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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 14, 2020

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DAY 350 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/15/2020 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 61.74°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 54.00°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 57.87°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.626 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 30 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 541 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.19 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.19 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 257 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 469.82 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 64 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 25.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-15 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2020	350	64	61.73996	53.99996	57.86996	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	29.73996	540.73996	257	469.82196942943	0.62556564030935	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	350	64	55.75	55.75	55.75	0.0011	0.0011	0.19	0.1911	F	F	23.75	534.75	258	470.30774239242	0.42420203698975	94	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-09-14 11:59:27	FORECAST	2020	350	64	68.2	53.85	61.025	0.0134	0.0134	0.19	0.2034	F	F	36.2	547.2	258	470.30774239242	0.80829382202325	94	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-09-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	350	64	67	48.79	57.895	0.0133	0.0133	0.19	0.2033	F	F	35	546	258	470.30774239242	0.77910068670184	94	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-14 03:59:29	FORECAST	2020	350	64	63.85	49.13	56.49	0.0159	0.0159	0.19	0.2059	F	F	31.85	542.85	258	470.30774239242	0.69154819112755	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-14 00:05:08	FORECAST	2020	350	64	67.55	47.85	57.7	0.0227	0.0227	0.19	0.2127	F	F	35.55	546.55	257	469.82196942943	0.79278460300457	94	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	350	64	66.57	47.12	56.845	0.012	0.022	0.19	0.212	F	F	34.57	562.57	257	469.82196942943	0.7680518487771	94	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-13 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	350	64	67.03	49.67	58.35	0.0072	0.0172	0.19	0.2072	F	F	35.03	563.03	257	469.82196942943	0.77986014620565	94	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	350	64	64.29	48.64	56.465	0.0794	0.0894	0.19	0.2794	F	F	32.29	560.29	257	469.82196942943	0.70464351294376	94	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	350	64	64.89	48.73	56.81	0.0457	0.0657	0.19	0.2557	F	F	32.89	559.89	257	469.82196942943	0.72207675073195	94	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	350	64	64.53	48.6	56.565	0.0469	0.0569	0.19	0.2469	F	F	32.53	555.53	257	469.82196942943	0.71167698242022	94	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-13 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	350	64	64.78	48.78	56.78	0.1026	0.1126	0.19	0.3026	F	F	32.78	550.78	257	469.82196942943	0.7189185181083	94	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-12 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	350	64	65.06	48.64	56.85	0.146	0.166	0.19	0.356	F	F	33.06	571.06	257	469.82196942943	0.72692336743302	94	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-12 15:59:34	FORECAST	2020	350	64	64.89	48.52	56.705	0.139	0.159	0.19	0.349	F	F	32.89	570.89	257	469.82196942943	0.72207675073195	94	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	350	64	64.74	48.12	56.43	0.0282	0.0382	0.19	0.2282	F	F	32.74	571.74	257	469.82196942943	0.7177657915019	94	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-12 07:50:39	FORECAST	2020	350	64	60.03	48.27	54.15	0.0149	0.0249	0.19	0.2149	F	F	28.03	567.03	257	469.82196942943	0.56913544911651	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-12 04:05:07	FORECAST	2020	350	64	63.57	47.58	55.575	0.0209	0.0309	0.19	0.2209	F	F	31.57	569.57	257	469.82196942943	0.68308472766685	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-12 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	350	64	64.51	48.16	56.335	0.005	0.015	0.19	0.205	F	F	32.51	560.51	257	469.82196942943	0.71109388397526	94	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-11 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	350	64	63.82	48.04	55.93	0.0036	0.0136	0.19	0.2036	F	F	31.82	578.82	257	469.82196942943	0.69064613492677	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	350	64	62.97	47.5	55.235	0.0135	0.0135	0.19	0.2035	F	F	30.97	576.97	257	469.82196942943	0.6646276069592	94	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-11 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	350	64	64.16	45.46	54.81	0.1084	0.1084	0.19	0.2984	F	F	32.16	579.16	257	469.82196942943	0.70080107992281	94	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-11 07:50:44	FORECAST	2020	350	64	65	46.74	55.87	0.1221	0.1221	0.2	0.3221	F	F	33	580	257	469.82196942943	0.72521758367584	94	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-11 03:59:39	FORECAST	2020	350	64	65	46.73	55.865	0.1221	0.1221	0.19	0.3121	F	F	33	580	257	469.82196942943	0.72521758367584	94	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	350	64	65	46.87	55.935	0.1215	0.1215	0.19	0.3115	F	F	33	583	257	469.82196942943	0.72521758367584	94	4	3	4	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	350	64	64.48	46.84	55.66	0.1198	0.1198	0.2	0.3198	F	F	32.48	601.48	257	469.82196942943	0.71021819837196	94	4	3	5	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 16:05:03	FORECAST	2020	350	64	64.48	46.83	55.655	0.1198	0.1198	0.2	0.3198	F	F	32.48	601.48	257	469.82196942943	0.71021819837196	94	4	3	5	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	350	64	64.48	46.82	55.65	0.1198	0.1198	0.2	0.3198	F	F	32.48	601.48	257	469.82196942943	0.71021819837196	94	4	3	5	2	5	2	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	350	64	62.64	48.22	55.43	0.3405	0.3405	0.2	0.5405	F	F	30.64	598.64	257	469.82196942943	0.65430058225584	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-09-10 03:59:41	FORECAST	2020	350	64	62.21	47.96	55.085	0.3405	0.3405	0.19	0.5305	F	F	30.21	597.21	257	469.82196942943	0.64067109568095	94	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2020-09-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	350	64	64.75	48.23	56.49	0.0395	0.0395	0.2	0.2395	F	F	32.75	602.75	257	469.82196942943	0.71805418610215	94	4	3	5	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2020-09-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	350	64	64.75	48.22	56.485	0.0395	0.0395	0.19	0.2295	F	F	32.75	615.75	257	469.82196942943	0.71805418610215	94	4	3	5	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2020-09-09 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	350	64	61.17	48.3	54.735	0.1431	0.1431	0.19	0.3331	F	F	29.17	613.17	257	469.82196942943	0.60698940463407	94	3	3	5	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-09 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	350	64	59.92	45.29	52.605	0.1417	0.1417	0.19	0.3317	F	F	27.92	606.92	257	469.82196942943	0.5654430874106	94	3	3	5	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	350	64	59.91	45.29	52.6	0.1417	0.1417	0.2	0.3417	F	F	27.91	606.91	257	469.82196942943	0.56510712993397	94	3	3	5	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	350	64	59.42	45.63	52.525	0.0798	0.0798	0.2	0.2798	F	F	27.42	610.42	257	469.82196942943	0.54859231991357	94	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	350	64	61.53	45.61	53.57	0.0829	0.0829	0.2	0.2829	F	F	29.53	606.53	257	469.82196942943	0.6187538806799	94	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	350	64	61.53	45.61	53.57	0.0829	0.0829	0.21	0.2929	F	F	29.53	617.53	257	469.82196942943	0.6187538806799	94	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-08 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	350	64	58.97	45.65	52.31	0.4116	0.4116	0.21	0.6216	F	F	26.97	613.97	257	469.82196942943	0.5333505012374	94	3	3	5	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2020-09-08 11:59:59	FORECAST	2020	350	64	59.92	46.1	53.01	0.0034	0.0034	0.2	0.2034	F	F	27.92	616.92	257	469.82196942943	0.5654430874106	94	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-08 07:59:59	FORECAST	2020	350	64	59.91	46.1	53.005	0.0034	0.0034	0.2	0.2034	F	F	27.91	611.91	257	469.82196942943	0.56510712993397	94	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-08 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	350	64	60.9	46.21	53.555	0.0009	0.0009	0.2	0.2009	F	F	28.9	621.9	257	469.82196942943	0.59810082805968	94	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-07 23:50:53	FORECAST	2020	350	64	62.69	49.49	56.09	0.0076	0.0076	0.2	0.2076	F	F	30.69	630.69	257	469.82196942943	0.6558729131123	94	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-07 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	350	64	59.94	50.09	55.015	0.0044	0.0044	0.2	0.2044	F	F	27.94	627.94	257	469.82196942943	0.56611486038806	94	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-07 15:59:52	FORECAST	2020	350	64	62.68	52.78	57.73	0.0002	0.0002	0.19	0.1902	F	F	30.68	629.68	257	469.82196942943	0.65555866126179	94	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-07 11:59:59	FORECAST	2020	350	64	67.74	58.64	63.19	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	35.74	626.74	257	469.82196942943	0.79739293809449	94	4	3	5	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2020-09-07 07:59:50	FORECAST	2020	350	64	59.92	58.64	59.28	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	27.92	620.92	257	469.82196942943	0.5654430874106	94	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-07 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	350	64	59.14	58.34	58.74	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	27.14	619.14	257	469.82196942943	0.53911549494793	94	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L