Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 13, 2020

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DAY 349 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/14/2020 12:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.60°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.60°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.60°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.321 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 22 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 539 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.19 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.19 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 256 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 469.82 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 63 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 3 D2: 4 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 22.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-14 00:05:08	FORECAST	2020	349	63	53.6	53.6	53.6	0	0.0029	0.0029	0.19	0.1929	F	F	21.6	538.6	257	469.82196942943	0	0.32053721775466	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-09-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	349	63	70.77	53.13	61.95	0	0.0094	0.0094	0.19	0.1994	F	F	38.77	555.77	257	469.82196942943	0	0.88166449699583	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-13 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	349	63	70.25	47.28	58.765	0	0.0152	0.0152	0.19	0.2052	F	F	38.25	555.25	257	469.82196942943	0	0.87146431130334	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	349	63	66.42	48.98	57.7	0	0.0075	0.0075	0.19	0.1975	F	F	34.42	551.42	257	469.82196942943	0	0.77793092185071	96	4	3	4	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2020-09-13 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	349	63	70.31	48.97	59.64	0	0.0122	0.0122	0.19	0.2022	F	F	38.31	546.31	256	469.33434701745	0	0.87267136962594	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-12 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	349	63	70.89	47.41	59.15	0	0.0087	0.0187	0.19	0.2087	F	F	38.89	565.89	256	469.33434701745	0	0.88393505317957	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-12 15:59:34	FORECAST	2020	349	63	71.31	49.33	60.32	0	0.006	0.016	0.19	0.206	F	F	39.31	566.31	256	469.33434701745	0	0.89163872309758	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	349	63	71.89	50.21	61.05	0	0.0029	0.0129	0.19	0.2029	F	F	39.89	566.89	256	469.33434701745	0	0.90166394170745	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-12 07:50:39	FORECAST	2020	349	63	71.79	50.96	61.375	0	0.0013	0.0113	0.19	0.2013	F	F	39.79	566.79	256	469.33434701745	0	0.89998555399053	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-12 04:05:07	FORECAST	2020	349	63	71.58	51.01	61.295	0	0.0006	0.0106	0.19	0.2006	F	F	39.58	565.58	256	469.33434701745	0	0.89639327162254	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-12 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	349	63	72.15	51.74	61.945	0	0.002	0.012	0.19	0.202	F	F	40.15	556.15	256	469.33434701745	0	0.90593134877921	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-11 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	349	63	72.2	51	61.6	0	0.0028	0.0128	0.19	0.2028	F	F	40.2	575.2	256	469.33434701745	0	0.90673615046277	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	349	63	72.13	51.07	61.6	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.19	0.1916	F	F	40.13	574.13	256	469.33434701745	0	0.905608002124	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-11 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	349	63	72.27	50.87	61.57	0	0.0028	0.0028	0.19	0.1928	F	F	40.27	575.27	256	469.33434701745	0	0.9078543381972	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-11 07:50:44	FORECAST	2020	349	63	71.03	50.54	60.785	0	0.0013	0.0113	0.19	0.2013	F	F	39.03	575.03	256	469.33434701745	0	0.88654486125727	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-11 03:59:39	FORECAST	2020	349	63	71.03	50.55	60.79	0	0.0013	0.0013	0.19	0.1913	F	F	39.03	575.03	256	469.33434701745	0	0.88654486125727	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	349	63	72.06	50.72	61.39	0	0.0008	0.0008	0.19	0.1908	F	F	40.06	578.06	256	469.33434701745	0	0.90446985614476	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	349	63	72.46	51.89	62.175	0	0.001	0.001	0.2	0.201	F	F	40.46	597.46	256	469.33434701745	0	0.91083950933644	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 16:05:03	FORECAST	2020	349	63	72.46	51.9	62.18	0	0.001	0.001	0.2	0.201	F	F	40.46	597.46	256	469.33434701745	0	0.91083950933644	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	349	63	72.46	51.92	62.19	0	0.001	0.001	0.2	0.201	F	F	40.46	597.46	256	469.33434701745	0	0.91083950933644	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	349	63	71.94	51.35	61.645	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.2	0.2016	F	F	39.94	595.94	256	469.33434701745	0	0.90249538420875	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 03:59:41	FORECAST	2020	349	63	71.93	51.25	61.59	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.19	0.1916	F	F	39.93	594.93	256	469.33434701745	0	0.90232950816996	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	349	63	73.74	51.43	62.585	0	0.0022	0.0022	0.2	0.2022	F	F	41.74	597.74	256	469.33434701745	0	0.92910654725499	96	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	349	63	73.74	51.44	62.59	0	0.0022	0.0022	0.19	0.1922	F	F	41.74	610.74	256	469.33434701745	0	0.92910654725499	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-09 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	349	63	73.77	50.79	62.28	0	0.0022	0.0022	0.19	0.1922	F	F	41.77	611.77	256	469.33434701745	0	0.92949741821904	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-09 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	349	63	72.5	49.51	61.005	0	0.0004	0.0004	0.19	0.1904	F	F	40.5	606.5	256	469.33434701745	0	0.91145872318234	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	349	63	72.5	49.51	61.005	0	0.0004	0.0004	0.2	0.2004	F	F	40.5	606.5	256	469.33434701745	0	0.91145872318234	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	349	63	71.84	49.81	60.825	0	0.0005	0.0005	0.2	0.2005	F	F	39.84	610.84	256	469.33434701745	0	0.90082733582631	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	349	63	71.25	50.99	61.12	0	0.003	0.003	0.2	0.203	F	F	39.25	605.25	256	469.33434701745	0	0.89056123320392	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	349	63	71.24	50.99	61.115	0	0.003	0.003	0.21	0.213	F	F	39.24	616.24	256	469.33434701745	0	0.89038090840018	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-08 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	349	63	66.98	48.9	57.94	0	0.003	0.003	0.21	0.213	F	F	34.98	614.98	256	469.33434701745	0	0.79361534840386	96	4	3	5	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2020-09-08 11:59:59	FORECAST	2020	349	63	73.38	51.6	62.49	0	0.0004	0.0004	0.2	0.2004	F	F	41.38	617.38	256	469.33434701745	0	0.9242858059969	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-08 07:59:59	FORECAST	2020	349	63	73.38	51.6	62.49	0	0.0004	0.0004	0.2	0.2004	F	F	41.38	612.38	256	469.33434701745	0	0.9242858059969	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-08 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	349	63	72.68	51.53	62.105	0	0.0004	0.0004	0.2	0.2004	F	F	40.68	620.68	256	469.33434701745	0	0.91420571082178	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-07 23:50:53	FORECAST	2020	349	63	77.32	58.91	68.115	0	0.0006	0.0006	0.2	0.2006	F	F	45.32	628.32	256	469.33434701745	0	0.96517924742559	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-07 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	349	63	77.14	57.63	67.385	0	0.0008	0.0008	0.2	0.2008	F	F	45.14	628.14	256	469.33434701745	0	0.96382189289592	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-07 15:59:52	FORECAST	2020	349	63	77.39	58.21	67.8	0	0.0008	0.0008	0.19	0.1908	F	F	45.39	627.39	256	469.33434701745	0	0.9656957217083	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-07 11:59:59	FORECAST	2020	349	63	74.92	56.59	65.755	0	0.0012	0.0012	0.19	0.1912	F	F	42.92	618.92	256	469.33434701745	0	0.9432705489197	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-07 07:59:50	FORECAST	2020	349	63	74.92	56.59	65.755	0	0.0012	0.0012	0.2	0.2012	F	F	42.92	620.92	256	469.33434701745	0	0.9432705489197	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-07 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	349	63	73.88	56.6	65.24	0	0.0009	0.0009	0.2	0.2009	F	F	41.88	619.88	256	469.33434701745	0	0.93091649691216	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	349	63	72.87	56.42	64.645	0	0.0012	0.0012	0.2	0.2012	F	F	40.87	614.87	256	469.33434701745	0	0.91703579968233	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-06 20:00:00	FORECAST	2020	349	63	75.16	56.42	65.79	0	0.0009	0.0009	0.21	0.2109	F	F	43.16	633.16	256	469.33434701745	0	0.94585894689742	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-06 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	349	63	75.8	55.6	65.7	0	0.0009	0.0009	0.2	0.2009	F	F	43.8	631.8	256	469.33434701745	0	0.95230724531492	96	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-06 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	349	63	66.03	55.56	60.795	0	0.0003	0.0003	0.2	0.2003	F	F	34.03	621.03	256	469.33434701745	0	0.76661803654569	96	4	3	5	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2020-09-06 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	349	63	56.95	55.56	56.255	0	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	24.95	612.95	256	469.33434701745	0	0.44258330677596	96	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-06 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	349	63	57.96	57.29	57.625	0	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	25.96	616.96	256	469.33434701745	0	0.48109264322047	96	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L