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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 3, 2020

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DAY 339 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/04/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 70.80°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 54.96°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 62.88°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.837 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 39 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 522 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.99 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.99 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 246 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 464.35 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 53 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 4 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 1 HS_dry: 55.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-04 04:00:02	OBSERVATION	2020	339	53	70.80008	54.96008	62.88008	0	0	0.99	0.99	F	F	38.80008	521.80008	246	464.35484077161	0.83749585656531	92	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-04 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	339	53	65.14	65.14	65.14	0	0	0.99	0.99	F	F	33.14	516.14	247	464.86134940078	0.67628331124218	92	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-03 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	339	53	78.14	65.47	71.805	0.0136	0.0136	0.99	1.0036	F	F	46.14	529.14	247	464.86134940078	0.9524072416814	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-03 08:04:51	FORECAST	2020	339	53	74.35	56.32	65.335	0.0084	0.0084	0.99	0.9984	F	F	42.35	525.35	247	464.86134940078	0.90574339447945	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-03 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	339	53	78.17	57.05	67.61	0.0063	0.0063	0.99	0.9963	F	F	46.17	529.17	247	464.86134940078	0.95268441122886	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	339	53	79.57	55.95	67.76	0.0099	0.0099	0.99	0.9999	F	F	47.57	521.57	246	464.35484077161	0.96424845388357	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	339	53	79.67	58.14	68.905	0.0015	0.0015	0.99	0.9915	F	F	47.67	534.67	246	464.35484077161	0.96497723750468	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	339	53	79.55	58.46	69.005	0.0017	0.0017	0.99	0.9917	F	F	47.55	534.55	246	464.35484077161	0.96410122048954	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 11:50:50	FORECAST	2020	339	53	79.36	58.77	69.065	0.0008	0.0008	0.99	0.9908	F	F	47.36	534.36	246	464.35484077161	0.96267765993018	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 07:58:03	FORECAST	2020	339	53	79.49	59.09	69.29	0.0002	0.0102	0.99	1.0002	F	F	47.49	534.49	246	464.35484077161	0.96365654646369	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	339	53	79.21	59.6	69.405	0	0.02	0.99	1.01	F	F	47.21	533.21	246	464.35484077161	0.96152160510016	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-02 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	339	53	79.22	58.97	69.095	0.0017	0.0117	0.99	1.0017	F	F	47.22	524.22	246	464.35484077161	0.96159957010091	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 19:58:04	FORECAST	2020	339	53	79.67	58.99	69.33	0.0026	0.0226	0.99	1.0126	F	F	47.67	538.67	246	464.35484077161	0.96497723750468	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	339	53	79.75	60.66	70.205	0.0043	0.0143	0.99	1.0043	F	F	47.75	539.75	246	464.35484077161	0.96555147265492	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	339	53	79.55	59.93	69.74	0.0024	0.0124	0.99	1.0024	F	F	47.55	539.55	246	464.35484077161	0.96410122048954	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	339	53	79.54	59.88	69.71	0.0024	0.0224	0.99	1.0124	F	F	47.54	539.54	246	464.35484077161	0.96402741828344	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	339	53	79.6	59.9	69.75	0.0022	0.0122	0.99	1.0022	F	F	47.6	535.6	246	464.35484077161	0.96446837856527	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-01 00:00:05	FORECAST	2020	339	53	79.58	58.41	68.995	0.0025	0.0225	0.8	0.8225	F	F	47.58	540.58	246	464.35484077161	0.96432188535633	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	339	53	79.75	57.92	68.835	0.0019	0.0119	0.81	0.8219	F	F	47.75	555.75	246	464.35484077161	0.96555147265492	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 15:50:56	FORECAST	2020	339	53	79.85	58.78	69.315	0.0017	0.0017	0.81	0.8117	F	F	47.85	555.85	246	464.35484077161	0.96625839621971	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 12:04:48	FORECAST	2020	339	53	76.84	57.18	67.01	0.0025	0.0025	0.81	0.8125	F	F	44.84	552.84	246	464.35484077161	0.93910139793703	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	339	53	76.84	58.07	67.455	0.0033	0.0033	0.81	0.8133	F	F	44.84	548.84	246	464.35484077161	0.93910139793703	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	339	53	81.98	56.98	69.48	0.0033	0.0033	0.82	0.8233	F	F	49.98	554.98	246	464.35484077161	0.9787026030449	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	339	53	81.46	57	69.23	0.0028	0.0028	0.85	0.8528	F	F	49.46	545.46	246	464.35484077161	0.97609243006573	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	339	53	81.46	57	69.23	0.0027	0.0027	0.87	0.8727	F	F	49.46	561.46	246	464.35484077161	0.97609243006573	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	339	53	80.75	56.3	68.525	0.0031	0.0031	0.88	0.8831	F	F	48.75	560.75	246	464.35484077161	0.972100037942	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	339	53	78.25	54.89	66.57	0.001	0.001	0.87	0.871	F	F	46.25	556.25	246	464.35484077161	0.95341722932815	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-30 07:51:19	FORECAST	2020	339	53	78.25	54.89	66.57	0.001	0.001	0.87	0.871	F	F	46.25	551.25	246	464.35484077161	0.95341722932815	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	339	53	78.8	53.68	66.24	0.001	0.001	0.89	0.891	F	F	46.8	566.8	246	464.35484077161	0.95821269563225	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-29 19:51:23	FORECAST	2020	339	53	78.83	53.68	66.255	0.001	0.001	0.93	0.931	F	F	46.83	580.83	246	464.35484077161	0.95846235444968	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	339	53	78.74	53.94	66.34	0.001	0.001	0.94	0.941	F	F	46.74	581.74	246	464.35484077161	0.95770974421549	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	339	53	77.91	52.95	65.43	0.0015	0.0015	1.03	1.0315	F	F	45.91	577.91	246	464.35484077161	0.95023897807628	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-29 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	339	53	77.93	52.93	65.43	0.0015	0.0015	0.91	0.9115	F	F	45.93	579.93	246	464.35484077161	0.95043058747193	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-29 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	339	53	78.08	53	65.54	0.0015	0.0015	0.91	0.9115	F	F	46.08	584.08	246	464.35484077161	0.95184901451408	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-29 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	339	53	81.48	56.98	69.23	0.0021	0.0021	0.87	0.8721	F	F	49.48	581.48	246	464.35484077161	0.97619756599808	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	339	53	81.5	56.94	69.22	0.0021	0.0021	0.93	0.9321	F	F	49.5	601.5	246	464.35484077161	0.97630231392153	92	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-08-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	339	53	81.68	57.29	69.485	0.0022	0.0022	0.94	0.9422	F	F	49.68	601.68	246	464.35484077161	0.97722775958286	92	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-08-28 11:50:40	FORECAST	2020	339	53	75.71	53.54	64.625	0.0042	0.0042	0.98	0.9842	F	F	43.71	588.71	246	464.35484077161	0.92532445946581	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	339	53	75.72	53.5	64.61	0.0042	0.0042	1.05	1.0542	F	F	43.72	584.72	246	464.35484077161	0.92545599331152	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-28 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	339	53	74.8	53.39	64.095	0.0042	0.0042	1.09	1.0942	F	F	42.8	582.8	246	464.35484077161	0.9126014673936	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	339	53	73.71	49.78	61.745	0.001	0.001	0.89	0.891	F	F	41.71	568.71	246	464.35484077161	0.89531995159066	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-27 20:04:42	FORECAST	2020	339	53	73.72	49.78	61.75	0.0008	0.0008	0.89	0.8908	F	F	41.72	583.72	246	464.35484077161	0.8954889718645	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-27 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	339	53	73.81	50.72	62.265	0.001	0.001	0.85	0.851	F	F	41.81	583.81	246	464.35484077161	0.89700129200185	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-08-27 12:04:41	FORECAST	2020	339	53	69	55.66	62.33	0	0	1.31	1.31	F	F	37	575	246	464.35484077161	0.79292443492529	92	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-08-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	339	53	56.31	55.66	55.985	0	0	1.31	1.31	F	F	24.31	562.31	246	464.35484077161	0.35777376478479	92	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-27 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	339	53	55.33	53.63	54.48	0	0	1.31	1.31	F	F	23.33	566.33	246	464.35484077161	0.32433182051819	92	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L