Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 6, 2020

[ Wednesday, August 5, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, August 7, 2020 ]

DAY 311 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/07/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.80°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 38.96°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.38°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.048 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 16 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 566 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.06 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.07 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.00 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.07 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 218 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.25 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 25 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 2 D2: 4 D3: 1 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-07 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	311	25	47.80004	38.96006	43.38005	10.43305	0.060000000000002	0.070000000000002	0	0.070000000000002	F	F	15.80004	565.80004	218	453.24671444175	4.7287456341065	0.04772722774824	96	1	2	4	1	3	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-08-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	41.3	41.3	41.3	6.94916	0.0053	0.0153	0	0.0153	F	F	9.3	559.3	219	452.51450139811	3.1445956725357	0.0094285026839918	96	1	2	4	1	3	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-08-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	46.55	41.75	44.15	7.0841146666667	0.0786	0.0886	0	0.0886	F	F	14.55	564.55	219	452.5643288044	3.2060175992934	0.036080552949394	96	1	2	4	1	3	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-08-06 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	311	25	49.56	42.51	46.035	6.6900226666667	0.1524	0.1624	0	0.1624	F	F	17.56	567.56	219	452.41877587943	3.026691865459	0.068996975663008	96	1	2	4	2	3	2	21	DRY	L
2020-08-06 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	47.68	42.63	45.155	6.0826314166667	0.1905	0.2005	0	0.2005	F	F	15.68	565.68	219	452.19415803939	2.7505303921236	0.046492473677605	96	1	2	4	2	3	2	21	DRY	L
2020-08-06 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	311	25	52.26	42.88	47.57	1.828312	0.1855	0.1955	0	0.1955	F	F	20.26	556.26	218	450.05036471081	0.82283248240514	0.11480811598916	96	1	2	4	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2020-08-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	53.27	42.54	47.905	3.9894146666667	0.2107	0.2507	0	0.2507	F	F	21.27	573.27	218	450.85971766051	1.798666370244	0.13654832336706	96	1	2	4	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2020-08-05 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	311	25	53.38	42.16	47.77	3.9688053333333	0.2122	0.2522	0	0.2522	F	F	21.38	573.38	218	450.85202023748	1.7893439024626	0.13907525775701	96	1	2	4	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2020-08-05 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	311	25	52.31	42.35	47.33	1.9039906666667	0.1769	0.2169	0	0.2169	F	F	20.31	572.31	218	450.07878220015	0.85694580057379	0.11582295242111	96	1	2	4	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2020-08-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	311	25	54.94	42.29	48.615	1.3637746666667	0.217	0.257	0	0.257	F	F	22.94	574.94	218	449.87581029522	0.61352923322676	0.17832260066252	96	1	2	4	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2020-08-05 03:52:19	FORECAST	2020	311	25	49.98	42.19	46.085	1.172004	0.2033	0.2333	0	0.2333	F	F	17.98	566.98	218	449.80369052021	0.52717172450445	0.075015913233776	96	1	2	4	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2020-08-05 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	311	25	50.63	41.52	46.075	0.46396133333333	0.3113	0.3413	0	0.3413	F	F	18.63	572.63	218	449.53711027437	0.20856783706571	0.085106127492637	96	1	2	4	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2020-08-04 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	311	25	49.62	41.52	45.57	2.652452	0.2222	0.2622	0	0.2622	F	F	17.62	586.62	218	450.35953694838	1.1945570544978	0.069833369974442	96	1	2	4	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2020-08-04 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	311	25	54.62	41.98	48.3	2.6198706666667	0.1774	0.2174	0	0.2174	F	F	22.62	591.62	218	450.34732649802	1.1798517505039	0.16975175090639	96	1	2	4	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2020-08-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	49.17	41.8	45.485	0.28194133333333	0.1556	0.1856	0	0.1856	F	F	17.17	586.17	218	449.46850168216	0.1267237486556	0.063746748261162	96	1	2	4	2	4	2	28	DRY	L
2020-08-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	49.14	42.09	45.615	0	0.1846	0.2146	0	0.2146	F	F	17.14	586.14	218	449.36216721666	0	0.06335607882726	96	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-04 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	49.56	42.39	45.975	0	0.1599	0.1999	0	0.1999	F	F	17.56	587.56	218	449.36216721666	0	0.068996975663008	96	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	311	25	51.3	42.07	46.685	0	0.2006	0.2206	0	0.2206	F	F	19.3	574.3	218	449.36216721666	0	0.096533702680638	96	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-03 19:58:25	FORECAST	2020	311	25	51.32	42.7	47.01	0	0.2261	0.2461	0.04	0.2861	F	F	19.32	589.32	218	449.36216721666	0	0.096891304849192	96	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-03 15:52:40	FORECAST	2020	311	25	50.4	42.92	46.66	0	0.2092	0.2192	0.04	0.2592	F	F	18.4	589.4	218	449.36216721666	0	0.08142582606874	96	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-03 11:58:24	FORECAST	2020	311	25	51.97	43.02	47.495	0	0.1387	0.1487	0.04	0.1887	F	F	19.97	590.97	218	449.36216721666	0	0.10904634749202	96	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-03 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	311	25	54.17	43.24	48.705	0	0.1381	0.1481	0.04	0.1881	F	F	22.17	588.17	218	449.36216721666	0	0.15815291139827	96	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-03 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	311	25	53.36	42.28	47.82	0	0.1776	0.1876	0.03	0.2176	F	F	21.36	592.36	218	449.36216721666	0	0.13861346994411	96	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-03 00:04:00	FORECAST	2020	311	25	51.15	41.34	46.245	0	0.1537	0.1637	0.03	0.1937	F	F	19.15	575.15	218	449.36216721666	0	0.093882447626943	96	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-02 20:00:04	FORECAST	2020	311	25	51.9	41.34	46.62	0	0.1612	0.1712	0.04	0.2112	F	F	19.9	591.9	218	449.36216721666	0	0.10768716380984	96	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	52.45	41.13	46.79	0	0.1435	0.1635	0.05	0.2135	F	F	20.45	592.45	218	449.36216721666	0	0.11869822823389	96	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2020-08-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	55.48	43.77	49.625	0	0.0347	0.0347	0.03	0.0647	F	F	23.48	591.48	218	449.36216721666	0	0.19339058222293	96	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-08-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	55.48	43.77	49.625	0	0.0347	0.0347	0.03	0.0647	F	F	23.48	590.48	218	449.36216721666	0	0.19339058222293	96	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-08-02 03:52:45	FORECAST	2020	311	25	55.53	43.97	49.75	0	0.0784	0.0784	0.02	0.0984	F	F	23.53	598.53	218	449.36216721666	0	0.19482392101395	96	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2020-08-02 00:00:05	FORECAST	2020	311	25	52.32	41.38	46.85	0	0.07	0.07	0.02	0.09	F	F	20.32	600.32	218	449.36216721666	0	0.11602667941534	96	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-01 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	311	25	52.32	41.38	46.85	0	0.07	0.07	0.03	0.1	F	F	20.32	616.32	218	449.36216721666	0	0.11602667941534	96	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	53.19	42.04	47.615	0	0.0685	0.0685	0.01	0.0785	F	F	21.19	617.19	218	449.36216721666	0	0.13473033641282	96	1	2	5	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-01 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	57.51	45.39	51.45	0	0.0517	0.0517	0.01	0.0617	F	F	25.51	618.51	218	449.36216721666	0	0.25660643822857	96	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-01 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	311	25	57.51	45.39	51.45	0	0.0517	0.0517	0.02	0.0717	F	F	25.51	613.51	218	449.36216721666	0	0.25660643822857	96	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-01 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	311	25	58.79	45.46	52.125	0	0.0537	0.0537	0.02	0.0737	F	F	26.79	623.79	218	449.36216721666	0	0.30138272807282	96	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-31 23:52:33	FORECAST	2020	311	25	65.83	50.92	58.375	0	0.0019	0.0019	0.04	0.0419	F	F	33.83	627.83	218	449.36216721666	0	0.58444759056069	96	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-07-31 19:52:12	FORECAST	2020	311	25	65.83	50.92	58.375	0	0.0019	0.0019	0.04	0.0419	F	F	33.83	625.83	218	449.36216721666	0	0.58444759056069	96	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-07-31 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	311	25	62.74	50.6	56.67	0	0.0146	0.0146	0.03	0.0446	F	F	30.74	624.74	218	449.36216721666	0	0.45669895640072	96	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-31 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	69.39	51.17	60.28	0	0.0015	0.0015	0.07	0.0715	F	F	37.39	620.39	218	449.36216721666	0	0.72049701724324	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-31 08:03:55	FORECAST	2020	311	25	69.39	51.17	60.28	0	0.0015	0.0015	0.08	0.0815	F	F	37.39	618.39	218	449.36216721666	0	0.72049701724324	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-31 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	69.1	50.9	60	0	0.0017	0.0017	0.09	0.0917	F	F	37.1	620.1	218	449.36216721666	0	0.71024210232226	96	4	2	5	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2020-07-31 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	311	25	67.69	51.52	59.605	0	0.002	0.002	0.09	0.092	F	F	35.69	611.69	218	449.36216721666	0	0.65804563463607	96	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-07-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	311	25	67.69	51.52	59.605	0	0.002	0.002	0.1	0.102	F	F	35.69	624.69	218	449.36216721666	0	0.65804563463607	96	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-07-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	65.39	51.42	58.405	0	0.002	0.002	0.1	0.102	F	F	33.39	627.39	218	449.36216721666	0	0.56648341558682	96	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-07-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	66.65	56.46	61.555	0	0.0006	0.0106	0.13	0.1406	F	F	34.65	622.65	218	449.36216721666	0	0.61743276422706	96	3	2	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-07-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	311	25	58.06	56.46	57.26	0	0	0.01	0.13	0.14	F	F	26.06	613.06	218	449.36216721666	0	0.27541572056857	96	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-07-30 03:52:17	FORECAST	2020	311	25	58.79	57.57	58.18	0	0	0.01	0.1	0.11	F	F	26.79	621.79	218	449.36216721666	0	0.30138272807282	96	2	2	5	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L