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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 7, 2020

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DAY 343 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/08/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 64.94°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 45.18°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 55.06°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.709 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 33 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 527 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.95 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.95 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 250 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 466.37 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 57 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 4 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 27.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-08 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	343	57	64.94	45.17996	55.05998	0	0	0.95	0.95	F	F	32.94	526.94	250	466.36937792312	0.70915034651206	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-07 11:59:59	FORECAST	2020	343	57	69.07	46.7	57.885	0.003	0.003	0.95	0.953	F	F	37.07	531.07	251	466.86824583767	0.81944935865632	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-07 07:59:50	FORECAST	2020	343	57	69.68	46.93	58.305	0.0053	0.0053	0.95	0.9553	F	F	37.68	531.68	251	466.86824583767	0.83317995331201	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-07 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	343	57	65.09	46.56	55.825	0.0073	0.0073	0.95	0.9573	F	F	33.09	527.09	251	466.86824583767	0.71364431118335	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	343	57	70.26	46.97	58.615	0.0119	0.0119	0.95	0.9619	F	F	38.26	521.26	250	466.36937792312	0.84559459480279	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-06 20:00:00	FORECAST	2020	343	57	70.26	47.02	58.64	0.0058	0.0158	0.95	0.9658	F	F	38.26	537.26	250	466.36937792312	0.84559459480279	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-06 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	343	57	69.83	47.09	58.46	0.004	0.014	0.95	0.964	F	F	37.83	536.83	250	466.36937792312	0.83645059382703	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-06 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	343	57	70.43	46.85	58.64	0.0004	0.0104	0.95	0.9604	F	F	38.43	537.43	250	466.36937792312	0.84911484096833	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-06 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	343	57	69.96	47.01	58.485	0.0015	0.0115	0.95	0.9615	F	F	37.96	536.96	250	466.36937792312	0.83925131972277	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-06 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	343	57	70.11	47.21	58.66	0.0027	0.0127	0.95	0.9627	F	F	38.11	537.11	250	466.36937792312	0.84244387768673	93	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	343	57	70.47	47.55	59.01	0.0019	0.0019	0.95	0.9519	F	F	38.47	528.47	250	466.36937792312	0.84993532960691	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	343	57	71.69	48.1	59.895	0.0003	0.0303	0.95	0.9803	F	F	39.69	542.69	250	466.36937792312	0.8735384438019	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	343	57	71.49	47.64	59.565	0.0009	0.0209	0.95	0.9709	F	F	39.49	542.49	250	466.36937792312	0.86985684012386	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	343	57	70.85	48.01	59.43	0.0002	0.0202	0.95	0.9702	F	F	38.85	540.85	250	466.36937792312	0.85758187334314	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	343	57	71.96	48.26	60.11	0.0009	0.0109	0.95	0.9609	F	F	39.96	538.96	250	466.36937792312	0.8783929232766	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-05 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	343	57	71.72	48.45	60.085	0.0008	0.0108	0.95	0.9608	F	F	39.72	542.72	250	466.36937792312	0.87408438228844	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	343	57	71.42	48.52	59.97	0.0019	0.0119	0.95	0.9619	F	F	39.42	523.42	250	466.36937792312	0.86855097915489	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-04 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	343	57	70.7	48.5	59.6	0.0032	0.0132	0.96	0.9732	F	F	38.7	541.7	250	466.36937792312	0.85459549125588	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-04 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	343	57	71.69	48.86	60.275	0.0028	0.0128	0.96	0.9728	F	F	39.69	546.69	250	466.36937792312	0.8735384438019	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	343	57	67.99	52.35	60.17	0.001	0.011	0.96	0.971	F	F	35.99	542.99	250	466.36937792312	0.79346193784198	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-04 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	343	57	67.99	52.35	60.17	0.0013	0.0113	0.96	0.9713	F	F	35.99	540.99	250	466.36937792312	0.79346193784198	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-04 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	343	57	74.94	51.8	63.37	0.0006	0.0106	0.96	0.9706	F	F	42.94	544.94	250	466.36937792312	0.92347713864604	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-04 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	343	57	72.15	52.23	62.19	0.0013	0.0013	0.96	0.9613	F	F	40.15	541.15	250	466.36937792312	0.88172979860957	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-03 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	343	57	72.15	52.23	62.19	0.0011	0.0011	0.97	0.9711	F	F	40.15	552.15	250	466.36937792312	0.88172979860957	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	343	57	71.05	51.06	61.055	0.0012	0.0012	0.97	0.9712	F	F	39.05	545.05	250	466.36937792312	0.86149893753297	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	343	57	76.92	57.52	67.22	0.0004	0.0004	0.96	0.9604	F	F	44.92	553.92	250	466.36937792312	0.9455354893181	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-03 08:04:51	FORECAST	2020	343	57	76.92	57.52	67.22	0.0004	0.0004	0.96	0.9604	F	F	44.92	550.92	250	466.36937792312	0.9455354893181	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-03 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	343	57	80.34	62.22	71.28	0.0004	0.0004	0.96	0.9604	F	F	48.34	567.34	250	466.36937792312	0.97156093717802	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	343	57	82.71	63.95	73.33	0.0024	0.0024	0.96	0.9624	F	F	50.71	565.71	250	466.36937792312	0.98271075646081	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	343	57	82.71	63.95	73.33	0.0028	0.0028	0.95	0.9528	F	F	50.71	578.71	250	466.36937792312	0.98271075646081	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	343	57	80.79	63.5	72.145	0.0028	0.0028	0.95	0.9528	F	F	48.79	575.79	250	466.36937792312	0.97404722907641	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 11:50:50	FORECAST	2020	343	57	76.09	61.39	68.74	0.0019	0.0019	0.95	0.9519	F	F	44.09	563.09	250	466.36937792312	0.9369911203166	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 07:58:04	FORECAST	2020	343	57	76.09	61.39	68.74	0.0019	0.0019	0.96	0.9619	F	F	44.09	564.09	250	466.36937792312	0.9369911203166	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	343	57	75.11	60.52	67.815	0.0019	0.0019	0.97	0.9719	F	F	43.11	567.11	250	466.36937792312	0.92560288446686	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	343	57	78.28	63.04	70.66	0.0011	0.0011	0.96	0.9611	F	F	46.28	564.28	250	466.36937792312	0.95753317400433	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 19:58:04	FORECAST	2020	343	57	78.28	63.04	70.66	0.0011	0.0011	0.97	0.9711	F	F	46.28	579.28	250	466.36937792312	0.95753317400433	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	343	57	77.76	62.69	70.225	0.0011	0.0011	0.96	0.9611	F	F	45.76	577.76	250	466.36937792312	0.95322525139081	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	343	57	81.2	63.99	72.595	0.0022	0.0022	0.96	0.9622	F	F	49.2	581.2	250	466.36937792312	0.97615200283249	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	343	57	81.2	63.99	72.595	0.0022	0.0022	0.97	0.9722	F	F	49.2	582.2	250	466.36937792312	0.97615200283249	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	343	57	81.36	63.95	72.655	0.0022	0.0022	0.96	0.9622	F	F	49.36	582.36	250	466.36937792312	0.9769336090787	93	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 00:00:05	FORECAST	2020	343	57	87.85	69.53	78.69	0.0025	0.0025	0.78	0.7825	F	F	55.85	603.85	250	466.36937792312	0.99487221431303	93	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-08-31 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	343	57	87.85	69.53	78.69	0.0025	0.0025	0.78	0.7825	F	F	55.85	618.85	250	466.36937792312	0.99487221431303	93	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-08-31 15:50:56	FORECAST	2020	343	57	87.38	69.12	78.25	0.0016	0.0016	0.77	0.7716	F	F	55.38	618.38	250	466.36937792312	0.99422457004561	93	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-08-31 12:04:48	FORECAST	2020	343	57	79.15	65.68	72.415	0.0002	0.0002	0.77	0.7702	F	F	47.15	600.15	250	466.36937792312	0.9640207139204	93	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-08-31 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	343	57	66.9	65.68	66.29	0.0002	0.0002	0.77	0.7702	F	F	34.9	583.9	250	466.36937792312	0.76511503179312	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-08-31 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	343	57	67.93	66.89	67.41	0	0	0.78	0.78	F	F	35.93	593.93	250	466.36937792312	0.79195616640262	93	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L