Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, January 16, 2021

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DAY 108 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/17/2021 07:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.55°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.01°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.78°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.826 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 9 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 37 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.39 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 15.43 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.82 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 113 in SWE DAY: 16 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 357.81 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 40.49 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -176 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2021-01-17 07:00:09	OBSERVATION	2021	108	-176	40.55	25.01006	32.78003	113.15430125	0	0.39	15.43	15.82	T	T	8.55	36.55	16	357.80665941466	40.487362528662	0.82610026850486	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-17 02:59:23	OBSERVATION	2021	108	-176	40.55	25.01006	32.78003	113.15430125	0	0.39	15.43	15.82	T	T	8.55	36.55	16	357.80665941466	40.487362528662	0.82610026850486	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-16 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	42.42	32.63	37.525	114.66237866667	0.016	0.406	15.43	15.836	T	T	10.42	38.42	16	358.72458176972	41.132213831921	0.88102259920838	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-01-16 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	38.69	30.77	34.73	114.36127975	0.0281	0.4181	15.43	15.8481	T	T	6.69	34.69	16	358.54159253768	41.003275366212	0.75773668919913	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-16 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	39.35	26.15	32.75	114.261057075	0.0258	0.4158	15.43	15.8458	T	T	7.35	35.35	16	358.48065236607	40.960378280282	0.78351794975128	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-15 22:59:18	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	39.91	29.4	34.655	116.55479466667	0.0184	0.0384	15.43	15.4684	T	T	7.91	37.91	16	359.87147639748	41.944746037898	0.80409359408862	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-15 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	38.99	31.19	35.09	116.635428	0.0105	0.0305	15.43	15.4605	T	T	6.99	36.99	16	359.92022171012	41.979449105015	0.76965656219231	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-15 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	41.02	32.61	36.815	116.501768	0.014	0.034	15.43	15.464	T	T	9.02	39.02	16	359.83941471605	41.921928010506	0.84122012263836	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-15 10:59:21	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	40.5	31.78	36.14	116.37634898701	0.0104	0.0304	15.43	15.4604	T	T	8.5	38.5	16	359.76356503315	41.867970197108	0.82443968982288	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2021-01-15 06:56:39	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	40.83	32.31	36.57	115.87201223906	0.0033	0.0933	15.43	15.5233	T	T	8.83	38.83	16	359.45831313256	41.651158058727	0.83521453371573	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-15 03:00:09	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	40.96	32.34	36.65	115.80208697604	0.003	0.293	15.43	15.723	T	T	8.96	36.96	16	359.41595970339	41.621118226149	0.83933927753056	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-14 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	41.43	31.77	36.6	117.32716345875	0.0044	0.5644	15.43	15.9944	T	T	9.43	44.43	16	360.33798698398	42.277433899265	0.85368583330199	89	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2021-01-14 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	41.94	31.22	36.58	117.40149247228	0.0022	0.5422	15.43	15.9722	T	T	9.94	39.94	16	360.38283343565	42.309482506734	0.86825333144578	89	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2021-01-14 14:56:38	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	41.61	30.99	36.3	117.24412268118	0.0027	0.4527	15.43	15.8827	T	T	9.61	41.61	16	360.28787427012	42.241635731468	0.8589457834621	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-01-14 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	41.67	30.85	36.26	116.60466525181	0.0028	0.4528	15.43	15.8828	T	T	9.67	41.67	16	359.90162586715	41.966208607821	0.86067032604896	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-01-14 07:00:11	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	41.96	30.99	36.475	116.16676970598	0.0034	0.4034	15.43	15.8334	T	T	9.96	41.96	16	359.63676379043	41.777841117046	0.8688035175772	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-01-14 03:00:09	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	42.13	30.95	36.54	116.43370125824	0.0031	0.3831	15.43	15.8131	T	T	10.13	38.13	16	359.79825297665	41.892642300319	0.87341623039122	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-01-13 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	42.85	31.13	36.99	122.42070270821	0.0054	0.4354	15.27	15.7054	T	T	10.85	29.85	16	363.39167058843	44.486663671745	0.89169924284723	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-01-13 19:01:52	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	42.6	31.67	37.135	122.53188401739	0.0081	0.3681	15.27	15.6381	T	T	10.6	27.6	16	363.4578865137	44.535179595504	0.88557874882296	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-01-13 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	42.27	30.91	36.59	122.57303071159	0.0077	0.4177	15.27	15.6877	T	T	10.27	29.27	16	363.48238738894	44.553137832545	0.87712942142461	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-01-13 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	37.77	30.14	33.955	123.46484872381	0.0042	0.4142	15.27	15.6842	T	T	5.77	25.77	16	364.01279335688	44.94278446534	0.71919261072616	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-13 07:00:09	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	41.41	32.29	36.85	123.0442710234	0.006	0.406	15.3	15.706	T	T	9.41	32.41	16	363.76280578532	44.758929263279	0.85309339055265	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-01-13 02:56:35	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	41.52	31.25	36.385	123.81181454783	0.0061	0.3861	15.47	15.8561	T	T	9.52	32.52	16	364.21882575922	45.094593709729	0.85633200740131	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-01-12 22:59:20	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	41.22	30.14	35.68	125.23957136433	0.0047	0.3947	15.26	15.6547	T	T	9.22	36.22	16	365.06473630296	45.720551094814	0.84738521737731	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-12 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	41.04	30.78	35.91	125.38223548207	0.0047	0.4247	15.3	15.7247	T	T	9.04	37.04	16	365.14909280122	45.783209539667	0.84184385886495	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-12 14:56:49	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	41.11	31.24	36.175	124.99966353724	0.0112	0.4312	15.3	15.7312	T	T	9.11	37.11	16	364.92281119965	45.615228617021	0.84401428784934	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-12 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	40.9	31.45	36.175	124.94995986539	0.0264	0.4264	15.28	15.7064	T	T	8.9	35.9	16	364.89339659571	45.59341525978	0.83744397894936	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-12 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	40.87	30.72	35.795	125.48075733224	0.0245	0.6545	15.93	16.5845	T	T	8.87	34.87	16	365.20733038108	45.826492399503	0.83649091045925	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-01-12 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	40.85	30.67	35.76	125.76143431343	0.0201	0.6501	16.57	17.2201	T	T	8.85	33.85	16	365.37316241079	45.949852964415	0.83585352469125	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-01-11 23:00:07	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	35.73	29.82	32.775	126.92155596886	0.0115	0.7115	17.3	18.0115	T	T	3.73	27.73	16	366.05734280165	46.460567522212	0.62456734597014	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-11 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	40.85	31.21	36.03	127.5474843839	0.0115	0.4515	17.77	18.2215	T	T	8.85	33.85	16	366.42564689211	46.736669474833	0.83585352469125	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-11 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	41.87	29.37	35.62	127.77556052324	0.0216	0.4316	17.61	18.0416	T	T	9.87	35.87	16	366.55970425085	46.837371675884	0.86631519074122	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2021-01-11 10:56:49	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	42.04	33.32	37.68	128.14408464635	0.0018	0.5018	17.75	18.2518	T	T	10.04	36.04	16	366.77614931147	47.000193923631	0.87098842853968	89	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2021-01-11 07:00:08	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	42.02	33.33	37.675	129.11858140199	0.0021	0.5221	17.52	18.0421	T	T	10.02	38.02	16	367.34752466373	47.431391266114	0.87044457394438	89	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2021-01-11 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	41.79	33.17	37.48	127.21620006461	0.0026	0.5226	17.56	18.0826	T	T	9.79	34.79	16	366.23078800872	46.590489197137	0.86407634750512	89	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2021-01-10 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	43.12	30.75	36.935	134.98759145522	0.0043	0.5843	17.19	17.7743	T	T	11.12	36.12	16	370.75894555612	50.047857071097	0.89804161193317	89	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2021-01-10 19:00:07	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	43.11	30.32	36.715	133.66745514633	0.0043	0.4943	16.61	17.1043	T	T	11.11	34.11	16	369.99603001811	49.456427746765	0.89781162083452	89	5	1	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2021-01-10 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	40.15	28.94	34.545	136.51530172664	0.0123	0.5223	16.23	16.7523	T	T	8.15	32.15	16	371.63863222494	50.734360011463	0.81253651224626	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2021-01-10 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	37.01	26.41	31.71	132.34597589277	0.0044	0.6244	16.07	16.6944	T	T	5.01	39.01	16	369.229772008	48.866074505062	0.68526802189052	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-10 07:01:49	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	37.02	26.42	31.72	131.55054933687	0.0044	0.6244	16.05	16.6744	T	T	5.02	34.02	16	368.7673034388	48.51154134485	0.68572559962222	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-10 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	37.04	26.41	31.725	134.55204682447	0.0056	0.5156	16.38	16.8956	T	T	5.04	30.04	16	370.50752414071	49.852545736998	0.68663989949786	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2021-01-09 22:57:00	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	32.08	24.93	28.505	135.32767074883	0.0882	1.0182	16.61	17.6282	T	T	0.079999999999998	39.08	16	370.95506560167	50.200484980353	0.43921925670548	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-09 18:56:53	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	32.07	24.88	28.475	141.15829439592	0.0882	1.0382	16.98	18.0182	T	T	0.07	40.07	16	374.29130559964	52.834322305667	0.4387110910101	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-09 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	31.61	26.37	28.99	140.39523577176	0.0697	0.6497	16.86	17.5097	T	T	-0.39	33.61	16	373.85749391683	52.487811003492	0.41545790995984	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2021-01-09 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	32.79	30.19	31.49	132.19859668182	0.0362	1.2962	17.92	19.2162	T	T	0.79	43.79	16	369.14415483997	48.800339243142	0.47550544856003	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-09 07:00:09	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	32.78	30.19	31.485	130.22175763863	0.0309	1.2909	17.7	18.9909	T	T	0.78	41.78	16	367.99264403827	47.920648904751	0.47499224352677	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2021-01-09 03:00:10	FORECAST	2021	108	-176	30.96	30.29	30.625	128.715403926	0.0068	0.9168	17.59	18.5068	T	T	-1.04	39.96	16	367.11130167451	47.252879480836	0.3831165569195	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L