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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 18, 2020

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DAY 354 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/19/2020 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 50.65°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 44.45°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 47.55°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.332 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 19 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 586 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.03 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.04 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.00 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.04 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 261 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 471.75 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 68 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 4 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 25.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-19 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2020	354	68	50.64998	44.45006	47.55002	0.03000000000003	0.04000000000003	0	0.04000000000003	F	F	18.64998	585.64998	261	471.75403460025	0.33204824853734	92	2	4	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-19 00:05:17	FORECAST	2020	354	68	47.8	47.8	47.8	0.0104	0.0204	0	0.0204	F	F	15.8	582.8	262	472.23247964746	0.24499571910623	92	1	4	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-09-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	354	68	53.93	45.91	49.92	0.6813	0.6913	0	0.6913	F	F	21.93	588.93	262	472.23247964746	0.44449005206104	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-18 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	354	68	55.44	45.42	50.43	0.5487	0.5587	0	0.5587	F	F	23.44	590.44	262	472.23247964746	0.49842768125906	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	354	68	56.07	46.04	51.055	0.6081	0.6181	0	0.6181	F	F	24.07	591.07	262	472.23247964746	0.52099699190092	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-17 23:59:17	FORECAST	2020	354	68	54.95	45.39	50.17	0.39	0.4	0	0.4	F	F	22.95	591.95	261	471.75403460025	0.48087355170026	92	2	4	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-09-17 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	354	68	55.41	45.8	50.605	0.4285	0.4385	0	0.4385	F	F	23.41	592.41	261	471.75403460025	0.49735250528722	92	2	4	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-09-17 15:59:16	FORECAST	2020	354	68	55.69	45.39	50.54	0.7376	0.7476	0	0.7476	F	F	23.69	592.69	261	471.75403460025	0.50738718277565	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	354	68	56.02	45.7	50.86	0.502	0.512	0	0.512	F	F	24.02	593.02	261	471.75403460025	0.51920728326074	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	354	68	55.98	45.58	50.78	0.2953	0.3153	0	0.3153	F	F	23.98	592.98	261	471.75403460025	0.51777523581085	92	3	4	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-17 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	354	68	56.42	44.66	50.54	0.5553	0.5853	0	0.5853	F	F	24.42	588.42	261	471.75403460025	0.53351108792122	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	354	68	54.2	46.83	50.515	0.3827	0.4127	0	0.4127	F	F	22.2	576.2	261	471.75403460025	0.45408825077971	92	2	4	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-09-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	354	68	53.67	46.72	50.195	0.4133	0.4733	0	0.4733	F	F	21.67	595.67	261	471.75403460025	0.43527793842503	92	2	4	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-09-16 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	354	68	54.35	46.47	50.41	0.6483	0.6983	0	0.6983	F	F	22.35	596.35	261	471.75403460025	0.4594325589287	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	354	68	54.47	46.38	50.425	0.6163	0.6863	0	0.6863	F	F	22.47	594.47	261	471.75403460025	0.4637133368166	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	354	68	54.19	46.18	50.185	0.5663	0.6263	0	0.6263	F	F	22.19	591.19	261	471.75403460025	0.45373224807796	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	354	68	53.71	46.51	50.11	0.6681	0.7181	0	0.7181	F	F	21.71	589.71	261	471.75403460025	0.43669303141266	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	354	68	54.03	46.03	50.03	0.6909	0.7309	0	0.7309	F	F	22.03	583.03	261	471.75403460025	0.44804145259472	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-15 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	354	68	53.75	45.66	49.705	0.6714	0.7214	0.03	0.7514	F	F	21.75	597.75	261	471.75403460025	0.43810893490944	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	354	68	53.54	46.15	49.845	0.7585	0.8185	0.03	0.8485	F	F	21.54	597.54	261	471.75403460025	0.43068469862359	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	354	68	52.75	47.03	49.89	0.407	0.577	0.03	0.607	F	F	20.75	594.75	261	471.75403460025	0.40299498429005	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	354	68	52.59	47.68	50.135	0.5095	0.6795	0.05	0.7295	F	F	20.59	589.59	261	471.75403460025	0.39744097737842	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-15 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	354	68	52.15	46.46	49.305	0.4392	0.7292	0.06	0.7892	F	F	20.15	591.15	261	471.75403460025	0.38227742920908	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	354	68	56.64	46.16	51.4	0.4001	0.6801	0.09	0.7701	F	F	24.64	588.64	261	471.75403460025	0.5413609544878	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	354	68	50.37	46.36	48.365	0.3659	0.5659	0.08	0.6459	F	F	18.37	596.37	261	471.75403460025	0.32296709241576	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	354	68	55.28	46.07	50.675	0.3356	0.5056	0.06	0.5656	F	F	23.28	601.28	261	471.75403460025	0.49269373188118	92	2	4	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 11:59:27	FORECAST	2020	354	68	49.86	46.95	48.405	0.2436	0.5536	0.16	0.7136	F	F	17.86	593.86	261	471.75403460025	0.30669625279031	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	354	68	49.02	45.88	47.45	0.2436	0.5636	0.14	0.7036	F	F	17.02	589.02	261	471.75403460025	0.28071940904171	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 03:59:29	FORECAST	2020	354	68	56.55	46.24	51.395	0.2746	0.6146	0.16	0.7746	F	F	24.55	596.55	261	471.75403460025	0.53815141883205	92	3	4	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 00:05:08	FORECAST	2020	354	68	50.07	46.37	48.22	0.6837	0.8137	0.22	1.0337	F	F	18.07	592.07	261	471.75403460025	0.31335240752899	92	2	4	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	354	68	50.08	46.37	48.225	0.6837	0.8337	0.24	1.0737	F	F	18.08	609.08	261	471.75403460025	0.31367091081239	92	2	4	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	354	68	51.05	46.93	48.99	0.6579	0.8479	0.24	1.0879	F	F	19.05	607.05	261	471.75403460025	0.34519465114444	92	2	4	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	354	68	57.71	48.16	52.935	0.2218	0.3918	0.26	0.6518	F	F	25.71	608.71	261	471.75403460025	0.57925519055642	92	3	4	5	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	354	68	57.72	48.17	52.945	0.2218	0.4018	0.25	0.6518	F	F	25.72	607.72	261	471.75403460025	0.57960646067928	92	3	4	5	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	354	68	56.62	48.02	52.32	0.301	0.441	0.28	0.721	F	F	24.62	607.62	261	471.75403460025	0.54064794985213	92	3	4	5	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-13 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	354	68	53.85	46.96	50.405	0.292	0.372	0.32	0.692	F	F	21.85	603.85	261	471.75403460025	0.44165212257944	92	2	4	5	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-12 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	354	68	53.86	46.96	50.41	0.292	0.372	0.64	1.012	F	F	21.86	622.86	261	471.75403460025	0.44200670308277	92	2	4	5	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-12 15:59:34	FORECAST	2020	354	68	54.36	47.61	50.985	0.3422	0.5622	0.66	1.2222	F	F	22.36	623.36	261	471.75403460025	0.45978911776694	92	2	4	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	354	68	51.09	47.15	49.12	0.8222	1.0822	0.35	1.4322	F	F	19.09	608.09	261	471.75403460025	0.34651987998374	92	2	4	5	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 07:50:39	FORECAST	2020	354	68	51.1	47.16	49.13	0.8222	1.0822	0.21	1.2922	F	F	19.1	603.1	261	471.75403460025	0.34685148152237	92	2	4	5	4	5	2	110	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 04:05:07	FORECAST	2020	354	68	53.9	48.33	51.115	0.5353	0.8053	0.43	1.2353	F	F	21.9	618.9	261	471.75403460025	0.44342548699023	92	2	4	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	354	68	61.9	50.94	56.42	0.0973	0.1573	0.19	0.3473	F	F	29.9	624.9	261	471.75403460025	0.71783308220223	92	4	4	5	2	5	2	65	DRY	H
2020-09-11 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	354	68	64.52	51.41	57.965	0.0775	0.2375	0.31	0.5475	F	F	32.52	641.52	261	471.75403460025	0.79155764112419	92	4	4	5	2	5	2	65	DRY	H
2020-09-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	354	68	58.4	50.74	54.57	0.0872	0.2172	0.17	0.3872	F	F	26.4	635.4	261	471.75403460025	0.60333003996478	92	3	4	5	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-11 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	354	68	55.01	47.1	51.055	0.0466	0.5266	0.4	0.9266	F	F	23.01	621.01	261	471.75403460025	0.48302172981518	92	2	4	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-11 07:50:44	FORECAST	2020	354	68	45.24	43.83	44.535	0.0268	0.8368	0.27	1.1068	F	F	13.24	601.24	261	471.75403460025	0.17868537256057	92	1	4	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-11 03:59:39	FORECAST	2020	354	68	45.25	44.93	45.09	0.0071	0.8171	0.26	1.0771	F	F	13.25	601.25	261	471.75403460025	0.17892024880146	92	1	4	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH