708723650.34952340933345912111122WETL
2021-01-21 07:02:06FORECAST2021113-17133.926.6430.27112.2822610.0950.1159.049.155TT1.949.921361.802997274840.6240585705910.51028486334802913112125WETL
2021-01-21 03:00:08FORECAST2021113-17132.5126.8429.675112.3001370.2410.2619.049.301TT0.5148.5121361.8137170252840.6317299904190.45007874252242912112124WETL
2021-01-20 23:02:00FORECAST2021113-17133.4926.6430.065119.974306666670.28320.37329.049.4132TT1.4953.4921366.3710422723943.9551117793740.49248883070879912112124WETL
2021-01-20 19:00:03FORECAST2021113-17133.1726.9330.05119.982069333330.22350.31359.049.3535TT1.1753.1721366.3756073239743.9585035199870.47860782659427912112124WETL
2021-01-20 15:00:03FORECAST2021113-17133.2726.9130.09119.9788440.25240.34249.049.3824TT1.2753.2721366.3737105881243.9570942683530.48294364613828912112124WETL
2021-01-20 10:56:05FORECAST2021113-17133.0426.8129.925119.9084880.29650.38659.049.4265TT1.0453.0421366.3323321613943.9263560549860.47297512030147912112124WETL
2021-01-20 07:00:08FORECAST2021113-17133.1926.8130119.998272956520.29520.39529.049.4352TT1.1953.1921366.3851360242943.9655835598550.47947480446222912112124WETL
2021-01-20 02:59:20FORECAST2021113-17133.5426.4129.975119.992642289860.35540.48549.049.5254TT1.5453.5421366.3818248997243.9631232566970.49465898742544912112124WETL
2021-01-19 23:00:06FORECAST2021113-17134.5926.2630.425110.728634666670.50650.70659.049.7465TT2.5956.5921360.8694679720439.9585834814310.54016996854996913113127.5WETL
2021-01-19 19:00:06FORECAST2021113-17134.9226.6630.79110.755700513310.52080.67089.049.7108TT2.9256.9221360.8857626092939.9701554430730.55439337117157913113127.5WETL
2021-01-19 15:02:01FORECAST2021113-17134.9926.730.845110.6213240.51930.66939.049.7093TT2.9957.9921360.8048519690739.9127104304430.55740210575139913113127.5WETL
2021-01-19 10:56:11FORECAST2021113-17134.4827.1230.8110.363947217170.49960.61969.049.6596TT2.4857.4821360.6498034165839.8027358681490.53541646933246913113127.5WETL
2021-01-19 07:00:08FORECAST2021113-17133.7825.7729.775111.002980516850.46640.60649.049.6464TT1.7855.7821361.0345824270940.0759147190630.50507680750566913113127.5WETL
2021-01-19 03:00:07FORECAST2021113-17133.2725.3929.33110.995364148510.37790.50799.049.5479TT1.2756.2721361.0300000849340.0726563279660.48294364613828912113126WETL
2021-01-18 23:00:06FORECAST2021113-17132.424.3828.39112.678363740070.25310.33318.979.3031TT0.458.421362.0404152425940.7941215973120.44534487279173912112124WETL
2021-01-18 19:02:00FORECAST2021113-17131.1923.4727.33112.884067772590.15190.16198.979.1319TT-0.8157.1921362.1636169140240.8825022764890.39392960824731912112124WETL
2021-01-18 15:00:06FORECAST2021113-17131.1723.2927.23112.947987518550.19770.20778.979.1777TT-0.8357.1721362.2018870599240.9099742188390.3930925436517912112124WETL
2021-01-18 11:00:06FORECAST2021113-17132.324.3628.33112.579573658450.11920.12928.979.0992TT0.358.321361.9812243240340.7516919067630.44104808847901912112124WETL
2021-01-18 06:56:28FORECAST2021113-17135.324.5729.935112.64415936630.09650.10658.979.0765TT3.361.321362.0199230817840.7794299094010.57068441657497913112125WETL
2021-01-18 03:00:07FORECAST2021113-17136.724.5730.635112.771080059650.10010.11018.979.0801TT4.762.721362.0959535056240.8339517620580.62947050728668913112125WETL
2021-01-17 22:59:20FORECAST2021113-17134.4925.3729.93112.3553160.06310.07318.888.9531TT2.4963.4921361.8468032993540.6554119282890.5358488248728913111122.5WETL
2021-01-17 19:00:06FORECAST2021113-17131.5723.7827.675112.536959234320.16110.17118.889.0511TT-0.4363.5721361.9556869433440.7333923861730.40992274654947912112124WETL
2021-01-17 15:00:05FORECAST2021113-17131.723.7827.74112.580101508340.15280.16288.879.0328TT-0.363.721361.9815406292640.7519185881880.41543012252837912112124WETL
2021-01-17 11:00:06FORECAST2021113-17133.7625.0229.39112.265068567170.15320.17328.879.0432TT1.7664.7621361.7926869817640.6166808111080.50420869007879913112125WETL
2021-01-17 07:00:09FORECAST2021113-17133.7625.0229.39112.340396213770.15320.18328.889.0632TT1.7661.7621361.8378575972440.6490082876170.50420869007879913112125WETL
2021-01-17 02:59:23FORECAST2021113-17133.4824.3628.92112.564179647440.08370.10379.019.1137TT1.4858.4821361.9719995336640.7450811828480.49205482398614912112124WETL
2021-01-16 23:00:05FORECAST2021113-17135.7628.1831.97114.087064772850.24810.32819.129.4481TT3.7671.7621362.8828365369541.4002376769460.59024275797739913112125WETL
2021-01-16 19:00:06FORECAST2021113-17135.7628.2331.995113.924507003140.10330.12339.159.2733TT3.7672.7621362.7857786814241.330190984030.59024275797739913112125WETL
2021-01-16 15:00:05FORECAST2021113-17136.1927.0431.615113.827799489930.0190.0499.189.229TT4.1975.1921362.728018816141.288532195180.60832569610404913111122.5WETL
2021-01-16 11:00:06FORECAST2021113-17136.5727.5632.065114.548069422320.22080.23089.229.4508TT4.5771.5721363.1578692533641.5990328184940.62411482680725913112125WETL
2021-01-16 07:00:09FORECAST2021113-17136.5727.5632.065114.261990020040.22080.23089.239.4608TT4.5770.5721362.9872338487941.4756436914320.62411482680725913112125WETL
2021-01-16 03:00:08FORECAST2021113-17136.328.8432.57114.677612528670.35920.36929.229.5892TT4.370.321363.2350959783641.6549335934210.61291589700088913112125WETL
2021-01-15 22:59:19FORECAST2021113-17134.1222.6328.375115.979178840610.17150.24158.849.0815TT2.1273.1221364.0096121176242.217535903490.51982777310665913112125WETL
2021-01-15 19:00:05FORECAST2021113-17134.5122.6328.57116.715064531240.17150.32158.849.1615TT2.5171.5121364.4463799358942.5363827523950.53671340846275913112125WETL
2021-01-15 15:00:06FORECAST2021113-17133.5120.9627.235115.930375190030.08180.11188.868.9718TT1.5174.5121363.9806169704242.1964094872780.4933568703159912112124WETL
2021-01-15 10:59:22FORECAST2021113-17132.9523.7128.33116.764731842110.24080.29088.869.1508TT0.9569.9521364.475829412642.5579224842940.46907864964116912112124WETL
2021-01-15 06:56:39FORECAST2021113-17132.9523.7128.33116.706586497890.24080.29088.949.2308TT0.9563.9521364.4413526437142.5327062457190.46907864964116912112124WETL
2021-01-15 03:00:10FORECAST2021113-17131.0119.5925.3116.167696651030.07380.15389.179.3238TT-0.9959.0121364.1215802679942.2991652806660.38641411303922912112124WETL
2021-01-14 23:00:06FORECAST2021113-17126.7419.4123.075121.25813496060.27630.51639.439.9463TT-5.2659.7421367.1248109174244.516869869610.22562367028468911113124.5WETL
2021-01-14 19:00:06FORECAST2021113-17126.7519.4123.08120.596565080130.21380.45389.339.7838TT-5.2555.7521366.7366931724444.2271854854420.22595073832691911112123WETL
2021-01-14 14:56:38FORECAST2021113-17127.7322.1524.94119.522711406090.06780.38789.349.7278TT-4.2760.7321366.1053141543543.7578998079060.25927141342402912112124WETL
2021-01-14 11:00:06FORECAST2021113-17126.2118.0322.12120.872201022890.13780.50789.379.8778TT-5.7957.2121366.8984774986544.3478265272110.20867587043579911113124.5WETL
2021-01-14 07:00:11FORECAST2021113-17126.2121.9824.095118.777772703030.06350.43359.269.6935TT-5.7957.2121365.6663099607643.4330298496740.20867587043579911112123WETL
2021-01-14 03:00:10FORECAST2021113-17128.0225.4326.725120.568046420850.09670.57679.289.8567TT-3.9857.0221366.7199476982844.2147076775380.26959641570791912113126WETL