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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 11, 2020

[ Thursday, September 10, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, September 12, 2020 ]

DAY 347 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/12/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 54.36°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.719
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 543

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.20 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 254
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 468.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 61

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-09-12 04:05:06OBSERVATION20203476167.2000854.3599660.780020000.20.2FF35.20008543.20008254468.35352565462 00.7190884766563992 43415227.5DRYL
2020-09-12 00:00:02FORECAST20203476153.8753.8753.8700.00060.00060.20.2006FF21.87529.87255468.8448681152100.288854863429639223415222.5DRYL
2020-09-11 12:00:02FORECAST20203476172.8754.2563.5600.00180.00180.20.2018FF40.87548.87255468.8448681152100.856311764460979253415160DRYH
2020-09-11 07:50:44FORECAST20203476174.2454.6964.46500.00830.00830.20.2083FF42.24550.24255468.8448681152100.881171791386929253415160DRYH
2020-09-11 03:59:38FORECAST20203476174.2254.764.4600.00290.00290.20.2029FF42.22550.22255468.8448681152100.880832150702939253415160DRYH
2020-09-11 00:00:03FORECAST20203476175.1155.0565.0800.00270.00270.20.2027FF43.11551.11254468.3535256546200.895291597269749253415160DRYH
2020-09-10 20:00:02FORECAST20203476175.1655.5665.36000.010.20.21FF43.16570.16254468.3535256546200.896064599413969253415160DRYH
2020-09-10 16:05:03FORECAST20203476175.1455.5765.355000.010.20.21FF43.14570.14254468.3535256546200.895755895039229253415160DRYH
2020-09-10 12:00:02FORECAST20203476174.8555.665.225000.010.20.21FF42.85569.85254468.3535256546200.891205045775779253415160DRYH
2020-09-10 08:00:03FORECAST20203476174.8355.6165.22000.010.20.21FF42.83569.83254468.3535256546200.890886025674099253415160DRYH
2020-09-10 03:59:41FORECAST20203476174.6655.5765.1150000.20.2FF42.66568.66254468.3535256546200.888147274560139253415160DRYH
2020-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST20203476174.8255.5965.20500.00030.01030.20.2103FF42.82568.82254468.3535256546200.890726264570489253415160DRYH
2020-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20203476174.8155.8265.31500.00130.00130.20.2013FF42.81582.81254468.3535256546200.89056633601979253415160DRYH
2020-09-09 16:00:01FORECAST20203476174.7855.4765.12500.00190.00190.20.2019FF42.78582.78254468.3535256546200.890085545097429253415160DRYH
2020-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20203476174.4755.564.98500.00180.00180.20.2018FF42.47582.47254468.3535256546200.885028725308219253415160DRYH
2020-09-09 08:00:03FORECAST20203476174.4755.564.98500.00180.01180.20.2118FF42.47582.47254468.3535256546200.885028725308219253415160DRYH
2020-09-09 04:00:08FORECAST20203476174.3155.5764.9400.00120.01120.20.2112FF42.31582.31254468.3535256546200.882355164045269253415160DRYH
2020-09-09 00:00:03FORECAST20203476171.1954.8463.01500.0010.0110.20.211FF39.19578.19254468.3535256546200.821347208678479243415155DRYH
2020-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20203476174.1955.0564.6200.00080.01080.210.2208FF42.19589.19254468.3535256546200.880321409731659253415160DRYH
2020-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20203476173.9955.1464.56500.0010.0110.210.221FF41.99591.99254468.3535256546200.876877129532289253415160DRYH
2020-09-08 11:59:59FORECAST20203476170.0154.9862.49500.00190.00190.210.2119FF38.01587.01254468.3535256546200.793843351999639243415155DRYH
2020-09-08 07:59:59FORECAST20203476170.3555.2762.8100.00220.00220.210.2122FF38.35582.35254468.3535256546200.802014171538529243415155DRYH
2020-09-08 04:00:03FORECAST20203476175.5755.5865.57500.00220.00220.210.2122FF43.57590.57254468.3535256546200.902248051004919253415160DRYH
2020-09-07 23:50:53FORECAST20203476175.4958.6967.0900.00110.00110.210.2111FF43.49593.49254468.3535256546200.901063130665669253415160DRYH
2020-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20203476176.3757.366.83500.00050.00050.210.2105FF44.37592.37254468.3535256546200.913531383499519253415160DRYH
2020-09-07 15:59:52FORECAST20203476175.6559.1367.3900.00070.00070.20.2007FF43.65591.65254468.3535256546200.903422568343089253415160DRYH
2020-09-07 11:59:59FORECAST20203476175.6758.867.23500.00050.00050.20.2005FF43.67587.67254468.3535256546200.903714576521129253415160DRYH
2020-09-07 07:59:50FORECAST20203476175.6758.867.23500.00050.00050.210.2105FF43.67589.67254468.3535256546200.903714576521129253415160DRYH
2020-09-07 04:00:04FORECAST20203476175.4858.667.0400.00050.00050.210.2105FF43.48590.48254468.3535256546200.900914282348379253415160DRYH
2020-09-07 00:00:03FORECAST20203476176.2359.4167.820000.210.21FF44.23586.23254468.3535256546200.911630197571379253415160DRYH
2020-09-06 20:00:00FORECAST20203476176.2359.4167.820000.220.22FF44.23602.23254468.3535256546200.911630197571379253515165DRYH
2020-09-06 16:00:04FORECAST20203476173.5759.1466.3550000.210.21FF41.57599.57254468.3535256546200.869420230642149253515165DRYH
2020-09-06 12:00:01FORECAST20203476176.5858.5967.5850000.210.21FF44.58600.58254468.3535256546200.916325773748849253515165DRYH
2020-09-06 08:00:01FORECAST20203476176.5858.5967.5850000.210.21FF44.58601.58254468.3535256546200.916325773748849253515165DRYH
2020-09-06 04:00:05FORECAST20203476176.1858.0667.120000.210.21FF44.18604.18254468.3535256546200.910943732742219253515165DRYH
2020-09-06 00:00:03FORECAST20203476176.5858.7467.660000.20.2FF44.58595.58254468.3535256546200.916325773748849253415160DRYH
2020-09-05 20:00:03FORECAST20203476176.3258.767.5100.00230.00230.230.2323FF44.32615.32254468.3535256546200.912855918300349253515165DRYH
2020-09-05 16:00:03FORECAST20203476176.1158.0767.0900.00230.00230.220.2223FF44.11613.11254468.3535256546200.909976047579719253515165DRYH
2020-09-05 12:00:03FORECAST20203476175.8657.4366.64500.00140.00140.220.2214FF43.86616.86254468.3535256546200.906456453489959253515165DRYH
2020-09-05 08:00:02FORECAST20203476175.8657.4366.64500.00140.00140.210.2114FF43.86616.86254468.3535256546200.906456453489959253515165DRYH
2020-09-05 04:00:04FORECAST20203476176.4558.1367.2900.00140.00140.210.2114FF44.45620.45254468.3535256546200.914604001605389253515165DRYH
2020-09-05 00:00:02FORECAST20203476177.8258.3868.100.00020.00020.210.2102FF45.82599.82254468.3535256546200.931463807864799253515165DRYH
2020-09-04 20:00:03FORECAST20203476177.8260.9169.3650000.220.22FF45.82618.82254468.3535256546200.931463807864799253515165DRYH
2020-09-04 16:00:03FORECAST20203476178.8460.2969.5650000.220.22FF46.84625.84254468.3535256546200.942259133073179253515165DRYH
2020-09-04 12:00:03FORECAST20203476167.3957.362.34500.0010.0010.220.221FF35.39609.39254468.3535256546200.724524178763779243515230DRYL
2020-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20203476159.7957.358.54500.00040.00040.220.2204FF27.79599.79254468.3535256546200.479328071631199223515225DRYL
2020-09-04 04:00:02FORECAST20203476159.7858.3559.06500.00020.00020.220.2202FF27.78601.78254468.3535256546200.478988300692899223515225DRYL