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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 13, 2020

[ Saturday, September 12, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, September 14, 2020 ]

DAY 349 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/14/2020 12:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 53.60°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.60°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 53.60°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.321
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 539

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.19 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 256
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 469.82 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 63

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-14 00:05:08FORECAST20203496353.653.653.600.00290.00290.190.1929FF21.6538.6257469.8219694294300.320537217754669623415222.5DRYL
2020-09-13 12:00:02FORECAST20203496370.7753.1361.9500.00940.00940.190.1994FF38.77555.77257469.8219694294300.881664496995839653415160DRYH
2020-09-13 08:00:04FORECAST20203496370.2547.2858.76500.01520.01520.190.2052FF38.25555.25257469.8219694294300.871464311303349653415160DRYH
2020-09-13 04:00:03FORECAST20203496366.4248.9857.700.00750.00750.190.1975FF34.42551.42257469.8219694294300.777930921850719643415227.5DRYL
2020-09-13 00:00:03FORECAST20203496370.3148.9759.6400.01220.01220.190.2022FF38.31546.31256469.3343470174500.872671369625949653415160DRYH
2020-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20203496370.8947.4159.1500.00870.01870.190.2087FF38.89565.89256469.3343470174500.883935053179579653415160DRYH
2020-09-12 15:59:34FORECAST20203496371.3149.3360.3200.0060.0160.190.206FF39.31566.31256469.3343470174500.891638723097589653415160DRYH
2020-09-12 12:00:04FORECAST20203496371.8950.2161.0500.00290.01290.190.2029FF39.89566.89256469.3343470174500.901663941707459653415160DRYH
2020-09-12 07:50:39FORECAST20203496371.7950.9661.37500.00130.01130.190.2013FF39.79566.79256469.3343470174500.899985553990539653415160DRYH
2020-09-12 04:05:07FORECAST20203496371.5851.0161.29500.00060.01060.190.2006FF39.58565.58256469.3343470174500.896393271622549653415160DRYH
2020-09-12 00:00:02FORECAST20203496372.1551.7461.94500.0020.0120.190.202FF40.15556.15256469.3343470174500.905931348779219653415160DRYH
2020-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20203496372.25161.600.00280.01280.190.2028FF40.2575.2256469.3343470174500.906736150462779653415160DRYH
2020-09-11 16:00:02FORECAST20203496372.1351.0761.600.00160.00160.190.1916FF40.13574.13256469.3343470174500.9056080021249653415160DRYH
2020-09-11 12:00:02FORECAST20203496372.2750.8761.5700.00280.00280.190.1928FF40.27575.27256469.3343470174500.90785433819729653415160DRYH
2020-09-11 07:50:44FORECAST20203496371.0350.5460.78500.00130.01130.190.2013FF39.03575.03256469.3343470174500.886544861257279653415160DRYH
2020-09-11 03:59:39FORECAST20203496371.0350.5560.7900.00130.00130.190.1913FF39.03575.03256469.3343470174500.886544861257279653415160DRYH
2020-09-11 00:00:03FORECAST20203496372.0650.7261.3900.00080.00080.190.1908FF40.06578.06256469.3343470174500.904469856144769653415160DRYH
2020-09-10 20:00:02FORECAST20203496372.4651.8962.17500.0010.0010.20.201FF40.46597.46256469.3343470174500.910839509336449653415160DRYH
2020-09-10 16:05:03FORECAST20203496372.4651.962.1800.0010.0010.20.201FF40.46597.46256469.3343470174500.910839509336449653415160DRYH
2020-09-10 12:00:02FORECAST20203496372.4651.9262.1900.0010.0010.20.201FF40.46597.46256469.3343470174500.910839509336449653415160DRYH
2020-09-10 08:00:03FORECAST20203496371.9451.3561.64500.00160.00160.20.2016FF39.94595.94256469.3343470174500.902495384208759653415160DRYH
2020-09-10 03:59:41FORECAST20203496371.9351.2561.5900.00160.00160.190.1916FF39.93594.93256469.3343470174500.902329508169969653415160DRYH
2020-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST20203496373.7451.4362.58500.00220.00220.20.2022FF41.74597.74256469.3343470174500.929106547254999653415160DRYH
2020-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20203496373.7451.4462.5900.00220.00220.190.1922FF41.74610.74256469.3343470174500.929106547254999653515165DRYH
2020-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST20203496373.7750.7962.2800.00220.00220.190.1922FF41.77611.77256469.3343470174500.929497418219049653515165DRYH
2020-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20203496372.549.5161.00500.00040.00040.190.1904FF40.5606.5256469.3343470174500.911458723182349653515165DRYH
2020-09-09 08:00:03FORECAST20203496372.549.5161.00500.00040.00040.20.2004FF40.5606.5256469.3343470174500.911458723182349653515165DRYH
2020-09-09 04:00:08FORECAST20203496371.8449.8160.82500.00050.00050.20.2005FF39.84610.84256469.3343470174500.900827335826319653515165DRYH
2020-09-09 00:00:03FORECAST20203496371.2550.9961.1200.0030.0030.20.203FF39.25605.25256469.3343470174500.890561233203929653515165DRYH
2020-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20203496371.2450.9961.11500.0030.0030.210.213FF39.24616.24256469.3343470174500.890380908400189653515165DRYH
2020-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20203496366.9848.957.9400.0030.0030.210.213FF34.98614.98256469.3343470174500.793615348403869643515230DRYL
2020-09-08 11:59:59FORECAST20203496373.3851.662.4900.00040.00040.20.2004FF41.38617.38256469.3343470174500.92428580599699653515165DRYH
2020-09-08 07:59:59FORECAST20203496373.3851.662.4900.00040.00040.20.2004FF41.38612.38256469.3343470174500.92428580599699653515165DRYH
2020-09-08 04:00:03FORECAST20203496372.6851.5362.10500.00040.00040.20.2004FF40.68620.68256469.3343470174500.914205710821789653515165DRYH
2020-09-07 23:50:53FORECAST20203496377.3258.9168.11500.00060.00060.20.2006FF45.32628.32256469.3343470174500.965179247425599653515165DRYH
2020-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20203496377.1457.6367.38500.00080.00080.20.2008FF45.14628.14256469.3343470174500.963821892895929653515165DRYH
2020-09-07 15:59:52FORECAST20203496377.3958.2167.800.00080.00080.190.1908FF45.39627.39256469.3343470174500.96569572170839653515165DRYH
2020-09-07 11:59:59FORECAST20203496374.9256.5965.75500.00120.00120.190.1912FF42.92618.92256469.3343470174500.94327054891979653515165DRYH
2020-09-07 07:59:50FORECAST20203496374.9256.5965.75500.00120.00120.20.2012FF42.92620.92256469.3343470174500.94327054891979653515165DRYH
2020-09-07 04:00:04FORECAST20203496373.8856.665.2400.00090.00090.20.2009FF41.88619.88256469.3343470174500.930916496912169653515165DRYH
2020-09-07 00:00:03FORECAST20203496372.8756.4264.64500.00120.00120.20.2012FF40.87614.87256469.3343470174500.917035799682339653515165DRYH
2020-09-06 20:00:00FORECAST20203496375.1656.4265.7900.00090.00090.210.2109FF43.16633.16256469.3343470174500.945858946897429653515165DRYH
2020-09-06 16:00:04FORECAST20203496375.855.665.700.00090.00090.20.2009FF43.8631.8256469.3343470174500.952307245314929653515165DRYH
2020-09-06 12:00:01FORECAST20203496366.0355.5660.79500.00030.00030.20.2003FF34.03621.03256469.3343470174500.766618036545699643515230DRYL
2020-09-06 08:00:01FORECAST20203496356.9555.5656.2550000.20.2FF24.95612.95256469.3343470174500.442583306775969623515225DRYL
2020-09-06 04:00:05FORECAST20203496357.9657.2957.6250000.20.2FF25.96616.96256469.3343470174500.481092643220479623515225DRYL