MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 19, 2021

[ Monday, January 18, 2021 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 20, 2021 ]

DAY 111 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/19/2021 11:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.35°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.01°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.719
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 47

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.20 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.46 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.66 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 111 in
SWE DAY: 19
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 359.10 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 39.78 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -173

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2021-01-19 10:56:08FORECAST2021111-17339.6730.3535.01110.79090.01010.200111.4611.6601TT7.6746.6719359.0989434283339.7848951314730.71868009599905924112126WETL
2021-01-19 07:00:08FORECAST2021111-17339.6724.231.935111.056442333330.00890.198911.4611.6589TT7.6746.6719359.2599550688639.8981324827810.71868009599905924112126WETL
2021-01-19 03:00:07FORECAST2021111-17339.6823.7931.735111.045891666670.0110.20111.4611.661TT7.6846.6819359.2535597417839.8936318759510.71903667594172924112126WETL
2021-01-18 23:00:03FORECAST2021111-17339.6229.0534.335112.706658666670.00480.124811.4611.5848TT7.6250.6219360.2581332087340.6034904514470.716893930705924112126WETL
2021-01-18 19:01:58FORECAST2021111-17339.9529.4234.685112.7169360.00490.124911.4611.5849TT7.9550.9519360.2643366324540.6078921752820.72858095925286924112126WETL
2021-01-18 15:00:03FORECAST2021111-17339.6930.5735.13112.716389333330.00450.124511.4611.5845TT7.6950.6919360.2640066671840.6076580382840.71939303756166924112126WETL
2021-01-18 11:00:06FORECAST2021111-17339.5430.5235.03112.6021360.00120.121211.4611.5812TT7.5450.5419360.1950338705240.5587301904130.71402481034962924112126WETL
2021-01-18 06:56:28FORECAST2021111-17339.8432.5936.215112.76000850.00120.121211.4611.5812TT7.8450.8419360.290333538140.6263410722240.72471208565189924112126WETL
2021-01-18 03:00:07FORECAST2021111-17340.0430.1335.085112.90400050.00120.121211.4611.5812TT8.0451.0419360.3772209314240.688029932230.73172614839669924112126WETL
2021-01-17 22:59:19FORECAST2021111-17340.1630.2335.195112.592405333330.00080.030811.4611.4908TT8.1655.1619360.1891587073340.5545637538480.73589105362617924111123WETL
2021-01-17 19:00:06FORECAST2021111-17340.3832.0536.215112.5217760.00230.032311.4611.4923TT8.3856.3819360.1465099119340.5243249154920.74344032975538924111123WETL
2021-01-17 15:00:04FORECAST2021111-17340.6931.436.045112.599621333330.00080.020811.4611.4808TT8.6956.6919360.1935155838340.5576534614620.75388426327675924111123WETL
2021-01-17 11:00:06FORECAST2021111-17340.393135.695112.600011233840.00120.021211.4611.4812TT8.3955.3919360.1937509956940.5578204084720.74378079212129924111123WETL
2021-01-17 07:00:09FORECAST2021111-17339.4931.1135.3112.756300213770.00820.038211.4611.4982TT7.4952.4919360.2880954709440.624752656370.71222462786528924111123WETL
2021-01-17 02:59:23FORECAST2021111-17339.6131.235.405112.83401431410.00850.168511.4611.6285TT7.6149.6119360.3349939623340.6580438666180.7165360463912924112126WETL
2021-01-16 23:00:04FORECAST2021111-1734030.2635.13114.517947439510.0260.27611.4811.756TT86119361.3489347089641.3809383123240.73033054996422924112126WETL
2021-01-16 19:00:06FORECAST2021111-17341.4431.8736.655114.421208336470.00710.287111.4811.7671TT9.4460.4419361.2908028730341.3393302255860.77818115669612924112126WETL
2021-01-16 15:00:05FORECAST2021111-17341.7732.8237.295114.2491820080.00790.317911.4811.7979TT9.7761.7719361.1873946336141.2653643884920.78842258216335924112126WETL
2021-01-16 11:00:06FORECAST2021111-17337.043335.02114.002393613670.0020.35211.4811.832TT5.0457.0419361.0389665915241.1593063792380.61825368486352923112125WETL
2021-01-16 07:00:09FORECAST2021111-17340.1432.6236.38113.693171482480.00370.353711.4911.8437TT8.1456.1419360.8528571228441.0265057648090.73519919402658924112126WETL
2021-01-16 03:00:08FORECAST2021111-17341.1233.1837.15113.583987182880.00350.343511.4911.8335TT9.1258.1219360.7871081675340.979638269850.76798556625818924112126WETL
2021-01-15 22:59:19FORECAST2021111-17340.9630.2435.6116.015248360360.00180.341811.1111.4518TT8.9661.9619362.2468639941542.0261598940430.76279169013203924112126WETL
2021-01-15 19:00:04FORECAST2021111-17340.6931.5536.12116.077762059980.00180.351811.111.4518TT8.6959.6919362.2842791589742.0531483542860.75388426327675924112126WETL
2021-01-15 15:00:05FORECAST2021111-17339.6729.3434.505115.961168560120.00380.373811.111.4738TT7.6764.6719362.2144918215642.0028157410380.71868009599905924112126WETL
2021-01-15 10:59:22FORECAST2021111-17338.9529.2534.1115.774256029550.02120.391211.111.4912TT6.9559.9519362.1025717163241.9221558468430.69245043626904923112125WETL
2021-01-15 06:56:39FORECAST2021111-17336.2431.7533.995115.610671100980.02460.414611.1611.5746TT4.2457.2419362.00457617941.851591993680.58563455457197923112125WETL
2021-01-15 03:00:10FORECAST2021111-17336.2331.7633.995115.685283901330.0230.44311.3611.803TT4.2355.2319362.0492780211341.8837735141470.58522254004243923112125WETL
2021-01-14 23:00:06FORECAST2021111-17336.3729.0932.73117.759600181590.14970.559711.6312.1897TT4.3762.3719363.2886518109242.7807263877620.59098201266301923113127.5WETL
2021-01-14 19:00:06FORECAST2021111-17336.3429.0932.715117.791847655340.14990.479911.6112.0899TT4.3458.3419363.307867707142.794705004940.58974944704032923112125WETL
2021-01-14 14:56:38FORECAST2021111-17337.3828.3832.88118.223951072410.16340.593411.5212.1134TT5.3863.3819363.5652013413842.9821145750160.63188091209276923113127.5WETL
2021-01-14 11:00:05FORECAST2021111-17338.9929.1734.08117.380510626780.07130.531311.5212.0513TT6.9960.9919363.0626386884842.6164779187620.69393551181393923113127.5WETL
2021-01-14 07:00:11FORECAST2021111-17338.9929.1734.08116.346286533910.07130.471311.4711.9413TT6.9960.9919362.4449265842.1691212806370.69393551181393923112125WETL
2021-01-14 03:00:10FORECAST2021111-17338.6829.1433.91117.071927457570.07220.512211.4511.9622TT6.6857.6819362.8785007168242.4828855118310.68234457882192923113127.5WETL
2021-01-13 23:00:06FORECAST2021111-17337.629.6833.64122.705934908180.08250.502511.3511.8525TT5.648.619366.2177971415644.937097178270.64061215808942923113127.5WETL
2021-01-13 19:01:52FORECAST2021111-17337.6129.6833.645123.258385879340.08250.432511.2811.7125TT5.6145.6119366.542671519545.1794580473960.64100733459189923112125WETL
2021-01-13 15:00:04FORECAST2021111-17338.8428.9233.88123.14203977850.08040.380411.3311.7104TT6.8448.8419366.4742909075145.1283917087310.68835025451079923112125WETL
2021-01-13 11:00:04FORECAST2021111-17337.3227.8132.565124.264334202090.26680.526811.3211.8468TT5.3243.3219367.1330600768345.6215452740240.62948757454872923113127.5WETL
2021-01-13 07:00:09FORECAST2021111-17336.4427.8132.125123.946056164790.26680.526811.3511.8768TT4.4448.4419366.9464266035745.4815624012750.59385448352817923113127.5WETL
2021-01-13 02:56:35FORECAST2021111-17334.726.3330.515125.106036844470.26030.520311.512.0203TT2.748.719367.6258954101945.9922188161680.52134787993896923113127.5WETL
2021-01-12 22:59:22FORECAST2021111-17336.5125.531.005126.960075400890.40720.577211.2911.8672TT4.5155.5119368.7077661604546.8111657926240.59672191237244923113127.5WETL
2021-01-12 19:00:06FORECAST2021111-17336.4727.3631.915125.924666324020.31880.518811.3611.8788TT4.4757.4719368.1042112450846.3533999735040.5950840076303923113127.5WETL
2021-01-12 14:56:51FORECAST2021111-17337.4234.8236.12123.988873172430.17590.365911.3711.7359TT5.4259.4219366.9715426397245.5003880582460.63347363924272923112125WETL
2021-01-12 11:00:05FORECAST2021111-17336.9333.335.115125.614015125880.00020.450211.3511.8002TT4.9355.9319367.9228183938646.2162624748820.61381238760759923112125WETL
2021-01-12 07:00:07FORECAST2021111-17335.3233.5434.43126.22317850580.00020.450212.2212.6702TT3.3256.3219368.2783811864446.4852678483210.54739269581497923112125WETL
2021-01-12 03:00:08FORECAST2021111-17340.2237.8339.025125.79471258120.00090.440912.8613.3009TT8.2261.2219368.0283471550746.2960201521050.73796109978329924112126WETL