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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 29, 2020

[ Monday, September 28, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, September 30, 2020 ]

DAY 365 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/30/2020 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 75.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 59.73°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 67.37°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.949
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 43
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 433

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.57 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.57 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 272
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 476.92 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 79

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-30 04:00:05OBSERVATION20203657975.0000259.7300867.365050005.575.57TF43.00002433.00002272476.9182519069 00.9493981278792394 54315160WETMH
2020-09-30 00:00:03FORECAST20203657959.3359.3359.330005.575.57TF27.33417.33273477.377110166800.631059448087259434315225WETMH
2020-09-29 12:00:03FORECAST20203657975.1661.9668.5600.00720.00725.575.5772TF43.16433.16273477.377110166800.950772968624939454315160WETMH
2020-09-29 08:00:02FORECAST20203657975.1762.1268.64500.00530.00535.575.5753TF43.17433.17273477.377110166800.950857909790329454315160WETMH
2020-09-29 03:59:49FORECAST20203657972.4957.8765.1800.00270.00275.575.5727TF40.49430.49273477.377110166800.923601935735889454315160WETMH
2020-09-28 23:59:49FORECAST20203657975.7258.6367.1750005.575.57TF43.72435.72272476.918251906900.955352733778029454315160WETMH
2020-09-28 20:00:04FORECAST20203657975.5458.8967.21500.00020.00025.575.5702TF43.54435.54272476.918251906900.953919533330319454315160WETMH
2020-09-28 16:00:01FORECAST20203657975.3360.5267.9250005.575.57TF43.33435.33272476.918251906900.952201163510199454315160WETMH
2020-09-28 12:00:02FORECAST2020365797560.5967.79500.00020.00025.575.5702TF43435272476.918251906900.949397954116369454315160WETMH
2020-09-28 08:00:03FORECAST20203657976.6460.5668.6000.015.575.58TF44.64434.64272476.918251906900.962128350867129454315160WETMH
2020-09-28 04:00:03FORECAST20203657976.7360.7968.76000.015.575.58TF44.73434.73272476.918251906900.962743653876559454315160WETMH
2020-09-28 00:00:04FORECAST20203657976.1159.89680005.575.57TF44.11435.11272476.918251906900.958335264119279454315160WETMH
2020-09-27 20:00:04FORECAST20203657975.9759.8267.89500.00020.01025.575.5802TF43.97440.97272476.918251906900.957283680848279454315160WETMH
2020-09-27 16:00:02FORECAST20203657975.6159.9167.7600.00120.01125.575.5812TF43.61440.61272476.918251906900.954481205781089454315160WETMH
2020-09-27 11:58:47FORECAST20203657976.1759.9768.07000.015.575.58TF44.17441.17272476.918251906900.958779496689989454315160WETMH
2020-09-27 07:58:45FORECAST20203657976.2659.7468000.015.575.58TF44.26436.26272476.918251906900.959438660447279454315160WETMH
2020-09-27 04:00:06FORECAST2020365797659.5867.79000.015.575.58TF44442272476.918251906900.957510802308569454315160WETMH
2020-09-27 00:00:03FORECAST20203657976.1659.5167.835000.025.085.1TF44.16440.16272476.918251906900.958705724893899454315160WETMH
2020-09-26 20:05:29FORECAST20203657976.0659.6367.845000.015.465.47TF44.06448.06272476.918251906900.957962124328149454315160WETMH
2020-09-26 16:00:02FORECAST20203657976.0859.6667.87000.025.465.48TF44.08448.08272476.918251906900.958111702543369454315160WETMH
2020-09-26 12:00:02FORECAST20203657971.359.7665.53000.025.465.48TF39.3443.3272476.918251906900.90833333120799454315160WETMH
2020-09-26 08:00:01FORECAST20203657970.1759.7564.96000.025.435.45TF38.17441.17272476.918251906900.891852261527759454315160WETMH
2020-09-26 04:00:03FORECAST20203657975.3557.6666.505000.015.435.44TF43.35444.35272476.918251906900.952366989921149454315160WETMH
2020-09-26 00:00:03FORECAST20203657976.7259.4368.075000.024.324.34TF44.72444.72272476.918251906900.962675691570569454315160WETMH
2020-09-25 20:00:02FORECAST20203657976.7258.767.71000.025.195.21TF44.72449.72272476.918251906900.962675691570569454315160WETMH
2020-09-25 16:00:02FORECAST20203657976.6358.5267.575000.025.145.16TF44.63449.63272476.918251906900.96205947646889454315160WETMH
2020-09-25 12:00:03FORECAST20203657977.0559.9368.49000.015.465.47TF45.05449.05272476.918251906900.964865762396499454315160WETMH
2020-09-25 07:58:51FORECAST20203657977.0559.9368.49000.025.855.87TF45.05441.05272476.918251906900.964865762396499454315160WETMH
2020-09-25 04:00:04FORECAST20203657977.1959.9468.565000.035.986.01TF45.19447.19272476.918251906900.96576256741559454315160WETMH
2020-09-25 00:00:04FORECAST20203657976.2859.6767.975000.035.345.37TF44.28452.28272476.918251906900.959583976742269454315160WETMH
2020-09-24 20:00:02FORECAST20203657976.2859.6767.975000.025.515.53TF44.28455.28272476.918251906900.959583976742269454315160WETMH
2020-09-24 16:00:04FORECAST20203657976.1459.167.62000.015.545.55TF44.14455.14272476.918251906900.95855786124929454315160WETMH
2020-09-24 12:00:02FORECAST20203657975.0958.3566.72000.025.795.81TF43.09449.09272476.918251906900.950175103899649454315160WETMH
2020-09-24 08:00:03FORECAST20203657975.0958.3566.72000.015.945.95TF43.09449.09272476.918251906900.950175103899649454315160WETMH
2020-09-24 04:00:03FORECAST20203657974.5458.0766.3050006.046.04TF42.54452.54272476.918251906900.945274479889959454315160WETMH
2020-09-23 23:59:53FORECAST20203657971.1253.6762.395000.045.615.65TF39.12459.12272476.918251906900.905840121325569454315160WETMH
2020-09-23 20:00:02FORECAST20203657971.1253.6762.395000.025.975.99TF39.12453.12272476.918251906900.905840121325569454315160WETMH
2020-09-23 16:00:04FORECAST20203657969.9753.7861.875000.126.046.16TF37.97448.97272476.918251906900.8887265735333594543251120WETMH
2020-09-23 12:00:02FORECAST20203657969.253.8961.545000.536.286.81TT37.2449.2272476.918251906900.8760922246008794543351180WETH
2020-09-23 08:00:03FORECAST20203657968.9852.9560.965000.536.316.84TT36.98442.98272476.918251906900.8723053421259694543351180WETH
2020-09-23 04:00:05FORECAST20203657970.1753.3961.78000.656.937.58TT38.17444.17272476.918251906900.8918522615277594543351180WETH
2020-09-22 23:58:58FORECAST20203657971.7455.6163.675001.047.918.95TT39.74454.74272476.918251906900.9142220483242794543451240WETH
2020-09-22 19:58:59FORECAST20203657971.7455.6163.675001.048.199.23TT39.74457.74272476.918251906900.9142220483242794543451240WETH
2020-09-22 16:00:02FORECAST20203657972.1656.6364.395000.897.077.96TT40.16444.16272476.918251906900.91957534270494543351180WETH
2020-09-22 11:59:03FORECAST20203657964.0357.3560.69000.36.857.15TT32.03452.03272476.918251906900.76592844390479444325255WETH
2020-09-22 08:00:05FORECAST20203657958.2757.4557.86000.37.077.37TT26.27440.27272476.918251906900.597360225990729434325250WETH
2020-09-22 04:00:05FORECAST20203657959.1558.8759.01000.236.817.04TT27.15444.15272476.918251906900.625399593737739434325250WETH