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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 15, 2020

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DAY 351 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/16/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 67.22°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 54.83°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 61.03°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.800 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 35 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 544 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.19 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.19 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 258 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 470.31 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 65 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 4 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 27.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-16 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	351	65	67.22006	54.82994	61.025	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	35.22006	544.22006	258	470.30774239242	0.80025553173313	92	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	56.33	56.33	56.33	0.0008	0.0008	0.19	0.1908	F	F	24.33	533.33	259	470.791672921	0.46673439420862	92	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-09-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	69.59	56.73	63.16	0.0304	0.0304	0.19	0.2204	F	F	37.59	546.59	259	470.791672921	0.85179597216246	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	351	65	65.01	52.29	58.65	0.0457	0.0457	0.19	0.2357	F	F	33.01	542.01	259	470.791672921	0.74362765778398	92	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-15 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	351	65	68.45	53.29	60.87	0.0551	0.0551	0.19	0.2451	F	F	36.45	545.45	259	470.791672921	0.82822265537613	92	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	68.73	51.99	60.36	0.0899	0.0899	0.19	0.2799	F	F	36.73	539.73	258	470.30774239242	0.83422284729208	92	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-14 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	68.99	50.87	59.93	0.0745	0.0845	0.19	0.2745	F	F	36.99	551.99	258	470.30774239242	0.83967191522928	92	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	69.85	51.15	60.5	0.0493	0.0593	0.19	0.2493	F	F	37.85	552.85	258	470.30774239242	0.85685463245316	92	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-14 11:59:27	FORECAST	2020	351	65	68.09	52.51	60.3	0.1488	0.1588	0.19	0.3488	F	F	36.09	551.09	258	470.30774239242	0.82030749326411	92	4	3	4	2	5	1	110	DRY	VH
2020-09-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	351	65	67.95	51.59	59.77	0.1262	0.1362	0.19	0.3262	F	F	35.95	549.95	258	470.30774239242	0.81716860284109	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-14 03:59:29	FORECAST	2020	351	65	67.28	52.18	59.73	0.1448	0.1648	0.19	0.3548	F	F	35.28	546.28	258	470.30774239242	0.80167877941899	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-14 00:05:08	FORECAST	2020	351	65	63.85	51.23	57.54	0.198	0.218	0.19	0.408	F	F	31.85	546.85	258	470.30774239242	0.71086976717223	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	351	65	64.86	51.21	58.035	0.2223	0.2423	0.19	0.4323	F	F	32.86	563.86	258	470.30774239242	0.7395030237056	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-13 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	64.37	51.73	58.05	0.2169	0.2369	0.19	0.4269	F	F	32.37	563.37	258	470.30774239242	0.7257953952422	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	64.95	51	57.975	0.1729	0.2629	0.19	0.4529	F	F	32.95	560.95	258	470.30774239242	0.74198189245725	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	351	65	64.97	50.16	57.565	0.1754	0.2454	0.19	0.4354	F	F	32.97	560.97	258	470.30774239242	0.7425310882545	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	351	65	63.79	49.86	56.825	0.224	0.284	0.19	0.474	F	F	31.79	555.79	258	470.30774239242	0.70912331951099	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-13 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	351	65	64.97	50.36	57.665	0.2078	0.3178	0.19	0.5078	F	F	32.97	551.97	258	470.30774239242	0.7425310882545	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-12 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	64.19	50.18	57.185	0.4697	0.6297	0.2	0.8297	F	F	32.19	571.19	258	470.30774239242	0.72067206429448	92	4	3	4	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 15:59:34	FORECAST	2020	351	65	63.29	49.97	56.63	0.495	0.645	0.2	0.845	F	F	31.29	570.29	258	470.30774239242	0.69438172564656	92	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	351	65	57.82	50.51	54.165	0.3147	0.3447	0.2	0.5447	F	F	25.82	565.82	258	470.30774239242	0.51723216719009	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-09-12 07:50:39	FORECAST	2020	351	65	57.98	50.62	54.3	0.1876	0.1976	0.2	0.3976	F	F	25.98	560.98	258	470.30774239242	0.5226526478896	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-09-12 04:05:07	FORECAST	2020	351	65	63.33	50.95	57.14	0.3959	0.4159	0.2	0.6159	F	F	31.33	569.33	258	470.30774239242	0.69557315554444	92	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-09-12 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	65.43	49.54	57.485	0.1675	0.1775	0.2	0.3775	F	F	33.43	562.43	258	470.30774239242	0.75499325324462	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-11 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	63.83	49.48	56.655	0.3005	0.3005	0.2	0.5005	F	F	31.83	578.83	258	470.30774239242	0.71028816543566	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	64.56	50.53	57.545	0.1648	0.1748	0.19	0.3648	F	F	32.56	577.56	258	470.30774239242	0.73115257852689	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-11 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	66.88	51.07	58.975	0.2925	0.4025	0.19	0.5925	F	F	34.88	581.88	258	470.30774239242	0.79206555375244	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-11 07:50:44	FORECAST	2020	351	65	67.42	50.35	58.885	0.1352	0.2552	0.2	0.4552	F	F	35.42	583.42	258	470.30774239242	0.80497913838366	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-11 03:59:39	FORECAST	2020	351	65	67.42	50.34	58.88	0.1352	0.2552	0.19	0.4452	F	F	35.42	583.42	258	470.30774239242	0.80497913838366	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	351	65	67.42	50.34	58.88	0.1352	0.2552	0.19	0.4452	F	F	35.42	586.42	258	470.30774239242	0.80497913838366	92	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	65.94	50.67	58.305	0.2562	0.3762	0.2	0.5762	F	F	33.94	602.94	258	470.30774239242	0.76842211813204	92	4	3	5	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 16:05:03	FORECAST	2020	351	65	65.95	50.66	58.305	0.2562	0.3762	0.2	0.5762	F	F	33.95	602.95	258	470.30774239242	0.76868126979893	92	4	3	5	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	65.95	50.65	58.3	0.2562	0.3762	0.2	0.5762	F	F	33.95	602.95	258	470.30774239242	0.76868126979893	92	4	3	5	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	351	65	63.1	49.84	56.47	0.297	0.637	0.2	0.837	F	F	31.1	598.1	258	470.30774239242	0.6886944804639	92	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-10 03:59:41	FORECAST	2020	351	65	62.68	49.51	56.095	0.297	0.637	0.19	0.827	F	F	30.68	595.68	258	470.30774239242	0.67596335322574	92	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	351	65	59.77	47.46	53.615	0.4983	0.5383	0.2	0.7383	F	F	27.77	598.77	258	470.30774239242	0.58277969935366	92	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	59.77	47.46	53.615	0.4983	0.5383	0.19	0.7283	F	F	27.77	611.77	258	470.30774239242	0.58277969935366	92	3	3	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-09 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	55.79	45	50.395	0.5918	0.7318	0.19	0.9218	F	F	23.79	604.79	258	470.30774239242	0.44852228459213	92	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2020-09-09 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	59.82	45.71	52.765	0.2319	0.3719	0.19	0.5619	F	F	27.82	602.82	258	470.30774239242	0.58443834928014	92	3	3	5	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	351	65	59.81	45.73	52.77	0.2319	0.3719	0.2	0.5719	F	F	27.81	602.81	258	470.30774239242	0.58410673860887	92	3	3	5	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	351	65	58.42	43.62	51.02	0.4755	0.5555	0.2	0.7555	F	F	26.42	604.42	258	470.30774239242	0.53753437609181	92	3	3	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2020-09-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	351	65	58.92	46.44	52.68	0.0664	0.1464	0.2	0.3464	F	F	26.92	601.92	258	470.30774239242	0.55438074230974	92	3	3	5	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	58.91	48.41	53.66	0.0653	0.1453	0.21	0.3553	F	F	26.91	612.91	258	470.30774239242	0.55404467244664	92	3	3	5	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-08 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	351	65	59.25	46.71	52.98	0.0341	0.4441	0.21	0.6541	F	F	27.25	609.25	258	470.30774239242	0.56544770903366	92	3	3	5	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-08 11:59:59	FORECAST	2020	351	65	55.1	46.57	50.835	0.161	0.161	0.2	0.361	F	F	23.1	608.1	258	470.30774239242	0.42541324753979	92	2	3	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-09-08 07:59:59	FORECAST	2020	351	65	48.54	46.57	47.555	0.1435	0.1435	0.2	0.3435	F	F	16.54	596.54	258	470.30774239242	0.22787055889469	92	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2020-09-08 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	351	65	47.53	47.12	47.325	0.0574	0.0574	0.2	0.2574	F	F	15.53	605.53	258	470.30774239242	0.20276590426876	92	1	3	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L