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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 30, 2020

[ Tuesday, September 29, 2020 | Index | Today | Thursday, October 1, 2020 ]

DAY 366 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/01/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 71.40°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 59.97°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 65.69°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.933
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 39
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 443

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.57 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.57 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 273
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 477.38 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 80

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-10-01 04:00:03OBSERVATION20203668071.4000259.9700265.685020005.575.57TF39.40002443.40002273477.3771101668 00.9325086737630691 54315160WETMH
2020-10-01 00:00:03FORECAST20203668060.6960.6960.6900.00020.00025.575.5702TF28.69432.69274477.8342280740800.699658200734429144315227.5WETMH
2020-09-30 12:00:04FORECAST20203668073.4455.4164.42500.00330.00335.575.5733TF41.44445.44274477.8342280740800.9535369185119154315160WETMH
2020-09-30 04:00:05FORECAST20203668069.157.1963.14500.00230.00235.575.5723TF37.1441.1274477.8342280740800.900759045684579154315160WETMH
2020-09-30 00:00:03FORECAST20203668074.8458.0366.43500.00120.00125.575.5712TF42.84430.84273477.377110166800.964659282856859154315160WETMH
2020-09-29 20:00:03FORECAST20203668074.8757.6366.25000.015.575.58TF42.87446.87273477.377110166800.964871395090519154315160WETMH
2020-09-29 16:00:02FORECAST20203668074.9659.9767.465000.015.575.58TF42.96446.96273477.377110166800.965501490257489154315160WETMH
2020-09-29 12:00:03FORECAST20203668075.160.6367.86500.00080.01085.575.5808TF43.1447.1273477.377110166800.96646321210779154315160WETMH
2020-09-29 08:00:02FORECAST20203668074.9160.7367.8200.00020.01025.575.5802TF42.91446.91273477.377110166800.965152590166449154315160WETMH
2020-09-29 03:59:49FORECAST20203668074.760.6767.68500.00080.00085.575.5708TF42.7443.7273477.377110166800.963655535894879154315160WETMH
2020-09-28 23:59:49FORECAST20203668074.9260.8767.89500.00160.00165.575.5716TF42.92449.92273477.377110166800.965222600303559154315160WETMH
2020-09-28 20:00:04FORECAST20203668074.6660.4467.5500.00160.00165.575.5716TF42.66449.66273477.377110166800.963364515951259154315160WETMH
2020-09-28 16:00:02FORECAST20203668074.7160.9467.82500.00040.00045.575.5704TF42.71448.71273477.377110166800.963727995352159154315160WETMH
2020-09-28 12:00:02FORECAST20203668074.6360.8167.7200.00070.00075.575.5707TF42.63448.63273477.377110166800.963145006088489154315160WETMH
2020-09-28 08:00:03FORECAST20203668075.9661.2168.58500.00060.01065.575.5806TF43.96449.96273477.377110166800.971899141704939154315160WETMH
2020-09-28 04:00:03FORECAST20203668076.1561.6368.8900.00050.01055.575.5805TF44.15450.15273477.377110166800.972995761929069154315160WETMH
2020-09-28 00:00:04FORECAST20203668076.1160.7468.42500.00020.00025.575.5702TF44.11450.11273477.377110166800.972767903580259154315160WETMH
2020-09-27 20:00:04FORECAST20203668076.2660.7868.5200.00040.00045.585.5804TF44.26456.26273477.377110166800.973614201645159154315160WETMH
2020-09-27 16:00:02FORECAST20203668076.2860.4368.35500.00040.00045.585.5804TF44.28456.28273477.377110166800.973725366989999154315160WETMH
2020-09-27 11:58:47FORECAST20203668071.1760.5465.8550005.585.58TF39.17451.17273477.377110166800.929738011615529154315160WETMH
2020-09-27 07:58:45FORECAST20203668070.659.9365.2650005.585.58TF38.6445.6273477.377110166800.922497110412669154315160WETMH
2020-09-27 04:00:06FORECAST20203668075.4757.5866.5250005.585.58TF43.47456.47273477.377110166800.968899387765069154315160WETMH
2020-09-27 00:00:03FORECAST20203668072.236066.1150005.15.1TF40.23451.23273477.377110166800.941810666754099154315160WETMH
2020-09-26 20:05:29FORECAST20203668072.2358.3465.2850005.475.47TF40.23459.23273477.377110166800.941810666754099154315160WETMH
2020-09-26 16:00:02FORECAST20203668076.4660.5168.4850005.485.48TF44.46463.46273477.377110166800.974708389545359154315160WETMH
2020-09-26 12:00:02FORECAST20203668076.5860.6568.61500.00080.00085.485.4808TF44.58458.58273477.377110166800.975346511830319154315160WETMH
2020-09-26 08:00:01FORECAST20203668076.5860.6568.61500.00080.00085.455.4508TF44.58456.58273477.377110166800.975346511830319154315160WETMH
2020-09-26 04:00:03FORECAST20203668076.3960.5468.46500.00080.00085.445.4408TF44.39459.39273477.377110166800.974329817827779154315160WETMH
2020-09-26 00:00:03FORECAST20203668075.2159.3967.30004.344.34TF43.21459.21273477.377110166800.967203317859719154315160WETMH
2020-09-25 20:00:02FORECAST20203668075.2159.3967.30005.215.21TF43.21464.21273477.377110166800.967203317859719154315160WETMH
2020-09-25 16:00:03FORECAST20203668075.2959.367.2950005.165.16TF43.29464.29273477.377110166800.967733100243079154315160WETMH
2020-09-25 12:00:03FORECAST20203668074.7657.5166.1350005.475.47TF42.76462.76273477.377110166800.964088526044029154315160WETMH
2020-09-25 07:58:51FORECAST20203668074.7657.5166.1350005.875.87TF42.76454.76273477.377110166800.964088526044029154315160WETMH
2020-09-25 04:00:04FORECAST20203668074.0359.8866.9550006.016.01TF42.03460.03273477.377110166800.958525161275069154315160WETMH
2020-09-25 00:00:04FORECAST20203668075.3659.0267.190005.375.37TF43.36466.36273477.377110166800.968190863682939154315160WETMH
2020-09-24 20:00:02FORECAST20203668075.3659.0267.190005.535.53TF43.36469.36273477.377110166800.968190863682939154315160WETMH
2020-09-24 16:00:04FORECAST20203668074.9658.5766.7650005.555.55TF42.96468.96273477.377110166800.965501490257489154315160WETMH
2020-09-24 12:00:02FORECAST20203668076.0859.3567.7150005.815.81TF44.08464.08273477.377110166800.972595961959729154315160WETMH
2020-09-24 08:00:03FORECAST20203668076.0859.3567.7150005.955.95TF44.08464.08273477.377110166800.972595961959729154315160WETMH
2020-09-24 04:00:03FORECAST20203668076.3157.8567.080006.046.04TF44.31468.31273477.377110166800.973891382583999154315160WETMH
2020-09-23 23:59:53FORECAST20203668076.8860.5268.7000.015.645.65TF44.88474.88273477.377110166800.976883085642319154315160WETMH
2020-09-23 20:00:02FORECAST20203668076.8860.5268.7000.015.985.99TF44.88468.88273477.377110166800.976883085642319154315160WETMH
2020-09-23 16:00:04FORECAST20203668073.6258.2965.9550006.166.16TF41.62461.62273477.377110166800.955107211878579154315160WETMH
2020-09-23 12:00:02FORECAST20203668066.9357.862.365000.026.796.81TT34.93454.93273477.377110166800.861926085188459154315230WETH
2020-09-23 08:00:03FORECAST20203668057.1155.0956.1000.026.826.84TT25.11439.11273477.377110166800.578888674518779134315225WETH
2020-09-23 04:00:05FORECAST20203668059.6658.7959.225000.017.577.58TT27.66442.66273477.377110166800.66643563720969134315225WETH