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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 28, 2020

[ Sunday, September 27, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 29, 2020 ]

DAY 364 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/29/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 72.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.19°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.10°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.928
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 40
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 425

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.49 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.08 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.57 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 271
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 476.46 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 78

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 120.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-29 03:59:49OBSERVATION20203647871.9999650.1900861.09502000.495.085.57TF39.99996424.99996271476.45764666845 00.9275331791659695 543251120WETMH
2020-09-28 12:00:02FORECAST20203647874.4360.3867.40500.00190.49195.085.5719TF42.43427.43272476.918251906900.9526644668668595543351180WETMH
2020-09-28 08:00:03FORECAST20203647872.1155.964.00500.00770.49775.085.5777TF40.11425.11272476.918251906900.9288567688128195543351180WETMH
2020-09-28 04:00:03FORECAST20203647871.8549.6760.7600.00810.49815.085.5781TF39.85424.85272476.918251906900.9256992592277295543351180WETMH
2020-09-28 00:00:04FORECAST20203647872.4751.7562.1100.0040.4945.085.574TF40.47426.47271476.4576466684500.9330578664216995543351180WETMH
2020-09-27 20:00:04FORECAST20203647872.2752.7362.500.0030.5035.085.583TF40.27432.27271476.4576466684500.9307481806541995543351180WETMH
2020-09-27 16:00:02FORECAST20203647871.8453.4762.655000.55.085.58TF39.84431.84271476.4576466684500.9255757204355295543351180WETMH
2020-09-27 11:58:47FORECAST20203647871.9951.9961.99000.55.085.58TF39.99431.99271476.4576466684500.927412455983695543351180WETMH
2020-09-27 07:58:45FORECAST20203647872.1552.1262.135000.55.085.58TF40.15427.15271476.4576466684500.9293332874975595543351180WETMH
2020-09-27 04:00:06FORECAST20203647871.9351.6461.785000.55.085.58TF39.93432.93271476.4576466684500.9266819577345795543351180WETMH
2020-09-27 00:00:02FORECAST20203647871.7151.4761.59000.025.085.1TF39.71430.71271476.4576466684500.923955462851679554315160WETMH
2020-09-26 20:05:29FORECAST20203647871.7251.3661.54000.395.085.47TF39.72438.72271476.4576466684500.9240810404547295543251120WETMH
2020-09-26 16:00:02FORECAST20203647871.7952.6562.22000.45.085.48TF39.79438.79271476.4576466684500.924955681081795543251120WETMH
2020-09-26 12:00:02FORECAST20203647871.7751.7461.755000.45.085.48TF39.77438.77271476.4576466684500.9247065689304695543251120WETMH
2020-09-26 08:00:01FORECAST20203647871.7851.4861.63000.375.085.45TF39.78437.78271476.4576466684500.9248312034222895543251120WETMH
2020-09-26 04:00:03FORECAST20203647871.5551.1661.355000.365.085.44TF39.55435.55271476.4576466684500.9219247283261395543251120WETMH
2020-09-26 00:00:03FORECAST20203647872.0751.7261.895000.483.864.34TF40.07435.07271476.4576466684500.9283777951144695543251120WETMH
2020-09-25 20:00:02FORECAST20203647871.7551.4861.615000.454.765.21TF39.75439.75271476.4576466684500.9244568290457995543251120WETMH
2020-09-25 16:00:02FORECAST20203647871.5251.1761.345000.44.765.16TF39.52439.52271476.4576466684500.9215394427229695543251120WETMH
2020-09-25 12:00:03FORECAST20203647866.6251.559.06000.714.765.47TF34.62438.62271476.4576466684500.837814403777689544335282.5WETMH
2020-09-25 07:58:51FORECAST20203647865.8951.5958.74000.495.385.87TF33.89430.89271476.4576466684500.82160701036879544325255WETMH
2020-09-25 04:00:04FORECAST20203647872.1351.561.815000.475.546.01TF40.13437.13271476.4576466684500.9290953346133795543251120WETMH
2020-09-25 00:00:04FORECAST20203647872.7351.9762.35000.384.995.37TF40.73442.73271476.4576466684500.9359711219706495543251120WETMH
2020-09-24 20:00:02FORECAST20203647872.7351.9762.35000.285.255.53TF40.73445.73271476.4576466684500.9359711219706495543251120WETMH
2020-09-24 16:00:04FORECAST20203647872.3651.9162.135000.35.255.55TF40.36446.36271476.4576466684500.9317949999584495543251120WETMH
2020-09-24 12:00:02FORECAST20203647871.2350.2860.755000.325.495.81TF39.23441.23271476.4576466684500.9177406537947895543251120WETMH
2020-09-24 08:00:03FORECAST20203647871.2350.2860.755000.375.585.95TF39.23441.23271476.4576466684500.9177406537947895543251120WETMH
2020-09-24 04:00:03FORECAST20203647870.7349.5460.13500.00020.22025.826.0402TF38.73444.73271476.4576466684500.9108693939992295543251120WETMH
2020-09-23 23:59:53FORECAST20203647870.2150.2160.2100.00590.35595.295.6459TF38.21455.21271476.4576466684500.9032810011974295543251120WETMH
2020-09-23 20:00:02FORECAST20203647870.2150.2160.2100.00590.44595.545.9859TF38.21449.21271476.4576466684500.9032810011974295543251120WETMH
2020-09-23 16:00:04FORECAST20203647868.5347.4157.9700.00240.58245.586.1624TF36.53445.53271476.4576466684500.875553392418295543351180WETMH
2020-09-23 12:00:02FORECAST20203647868.5244.7256.6200.01691.64695.166.8069TT36.52446.52271476.4576466684500.8753732576760695543551300WETH
2020-09-23 08:00:03FORECAST20203647865.5244.7255.1200.01591.58595.256.8359TT33.52440.52271476.4576466684500.8130166154807695443552137.5WETH
2020-09-23 04:00:05FORECAST20203647865.7843.7454.7600.01182.61184.977.5818TT33.78440.78271476.4576466684500.8190794097862995443552137.5WETH
2020-09-22 23:58:58FORECAST20203647868.0851.4159.74500.02363.46365.498.9536TT36.08450.08271476.4576466684500.8672669248133195543551300WETH
2020-09-22 19:58:59FORECAST20203647868.0851.4159.74500.02363.57365.669.2336TT36.08453.08271476.4576466684500.8672669248133195543551300WETH
2020-09-22 16:00:02FORECAST20203647866.6552.0459.34500.02152.54155.427.9615TT34.65438.65271476.4576466684500.8384593366714995443552137.5WETH
2020-09-22 11:59:03FORECAST20203647868.9651.9760.46500.05541.80545.347.1454TT36.96454.96271476.4576466684500.8831280369179695543551300WETH
2020-09-22 08:00:04FORECAST20203647868.9651.9760.46500.05541.80545.567.3654TT36.96448.96271476.4576466684500.8831280369179695543551300WETH
2020-09-22 04:00:05FORECAST20203647871.2452.8462.0400.00221.60225.447.0422TT39.24452.24271476.4576466684500.9178739041102495543551300WETH
2020-09-22 00:00:04FORECAST20203647871.4851.6861.5800.00920.98926.267.2492TT39.48446.48271476.4576466684500.9210234962441895543351180WETH
2020-09-21 20:00:02FORECAST20203647871.4851.6861.5800.0090.9896.197.179TT39.48459.48271476.4576466684500.9210234962441895543351180WETH
2020-09-21 16:00:02FORECAST20203647871.2252.0861.6500.01261.12266.267.3826TT39.22461.22271476.4576466684500.9176072412703695543451240WETH
2020-09-21 12:00:03FORECAST20203647859.8952.6956.2900.00381.28385.556.8338TT27.89442.89271476.4576466684500.6538135921640295343452100WETH
2020-09-21 08:00:04FORECAST20203647853.8652.8853.3700.0031.2835.316.593TT21.86437.86271476.4576466684500.44719369854049524345290WETH
2020-09-21 04:05:22FORECAST20203647853.8853.2453.56001.085.396.47TT21.88431.88271476.4576466684500.44788680621589524345290WETH