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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 20, 2020

[ Saturday, September 19, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, September 21, 2020 ]

DAY 356 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/21/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.14°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.20°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.67°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.454
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 553

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.15 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.58 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.59 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 263
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 472.71 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 70

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 75.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-21 04:05:21OBSERVATION20203567053.1399242.2000647.6699900.150000000000030.580000000000030.010.59000000000003FF21.13992553.13992263472.70911005348 00.4535274628902891 24435275DRYVH
2020-09-21 00:00:05FORECAST20203567046.8246.8246.8200.00010.43010.010.4401FF14.82546.82264473.1839327008800.247655574779349114425245DRYM
2020-09-20 12:00:03FORECAST20203567058.1347.1752.6500.02310.45310.010.4631FF26.13558.13264473.1839327008800.629089360910869134425255DRYH
2020-09-20 08:00:02FORECAST20203567057.4643.9250.6900.02990.45990.010.4699FF25.46557.46264473.1839327008800.606240185558469134425255DRYH
2020-09-20 04:00:04FORECAST20203567055.1944.4849.83500.04090.47090.010.4809FF23.19555.19264473.1839327008800.52653282093449134425255DRYH
2020-09-20 00:00:02FORECAST20203567057.5344.8151.1700.0730.1130.010.123FF25.53556.53263472.7091100534800.608646120770969134425255DRYH
2020-09-19 20:00:03FORECAST20203567057.8244.3451.0800.05080.20080.010.2108FF25.82562.82263472.7091100534800.618568408457869134425255DRYH
2020-09-19 16:00:03FORECAST20203567057.9446.1852.0600.04660.19660.010.2066FF25.94562.94263472.7091100534800.622651916248899134425255DRYH
2020-09-19 12:00:03FORECAST20203567057.1246.4851.800.04430.19430.010.2043FF25.12562.12263472.7091100534800.594498054131579134425255DRYH
2020-09-19 08:00:04FORECAST20203567057.2946.7252.00500.04410.30410.010.3141FF25.29557.29263472.7091100534800.600380465817919134425255DRYH
2020-09-19 04:00:05FORECAST20203567056.9646.3751.66500.04070.38070.010.3907FF24.96558.96263472.7091100534800.588942079831169134425255DRYH
2020-09-19 00:05:17FORECAST20203567057.7646.4352.09500.05220.32220.010.3322FF25.76556.76263472.7091100534800.616521663855549134425255DRYH
2020-09-18 20:00:02FORECAST20203567058.3146.5652.43500.03290.98290.010.9929FF26.31562.31263472.7091100534800.635154890388399134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-18 16:00:02FORECAST20203567053.5946.550.04500.02940.95940.010.9694FF21.59561.59263472.7091100534800.469506886585819124435275DRYVH
2020-09-18 12:00:02FORECAST20203567058.4345.5451.98500.02861.16860.011.1786FF26.43565.43263472.7091100534800.6391799813635591344452110DRYVH
2020-09-18 08:00:04FORECAST20203567058.0744.851.43500.02410.82410.010.8341FF26.07566.07263472.7091100534800.62706028532089134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-18 04:00:04FORECAST20203567056.8545.7451.29500.01980.86980.010.8798FF24.85562.85263472.7091100534800.585111901126749134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-17 23:59:18FORECAST20203567058.0346.1252.07500.03470.77470.010.7847FF26.03568.03263472.7091100534800.625705604132459134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-17 20:00:04FORECAST20203567058.8746.1152.4900.03230.76230.010.7723FF26.87568.87263472.7091100534800.653804285683639134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-17 15:59:16FORECAST20203567058.9646.4752.71500.04041.06040.011.0704FF26.96569.96263472.7091100534800.6567684314169691344452110DRYVH
2020-09-17 12:00:03FORECAST20203567052.1146.4649.28500.05060.81060.010.8206FF20.11563.11263472.7091100534800.417284202659519124435275DRYVH
2020-09-17 08:00:03FORECAST20203567053.6246.4650.0400.04590.72590.020.7459FF21.62561.62263472.7091100534800.47057402867039124435275DRYVH
2020-09-17 04:00:03FORECAST20203567058.6944.8651.77500.05040.97040.031.0004FF26.69563.69263472.7091100534800.647847816887129134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-17 00:00:04FORECAST20203567060.7443.4352.08500.03030.62030.030.6503FF28.74552.74263472.7091100534800.713224424538469144435290DRYVH
2020-09-16 20:00:03FORECAST20203567060.7542.7351.7400.0190.6990.060.759FF28.75577.75263472.7091100534800.713528842649069144435290DRYVH
2020-09-16 16:00:02FORECAST20203567060.8744.6452.75500.02031.08030.051.1303FF28.87577.87263472.7091100534800.7171698591146791444452120DRYVH
2020-09-16 12:00:02FORECAST20203567061.9545.9453.94500.01310.88310.070.9531FF29.95573.95263472.7091100534800.74890160008669144435290DRYVH
2020-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20203567061.9645.9453.9500.01310.83310.060.8931FF29.96570.96263472.7091100534800.749186370196269144435290DRYVH
2020-09-16 04:00:03FORECAST20203567062.0145.1353.5700.01270.91270.050.9627FF30.01573.01263472.7091100534800.750607655929679144435290DRYVH
2020-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20203567058.2743.8451.05500.01350.99350.041.0335FF26.27562.27263472.7091100534800.6338098521804991344452110DRYVH
2020-09-15 20:00:03FORECAST20203567058.2943.8451.06500.01350.96350.081.0435FF26.29577.29263472.7091100534800.634482577908299134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-15 16:00:02FORECAST20203567059.6743.651.63500.01211.07210.091.1621FF27.67578.67263472.7091100534800.6798027759763591344452110DRYVH
2020-09-15 12:00:02FORECAST20203567062.8243.553.1600.00580.51580.20.7158FF30.82579.82263472.7091100534800.773025156196699144435290DRYVH
2020-09-15 08:00:03FORECAST20203567062.8543.553.17500.00580.61580.220.8358FF30.85574.85263472.7091100534800.7738330569499144435290DRYVH
2020-09-15 04:00:05FORECAST20203567064.0442.9853.5100.00360.53360.350.8836FF32.04579.04263472.7091100534800.804546145568729144435290DRYVH
2020-09-15 00:00:02FORECAST20203567059.745.1852.4400.01470.51470.370.8847FF27.7573.7263472.7091100534800.68076175361839134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20203567061.6645.4753.56500.01660.50660.280.7866FF29.66579.66263472.7091100534800.740569530341419144435290DRYVH
2020-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20203567064.0544.5954.3200.01410.44410.230.6741FF32.05590.05263472.7091100534800.804793036419269144425260DRYH
2020-09-14 11:59:27FORECAST20203567063.3243.653.4600.00970.41970.470.8897FF31.32581.32263472.7091100534800.786276525411139144425260DRYH
2020-09-14 08:00:03FORECAST20203567062.5443.452.9700.00970.41970.460.8797FF30.54574.54263472.7091100534800.76540687784789144425260DRYH
2020-09-14 03:59:29FORECAST20203567062.0844.6953.38500.00980.46980.50.9698FF30.08581.08263472.7091100534800.752590252076719144425260DRYH
2020-09-14 00:05:08FORECAST20203567058.9141.2850.09500.00290.86290.351.2129FF26.91570.91263472.7091100534800.655122859660799134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-13 20:00:03FORECAST20203567058.9141.5150.2100.00290.86290.391.2529FF26.91587.91263472.7091100534800.655122859660799134435282.5DRYVH
2020-09-13 16:00:02FORECAST20203567060.3540.1250.23500.00170.91170.431.3417FF28.35589.35263472.7091100534800.701234379949949144435290DRYVH
2020-09-13 12:00:03FORECAST20203567052.1741.1546.6600.00140.42140.430.8514FF20.17583.17263472.7091100534800.419379521163869124425250DRYMH
2020-09-13 08:00:04FORECAST20203567045.8244.7745.29500.03340.59340.431.0234FF13.82574.82263472.7091100534800.220257570114189114435267.5DRYH
2020-09-13 04:00:03FORECAST20203567044.9844.8244.900.02120.65120.421.0712FF12.98573.98263472.7091100534800.198648095245319114435267.5DRYH