morageology.com :: DFH V2

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 12, 2020

[ Friday, September 11, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, September 13, 2020 ]

DAY 348 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/13/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 60.55°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 50.79°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 55.67°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.559 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 29 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 546 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.20 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.20 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 255 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 468.84 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 62 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 3 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 25.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-13 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	348	62	60.54998	50.79002	55.67	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	28.54998	545.54998	255	468.84486811521	0.55878445325395	95	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-13 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	348	62	51.92	51.92	51.92	0.0042	0.0042	0.2	0.2042	F	F	19.92	536.92	256	469.33434701745	0.25655940992302	95	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-09-12 12:00:04	FORECAST	2020	348	62	71.44	53.08	62.26	0.008	0.008	0.2	0.208	F	F	39.44	556.44	256	469.33434701745	0.87698680911791	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-12 07:50:39	FORECAST	2020	348	62	71.35	51.22	61.285	0.0132	0.0132	0.2	0.2132	F	F	39.35	556.35	256	469.33434701745	0.8752742020898	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-12 04:05:07	FORECAST	2020	348	62	70.1	49.48	59.79	0.0072	0.0072	0.2	0.2072	F	F	38.1	555.1	256	469.33434701745	0.84976346280663	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-12 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	348	62	72.84	49.75	61.295	0.0076	0.0076	0.2	0.2076	F	F	40.84	544.84	255	468.84486811521	0.90153201055668	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-11 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	348	62	72.84	47.81	60.325	0.0053	0.0053	0.2	0.2053	F	F	40.84	563.84	255	468.84486811521	0.90153201055668	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-11 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	348	62	72.43	49.51	60.97	0.0038	0.0038	0.2	0.2038	F	F	40.43	563.43	255	468.84486811521	0.89474628672164	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-11 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	348	62	73.05	50.42	61.735	0.0035	0.0035	0.2	0.2035	F	F	41.05	564.05	255	468.84486811521	0.90488137575734	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-11 07:50:44	FORECAST	2020	348	62	72.92	51.04	61.98	0.0008	0.0108	0.2	0.2108	F	F	40.92	564.92	255	468.84486811521	0.90281796655722	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-11 03:59:39	FORECAST	2020	348	62	72.91	51.05	61.98	0.0008	0.0008	0.2	0.2008	F	F	40.91	564.91	255	468.84486811521	0.9026578971551	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-11 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	348	62	73.9	51.65	62.775	0.0006	0.0006	0.2	0.2006	F	F	41.9	566.9	255	468.84486811521	0.91758585541687	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	348	62	74.1	52.37	63.235	0	0.01	0.2	0.21	F	F	42.1	586.1	255	468.84486811521	0.92038105765488	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 16:05:03	FORECAST	2020	348	62	74.09	52.37	63.23	0	0.01	0.2	0.21	F	F	42.09	586.09	255	468.84486811521	0.92024301729699	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	348	62	74.08	52.17	63.125	0	0.01	0.2	0.21	F	F	42.08	586.08	255	468.84486811521	0.92010479659977	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	348	62	73.49	52.18	62.835	0.0002	0.0102	0.2	0.2102	F	F	41.49	585.49	255	468.84486811521	0.91162651340022	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 03:59:41	FORECAST	2020	348	62	73.3	52.15	62.725	0.0002	0.0002	0.2	0.2002	F	F	41.3	584.3	255	468.84486811521	0.90875875279043	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-10 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	348	62	73.88	52.55	63.215	0.0005	0.0105	0.2	0.2105	F	F	41.88	584.88	255	468.84486811521	0.91730233508759	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-09 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	348	62	73.23	52.93	63.08	0.0007	0.0007	0.2	0.2007	F	F	41.23	598.23	255	468.84486811521	0.90768505571238	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-09 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	348	62	73.94	52.41	63.175	0.001	0.001	0.2	0.201	F	F	41.94	598.94	255	468.84486811521	0.91815070695943	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-09 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	348	62	70.89	51.94	61.415	0.001	0.001	0.2	0.201	F	F	38.89	594.89	255	468.84486811521	0.86626174820317	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	348	62	70.89	51.95	61.42	0.001	0.001	0.21	0.211	F	F	38.89	594.89	255	468.84486811521	0.86626174820317	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2020	348	62	75.88	53.1	64.49	0.0008	0.0008	0.21	0.2108	F	F	43.88	599.88	255	468.84486811521	0.94219557137144	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-09 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	348	62	74.8	50.98	62.89	0.001	0.001	0.21	0.211	F	F	42.8	594.8	255	468.84486811521	0.9296027795345	95	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	348	62	74.79	50.23	62.51	0.001	0.001	0.22	0.221	F	F	42.79	605.79	255	468.84486811521	0.92947706751215	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-08 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	348	62	75.03	51.83	63.43	0.001	0.001	0.22	0.221	F	F	43.03	609.03	255	468.84486811521	0.93244700065581	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-08 11:59:59	FORECAST	2020	348	62	75.77	53.37	64.57	0.0012	0.0012	0.21	0.2112	F	F	43.77	604.77	255	468.84486811521	0.94099988702193	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-08 07:59:59	FORECAST	2020	348	62	75.76	53.37	64.565	0.0012	0.0012	0.21	0.2112	F	F	43.76	599.76	255	468.84486811521	0.94089023656159	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-08 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	348	62	76.48	54.13	65.305	0.0012	0.0012	0.21	0.2112	F	F	44.48	609.48	255	468.84486811521	0.94838655671348	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-07 23:50:53	FORECAST	2020	348	62	76.88	59.03	67.955	0.0005	0.0005	0.21	0.2105	F	F	44.88	611.88	255	468.84486811521	0.95221339351201	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-07 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	348	62	77.92	58.62	68.27	0	0	0.21	0.21	F	F	45.92	611.92	255	468.84486811521	0.96110982050409	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-07 15:59:52	FORECAST	2020	348	62	76.94	58.53	67.735	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	44.94	610.94	255	468.84486811521	0.95276736782114	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-07 11:59:59	FORECAST	2020	348	62	74.72	57.04	65.88	0.0002	0.0002	0.2	0.2002	F	F	42.72	604.72	255	468.84486811521	0.92859226306338	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-07 07:59:50	FORECAST	2020	348	62	74.72	57.04	65.88	0.0002	0.0002	0.21	0.2102	F	F	42.72	606.72	255	468.84486811521	0.92859226306338	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-07 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	348	62	74.89	57.52	66.205	0.0002	0.0002	0.21	0.2102	F	F	42.89	606.89	255	468.84486811521	0.93072647281909	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	348	62	75.08	57.45	66.265	0.0008	0.0008	0.21	0.2108	F	F	43.08	603.08	255	468.84486811521	0.93305343578532	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-06 20:00:00	FORECAST	2020	348	62	75.08	57.45	66.265	0.0008	0.0008	0.22	0.2208	F	F	43.08	619.08	255	468.84486811521	0.93305343578532	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-06 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	348	62	75.31	56.88	66.095	0.0008	0.0008	0.21	0.2108	F	F	43.31	617.31	255	468.84486811521	0.93578912085684	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-06 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	348	62	73.33	56.19	64.76	0.0011	0.0011	0.21	0.2111	F	F	41.33	616.33	255	468.84486811521	0.90921607299716	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-06 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	348	62	73.33	56.19	64.76	0.0011	0.0011	0.21	0.2111	F	F	41.33	617.33	255	468.84486811521	0.90921607299716	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-06 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	348	62	73.52	56.25	64.885	0.0011	0.0011	0.21	0.2111	F	F	41.52	619.52	255	468.84486811521	0.91207312993713	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-06 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	348	62	74.09	56.68	65.385	0.0011	0.0011	0.2	0.2011	F	F	42.09	612.09	255	468.84486811521	0.92024301729699	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	348	62	76.65	57.79	67.22	0.0013	0.0013	0.23	0.2313	F	F	44.65	633.65	255	468.84486811521	0.95004163430069	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	348	62	75.78	57.3	66.54	0.0013	0.0013	0.22	0.2213	F	F	43.78	630.78	255	468.84486811521	0.94110937838351	95	5	3	5	1	5	1	65	DRY	H
2020-09-05 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	348	62	68.86	56.75	62.805	0.0002	0.0002	0.22	0.2202	F	F	36.86	627.86	255	468.84486811521	0.82124609383604	95	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2020-09-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	348	62	57.86	56.75	57.305	0.0002	0.0002	0.21	0.2102	F	F	25.86	616.86	255	468.84486811521	0.45935778162845	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-09-05 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	348	62	58.33	57.92	58.125	0.0002	0.0002	0.21	0.2102	F	F	26.33	620.33	255	468.84486811521	0.47672230425929	95	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L