Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 29, 2020

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DAY 334 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/30/2020 12:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.65°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.65°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.65°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.040 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 96 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 13 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 528 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.80 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.80 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 241 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 462.31 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 48 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 3 D2: 4 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 20.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-08-30 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	334	48	44.65	44.65	44.65	0	0.0006	0.0006	0.8	0.8006	F	F	12.65	527.65	242	462.30944875246	0	0.039991748152072	96	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-29 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	59.91	44.75	52.33	0	0.0073	0.0073	0.8	0.8073	F	F	27.91	542.91	242	462.30944875246	0	0.42270305799296	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-29 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	334	48	60.82	44.46	52.64	0	0.0069	0.0069	0.8	0.8069	F	F	28.82	543.82	242	462.30944875246	0	0.4592531306738	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-29 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	334	48	59.06	44.37	51.715	0	0.0069	0.0069	0.8	0.8069	F	F	27.06	542.06	242	462.30944875246	0	0.38914768705015	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-29 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	334	48	60.08	44.21	52.145	0	0.0048	0.0048	0.8	0.8048	F	F	28.08	531.08	241	461.79322445274	0	0.42949043637874	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-28 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	334	48	59.16	43.87	51.515	0	0.0138	0.0238	0.8	0.8238	F	F	27.16	550.16	241	461.79322445274	0	0.39305791527847	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-28 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	334	48	59.41	43.8	51.605	0	0.012	0.022	0.8	0.822	F	F	27.41	550.41	241	461.79322445274	0	0.40287998391737	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-28 11:50:40	FORECAST	2020	334	48	59.33	43.28	51.305	0	0.0039	0.0139	0.8	0.8139	F	F	27.33	550.33	241	461.79322445274	0	0.3997299264283	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2020	334	48	58.47	43.46	50.965	0	0.0089	0.0189	0.8	0.8189	F	F	26.47	547.47	241	461.79322445274	0	0.36631734899841	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-28 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	334	48	58.47	43.34	50.905	0	0.0099	0.0199	0.8	0.8199	F	F	26.47	547.47	241	461.79322445274	0	0.36631734899841	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	334	48	59.11	43.35	51.23	0	0.0073	0.0073	0.8	0.8073	F	F	27.11	541.11	241	461.79322445274	0	0.39110142556636	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-27 20:04:41	FORECAST	2020	334	48	58.93	43.44	51.185	0	0.0052	0.0252	0.8	0.8252	F	F	26.93	555.93	241	461.79322445274	0	0.38408117677924	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-27 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	334	48	59.31	43.28	51.295	0	0.0037	0.0137	0.8	0.8137	F	F	27.31	556.31	241	461.79322445274	0	0.39894342178781	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-27 12:04:41	FORECAST	2020	334	48	59.72	43.43	51.575	0	0.0036	0.0136	0.8	0.8136	F	F	27.72	556.72	241	461.79322445274	0	0.41514431668249	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	60.39	43.38	51.885	0	0.0032	0.0132	0.8	0.8132	F	F	28.39	557.39	241	461.79322445274	0	0.44191983992739	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-27 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	334	48	59.66	42.55	51.105	0	0.0047	0.0147	0.8	0.8147	F	F	27.66	555.66	241	461.79322445274	0	0.41276371570684	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	61.24	42.69	51.965	0	0.0015	0.0115	0.79	0.8015	F	F	29.24	543.24	241	461.79322445274	0	0.47625869040699	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	61.24	42.71	51.975	0	0.0015	0.0115	0.8	0.8115	F	F	29.24	564.24	241	461.79322445274	0	0.47625869040699	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-26 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	334	48	61.01	43.01	52.01	0	0.0004	0.0004	0.8	0.8004	F	F	29.01	563.01	241	461.79322445274	0	0.46693877060649	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-26 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	334	48	57.78	44.55	51.165	0	0.0015	0.0015	0.8	0.8015	F	F	25.78	558.78	241	461.79322445274	0	0.34021049545643	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	58.95	44.55	51.75	0	0.0022	0.0022	0.8	0.8022	F	F	26.95	559.95	241	461.79322445274	0	0.3848593761871	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	334	48	63.27	44.35	53.81	0	0.0021	0.0021	0.8	0.8021	F	F	31.27	563.27	241	461.79322445274	0	0.55850278593233	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	63.44	45.41	54.425	0	0.0015	0.0015	0.8	0.8015	F	F	31.44	555.44	241	461.79322445274	0	0.56532566470213	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	63.43	45.4	54.415	0	0.0019	0.0019	0.8	0.8019	F	F	31.43	572.43	241	461.79322445274	0	0.5649248364568	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	64.21	44.11	54.16	0	0.0016	0.0016	0.81	0.8116	F	F	32.21	573.21	241	461.79322445274	0	0.59595743818319	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	65.6	45.26	55.43	0	0.0015	0.0015	0.8	0.8015	F	F	33.6	570.6	241	461.79322445274	0	0.64967596005215	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	334	48	65.6	45.26	55.43	0	0.0015	0.0015	0.8	0.8015	F	F	33.6	571.6	241	461.79322445274	0	0.64967596005215	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	334	48	65.74	47.38	56.56	0	0.0015	0.0015	0.8	0.8015	F	F	33.74	576.74	241	461.79322445274	0	0.65494384051719	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	65.2	47.33	56.265	0	0.0014	0.0014	0.8	0.8014	F	F	33.2	569.2	241	461.79322445274	0	0.63446858486601	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	334	48	65.2	47.33	56.265	0	0.0014	0.0014	0.81	0.8114	F	F	33.2	579.2	241	461.79322445274	0	0.63446858486601	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2020	334	48	65.3	47.17	56.235	0	0.0014	0.0114	0.8	0.8114	F	F	33.3	584.3	241	461.79322445274	0	0.63829138964831	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-24 11:50:54	FORECAST	2020	334	48	64.37	46.63	55.5	0	0.0029	0.0029	0.8	0.8029	F	F	32.37	578.37	241	461.79322445274	0	0.60225581487066	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	64.37	46.62	55.495	0	0.0029	0.0029	0.8	0.8029	F	F	32.37	578.37	241	461.79322445274	0	0.60225581487066	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-24 04:00:06	FORECAST	2020	334	48	64.3	45.84	55.07	0	0.0029	0.0029	0.8	0.8029	F	F	32.3	582.3	241	461.79322445274	0	0.5995034482934	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-23 23:51:20	FORECAST	2020	334	48	60.22	41.11	50.665	0	0	0	0.8	0.8	F	F	28.22	590.22	241	461.79322445274	0	0.43509582660471	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-23 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	60.24	41.11	50.675	0	0	0	0.81	0.81	F	F	28.24	586.24	241	461.79322445274	0	0.43589768969239	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-23 15:58:11	FORECAST	2020	334	48	59.96	42.28	51.12	0	0	0	0.81	0.81	F	F	27.96	584.96	241	461.79322445274	0	0.42469705941358	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	61.48	44.48	52.98	0	0.0037	0.0037	0.81	0.8137	F	F	29.48	589.48	241	461.79322445274	0	0.48599761211684	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	61.5	44.49	52.995	0	0.0037	0.0037	0.8	0.8037	F	F	29.5	589.5	241	461.79322445274	0	0.48680964641155	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-23 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	334	48	64.47	45.84	55.155	0	0.0006	0.0006	0.8	0.8006	F	F	32.47	597.47	241	461.79322445274	0	0.60617892398336	96	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-23 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	61.4	42.8	52.1	0	0.005	0.005	0.79	0.795	F	F	29.4	585.4	241	461.79322445274	0	0.48275008913994	96	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2020-08-22 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	61.4	48.49	54.945	0	0.0037	0.0037	0.8	0.8037	F	F	29.4	606.4	241	461.79322445274	0	0.48275008913994	96	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	334	48	59.68	47.33	53.505	0	0.0037	0.0037	0.8	0.8037	F	F	27.68	604.68	241	461.79322445274	0	0.41355689757625	96	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2020-08-22 12:04:32	FORECAST	2020	334	48	54.2	46.29	50.245	0	0.0079	0.0079	0.8	0.8079	F	F	22.2	595.2	241	461.79322445274	0	0.21872807210243	96	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-22 08:00:05	FORECAST	2020	334	48	48.84	46.28	47.56	0	0.0079	0.0079	0.81	0.8179	F	F	16.84	585.84	241	461.79322445274	0	0.092943917617478	96	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2020-08-22 04:00:07	FORECAST	2020	334	48	47.34	43.49	45.415	0	0.0148	0.0448	0.81	0.8548	F	F	15.34	586.34	241	461.79322445274	0	0.06998066994387	96	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L