Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 23, 2020

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DAY 359 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/24/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.36°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.63°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.00°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.241 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 14 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 492 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 2.28 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.44 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.59 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.03 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 266 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 474.13 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 73 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 3 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 100.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-24 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	359	73	46.36004	43.62998	44.99501	0	2.28	2.44	0.59	3.03	T	F	14.36004	492.36004	266	474.12818211957	0	0.24097982221224	94	1	4	3	5	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2020-09-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	359	73	49	41.52	45.26	0	1.9175	2.0775	0.59	2.6675	F	F	17	495	267	474.59762252586	0	0.30815443153536	94	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	359	73	48.96	40.78	44.87	0	2.2231	2.3831	0.59	2.9731	T	F	16.96	494.96	267	474.59762252586	0	0.30707801447983	94	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-23 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	359	73	47.68	40.73	44.205	0	1.9481	2.1081	0.59	2.6981	T	F	15.68	493.68	267	474.59762252586	0	0.27354743544018	94	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-22 23:58:58	FORECAST	2020	359	73	48.45	42.04	45.245	0	2.1569	2.1769	0.59	2.7669	T	F	16.45	498.45	266	474.12818211957	0	0.29350161279816	94	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-22 19:58:59	FORECAST	2020	359	73	49.64	41.76	45.7	0	2.1718	2.1918	0.59	2.7818	T	F	17.64	499.64	266	474.12818211957	0	0.32559640923301	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	359	73	49.61	41.72	45.665	0	1.9955	2.0155	0.59	2.6055	F	F	17.61	499.61	266	474.12818211957	0	0.3247698383176	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-22 11:59:03	FORECAST	2020	359	73	49.19	43.65	46.42	0	1.9113	1.9313	0.59	2.5213	F	F	17.19	499.19	266	474.12818211957	0	0.31328983066723	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	359	73	47.53	42.9	45.215	0	1.9916	2.0316	0.59	2.6216	F	F	15.53	491.53	266	474.12818211957	0	0.26973975816649	94	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-22 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	359	73	49.13	43.18	46.155	0	1.9902	2.0402	0.59	2.6302	F	F	17.13	496.13	266	474.12818211957	0	0.31166415057841	94	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-22 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	359	73	48.12	42.46	45.29	0	2.1419	2.2019	0.59	2.7919	T	F	16.12	491.12	266	474.12818211957	0	0.28486759644727	94	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	359	73	48.17	42.45	45.31	0	2.056	2.116	0.59	2.706	T	F	16.17	503.17	266	474.12818211957	0	0.28616796973547	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-21 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	359	73	48.62	42.22	45.42	0	2.1441	2.2041	0.59	2.7941	T	F	16.62	504.62	266	474.12818211957	0	0.29799618391848	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	359	73	48.3	41.88	45.09	0	2.4267	2.4867	0.59	3.0767	T	F	16.3	503.3	266	474.12818211957	0	0.28956205735756	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-21 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	359	73	48.74	41.98	45.36	0	2.145	2.225	0.59	2.815	T	F	16.74	503.74	266	474.12818211957	0	0.30118756793329	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-21 04:05:21	FORECAST	2020	359	73	48.81	42.54	45.675	0	2.1704	2.2504	0.59	2.8404	T	F	16.81	496.81	266	474.12818211957	0	0.30305628346432	94	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-21 00:00:06	FORECAST	2020	359	73	49.74	40.62	45.18	0	2.1571	2.2271	0.44	2.6671	T	F	17.74	496.74	266	474.12818211957	0	0.32835782165157	94	2	4	3	5	5	2	112.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	359	73	49.99	41.91	45.95	0	2.3926	2.4426	0.46	2.9026	T	F	17.99	508.99	266	474.12818211957	0	0.33530220265211	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	359	73	49.54	41.47	45.505	0	2.4222	2.4822	0.46	2.9422	T	F	17.54	507.54	266	474.12818211957	0	0.32284452829194	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	359	73	47.14	41.55	44.345	0	1.8805	1.9405	0.46	2.4005	F	F	15.14	506.14	266	474.12818211957	0	0.25996549754024	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	359	73	46.82	42.19	44.505	0	2.0655	2.1355	0.47	2.6055	F	F	14.82	504.82	266	474.12818211957	0	0.25208405724754	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	359	73	49.82	41.42	45.62	0	1.8445	1.9145	0.48	2.3945	F	F	17.82	506.82	266	474.12818211957	0	0.33057372762541	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	359	73	55.25	45.09	50.17	0	1.0776	1.1476	0.12	1.2676	F	F	23.25	514.25	266	474.12818211957	0	0.49092158566607	94	2	4	4	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2020-09-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	359	73	55.25	46.6	50.925	0	1.0667	1.1067	0.21	1.3167	F	F	23.25	520.25	266	474.12818211957	0	0.49092158566607	94	2	4	4	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2020-09-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	359	73	55.33	46.64	50.985	0	1.325	1.375	0.21	1.585	F	F	23.33	519.33	266	474.12818211957	0	0.49336365339073	94	2	4	4	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2020-09-19 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	359	73	52.12	45.11	48.615	0	2.0486	2.0786	0.2	2.2786	F	F	20.12	509.12	266	474.12818211957	0	0.39654380825549	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-19 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	359	73	52.12	45.11	48.615	0	2.0486	2.0786	0.31	2.3886	F	F	20.12	503.12	266	474.12818211957	0	0.39654380825549	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-19 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	359	73	52.81	44.33	48.57	0	2.0076	2.0376	0.39	2.4276	F	F	20.81	507.81	266	474.12818211957	0	0.41703048122816	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-19 00:05:17	FORECAST	2020	359	73	53.18	44.43	48.805	0	1.6058	1.6358	0.33	1.9658	F	F	21.18	505.18	266	474.12818211957	0	0.42811343117229	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	359	73	53.18	44.43	48.805	0	1.6058	1.6358	0.99	2.6258	F	F	21.18	510.18	266	474.12818211957	0	0.42811343117229	94	2	4	4	5	5	2	125	DRY	VH
2020-09-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	359	73	57.07	46.04	51.555	0	1.08	1.09	0.97	2.06	F	F	25.07	520.07	266	474.12818211957	0	0.54638370989285	94	3	4	4	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2020-09-18 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	359	73	58	46.95	52.475	0	0.4359	0.4459	1.18	1.6259	F	F	26	521	266	474.12818211957	0	0.57444590122952	94	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-18 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	359	73	58	46.95	52.475	0	0.4359	0.4459	0.83	1.2759	F	F	26	522	266	474.12818211957	0	0.57444590122952	94	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	359	73	57.45	47.68	52.565	0	0.467	0.487	0.88	1.367	F	F	25.45	523.45	266	474.12818211957	0	0.55788617220135	94	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-17 23:59:18	FORECAST	2020	359	73	57.23	47.44	52.335	0	0.5955	0.6055	0.78	1.3855	F	F	25.23	529.23	266	474.12818211957	0	0.55123216483226	94	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-17 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	359	73	57.23	47.44	52.335	0	0.5955	0.6055	0.77	1.3755	F	F	25.23	530.23	266	474.12818211957	0	0.55123216483226	94	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-17 15:59:16	FORECAST	2020	359	73	60.55	48.78	54.665	0	0.0671	0.0771	1.07	1.1471	F	F	28.55	532.55	266	474.12818211957	0	0.64908914731448	94	3	4	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	359	73	62.21	48.71	55.46	0	0.3938	0.4438	0.82	1.2638	F	F	30.21	527.21	266	474.12818211957	0	0.69494284679454	94	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	359	73	62.21	48.71	55.46	0	0.3938	0.4438	0.75	1.1938	F	F	30.21	526.21	266	474.12818211957	0	0.69494284679454	94	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-17 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	359	73	60.26	49.05	54.655	0	0.3945	0.4445	1	1.4445	F	F	28.26	525.26	266	474.12818211957	0	0.64082612508359	94	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	359	73	62.82	47.16	54.99	0	0.3963	0.5263	0.65	1.1763	F	F	30.82	519.82	266	474.12818211957	0	0.71109899852717	94	4	4	4	3	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2020-09-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	359	73	62.84	47.14	54.99	0	0.2829	0.4129	0.76	1.1729	F	F	30.84	544.84	266	474.12818211957	0	0.71162183076295	94	4	4	4	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	359	73	60.55	47.05	53.8	0	0.1995	0.3195	1.13	1.4495	F	F	28.55	543.55	266	474.12818211957	0	0.64908914731448	94	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	359	73	51.93	45.48	48.705	0	0.0081	0.0281	0.95	0.9781	F	F	19.93	530.93	266	474.12818211957	0	0.39094977861305	94	2	4	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	359	73	47.23	45.76	46.495	0	0.006	0.026	0.89	0.916	F	F	15.23	523.23	266	474.12818211957	0	0.26220479921577	94	2	4	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	359	73	47.16	46.27	46.715	0	0	0.02	0.96	0.98	F	F	15.16	523.16	266	474.12818211957	0	0.2604622675763	94	2	4	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L